May 2014 Sales Discussion

[ilzuccone]

so when we get actual sales numbers this thread will just die out right? it's more fun without them

[BugsySig]

so when we get actual sales numbers this thread will just die out right?

Kinda like VEI

[leonmallett]

so when we get actual sales numbers this thread will just die out right? it's more fun without them

Sounds like a plan.

And woot, page 4 and no figures...

[ilzuccone]

[cjv]

Summarized:

With a linear regression, there is an upward trend of books. However, a linear regression is probably not the best model to use, as it has no upper limit (a linear trend predict that, given enough time, VEI would be selling more books than there are stars in the universe).

A logistic growth may be a more accurate model (for reasons I explained in the post). A logistic growth model, by design, flattens out at some point when an upper limit is reached (it is based on population growth). If we apply a logistic growth, the data suggests that the upper limit is around 85,000 books. Sales may be more on occasion, but they will generally hover around that mark.

A logistic growth model's predicted upper limit can change if the environment (the comic book marketplace) changes. Changes may includes, but are not limited to:

• Another company going out of business
  A movie deal
  Increased marketing/public awareness/long term "buzz" for a book
  Critical recognition for a series
  Economic factors

In short, a "change" is anything that may alter someone's purchasing behavior. Even though we may not have the specific parameters and how they are currently influencing the data, we can use the trends to identify the overall pattern.

Lastly, this is a relatively small sample size. In some cases, if you expand the data out, it becomes possible to notice even more trends that were missed by looking at a smaller subsection. In short, I reserve the right to change my predictions.

Chris

[BugsySig]

I'm still not sure what exactly cjv is predicting... ....perhaps if there was some kind of "chart" we could look at...

[Phoenix8008]

I'm still not sure what exactly cjv is predicting... ....perhaps if there was some kind of "chart" we could look at...

I feel like a total failure as Charticus! If only I was at home, I could whip up some kind of chart to satisfy the masses, but I'm stuck here at work and unable to provide for the wants and needs of the people.

[leonmallett]

I'm still not sure what exactly cjv is predicting... ....perhaps if there was some kind of "chart" we could look at...

If only....

[leonmallett]

I'm still not sure what exactly cjv is predicting... ....perhaps if there was some kind of "chart" we could look at...

I feel like a total failure as Charticus! If only I was at home, I could whip up some kind of chart to satisfy the masses, but I'm stuck here at work and unable to provide for the wants and needs of the people.

You have let yourself down, let the board down, let human-kind down....

[BugsySig]

I'm still not sure what exactly cjv is predicting... ....perhaps if there was some kind of "chart" we could look at...

I feel like a total failure as Charticus! If only I was at home, I could whip up some kind of chart to satisfy the masses, but I'm stuck here at work and unable to provide for the wants and needs of the people.

(Don't worry, we'll protect you...

I am CHARTICUS!

[leonmallett]

I'm still not sure what exactly cjv is predicting... ....perhaps if there was some kind of "chart" we could look at...

I feel like a total failure as Charticus! If only I was at home, I could whip up some kind of chart to satisfy the masses, but I'm stuck here at work and unable to provide for the wants and needs of the people.

(Don't worry, we'll protect you...

I am CHARTICUS!

Prove it - make a chart stat!

[BugsySig]

I'm still not sure what exactly cjv is predicting... ....perhaps if there was some kind of "chart" we could look at...

I feel like a total failure as Charticus! If only I was at home, I could whip up some kind of chart to satisfy the masses, but I'm stuck here at work and unable to provide for the wants and needs of the people.

(Don't worry, we'll protect you...

I am CHARTICUS!

Prove it - make a chart stat!

[leonmallett]

I'm still not sure what exactly cjv is predicting... ....perhaps if there was some kind of "chart" we could look at...

I feel like a total failure as Charticus! If only I was at home, I could whip up some kind of chart to satisfy the masses, but I'm stuck here at work and unable to provide for the wants and needs of the people.

(Don't worry, we'll protect you...

I am CHARTICUS!

Prove it - make a chart stat!

[BugsySig]

[ilzuccone]

Summarized:

With a linear regression, there is an upward trend of books. However, a linear regression is probably not the best model to use, as it has no upper limit (a linear trend predict that, given enough time, VEI would be selling more books than there are stars in the universe).

A logistic growth may be a more accurate model (for reasons I explained in the post). A logisit growht model, be design, flattens out at some point when an upper limit is reached (it is based on population growth). If we apply a logistic growth, the data suggests that the upper limit is around 85,000 books. Sales may be more on occasion, but they will generally hover around that mark.

A logistic growth model's predicted upper limit can change if the environment (the comic book marketplace) changes. Changes may includes, but are not limited to:

• Another company going out of business
  A movie deal
  Increased marketing/public awareness/long term "buzz" for a book
  Critical recognition for a series
  Economic factors

In short, a "change" is anything that may alter someone's purchasing behavior. Even though we may not have the specific parameters and how they are currently influencing the data, we can use the trends to identify the overall pattern.

Lastly, this is a relatively small sample size. In some cases, if you expand the data out, it becomes possible to notice even more trends that were missed by looking at a smaller subsection. In short, I reserve the right to change my predictions.

Chris

wow spoiler alert! if your going to share what happens in the future you could at least black out your post.

[BugsySig]

[leonmallett]

[leonmallett]

We will soon be at page 5 with no data at this rate!

[ilzuccone]

here's something to think about...

[BugsySig]

[leonmallett]

I assume you have plenty more of these?

[Ramses818]

Wow...this thread has just become...wow.

On the bright side 4 pages going on 5! We are sick sick people.

Except for Phoenix who supplied no charts and thus has been stripped of title and faces banishment! Lol

[Phoenix8008]

Wow...this thread has just become...wow.

On the bright side 4 pages going on 5! We are sick sick people.

Except for Phoenix who supplied no charts and thus has been stripped of title and faces banishment! Lol

NNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ilzuccone]

if we start next month's sales discussion now we could probably hit 33 pages by the time they are actually released.

[Phoenix8008]

if we start next month's sales discussion now we could probably hit 33 pages by the time they are actually released.

Not sure if that would be a new record or not for a sales discussion thread...