CGC Harbinger #1 $2550 what does it mean for Valiant?

[Elveen]

Reguardless..... of who is correct or whatever...... this thread is full of good stuff.

[Elveen]

One thing I am really looking forward to is the effect of new Valiant books on the back issue market. (and I think this is a huge part of this discussion)

If VEI's (and I know it is an "if") new books are good and they get some momentum going...... it will be very interesting to see what happens to the back issue market.

I know that Harby #1 9.8 is the big pimp on the corner in the Val uni., (and it will be intresting to see the price of the CGC 9.8s) .....


Let's say the first new book comes out in ..... um..... late Feb/Mar........ I wonder what the back issue prices will be?

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Oh, hey....StarBrand....we're still waiting for you to post the prediction you made about this book back in March......

[Zero]

$2550 isn't chump change. Harbinger #1, if it existed in large numbers, should have come out of the woodwork. It set the record (recently broken) for a 1990's comic, slabbed or not.

But it's been almost 5 months, and only 4-5 more have shown up. Where are the rest of the 9.8s?



If they were out there, and were GOING to be slabbed, they would have been. What more incentive does anyone need? $2550, $2000, even $1225 is far, far, far more....by a factor of TEN or more....than almost ANY raw copy has ever sold for, ever.

Obviously, the incentive exists.

This is the one thing you typed that I don't 100% agree with. My contention is that there are many copies of this book in the hands of people who do not have their 'finger on the pulse' of the current market. This book's current value in high grade is not known to everyone in the 'comic world' in the same way that Amazing Spider-man 1 is. Not everyone uses E-bay. Not everyone reads Wizard. There are many local folks that dabble in comics at flea markets & antique malls. I've come across folks that bought out shops in the late 90s & just moved the back stock to storage. Granted, they are not the type of folks to cgc, but they are the type of folks to sell books to people on this site who will cgc.

At any rate (I know I'm rambling), I don't think it requires that many copies of this book in 9.8 to drop it to the $500-$800 range. How many total 9.8s are out there now? What percent of the total Harbinger 1 9.8 market do those new 4-5 9.8s represent? They were enough to halve the market price. How much would the price drop if another 4-5 copies show up in the next 6 months?

We are a niche market... How many people out there are willing to spend a $1,000 on a comic book? Of those, how many would spend that same $1,000 on a modern comic book? Of those, how many would be willing to drop a grand on a Valiant comic? How many guys would buy multiple Harby 1s for $1,000? I'm just saying that the market is very small & will be supplied by just a handful of copies before the price drops under a $1,000. This book is very tough in 9.8. There's no doubt about that. It deserves a premium over other Valiant 9.8s (other than Solar 10 = different debate). However, the book (rarity-wise ) is not TMNT 1 or Albedo 2. Again, just my opinions. The market will show us who was correct.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

$2550 isn't chump change. Harbinger #1, if it existed in large numbers, should have come out of the woodwork. It set the record (recently broken) for a 1990's comic, slabbed or not.

But it's been almost 5 months, and only 4-5 more have shown up. Where are the rest of the 9.8s?



If they were out there, and were GOING to be slabbed, they would have been. What more incentive does anyone need? $2550, $2000, even $1225 is far, far, far more....by a factor of TEN or more....than almost ANY raw copy has ever sold for, ever.

Obviously, the incentive exists.

This is the one thing you typed that I don't 100% agree with. My contention is that there are many copies of this book in the hands of people who do not have their 'finger on the pulse' of the current market. This book's current value in high grade is not known to everyone in the 'comic world' in the same way that Amazing Spider-man 1 is. Not everyone uses E-bay. Not everyone reads Wizard. There are many local folks that dabble in comics at flea markets & antique malls. I've come across folks that bought out shops in the late 90s & just moved the back stock to storage. Granted, they are not the type of folks to cgc, but they are the type of folks to sell books to people on this site who will cgc.

This is all fair enough, but it's exactly the type of thing I'm talking about: those nebulous potential 9.8s that can't be factored in because it's unknown information.

The $2550 sale was such astounding news that it is hard to say that many folks "in the comics world" hadn't heard about it it in some form. This is entirely unscientific and without any evidence, but I'd say a minimum of 50% of the people who are aware of Harbinger #1's existence heard about this sale in some way.

And those that didn't, again, are the ones who are far less likely to slab these potential 9.8s (if they even exist.)

At any rate (I know I'm rambling), I don't think it requires that many copies of this book in 9.8 to drop it to the $500-$800 range. How many total 9.8s are out there now? What percent of the total Harbinger 1 9.8 market do those new 4-5 9.8s represent? They were enough to halve the market price.

BUT....$2550 was NOT the "market price" of this book....that was a fluke. "Market price" is what an item typically sells for. Obviously, it's hard to gauge a market price for an item that rarely sells, but the record high price for any item is not, by definition, its market price.

How much would the price drop if another 4-5 copies show up in the next 6 months?

Show up on the market, or on the census....?

We are a niche market... How many people out there are willing to spend a $1,000 on a comic book?

Quite a few, apparently. Certainly more than 10,000 people, or the market wouldn't support the silly prices we see across the board.

Of those, how many would spend that same $1,000 on a modern comic book?

Obviously a much smaller population of people, no more than 100-200 people.

Of those, how many would be willing to drop a grand on a Valiant comic?

About 5-10 people, as the market has revealed (including you, by the way. )

How many guys would buy multiple Harby 1s for $1,000?

Probably 0, at this time.

I'm just saying that the market is very small & will be supplied by just a handful of copies before the price drops under a $1,000.

I know you were specifically responding to me, but I'm not the one who was arguing this. You know I'm very much a market guy. If more 9.8s show up for SALE, as well as on the census, then yes, the PRICE for 9.8s will drop dramatically (as I noted in my previous post.)

If another 4-5 copies were to show up on the census in the next 6 months (a pretty bold prediction), and 2-3 more copies showed up on eBay, then I think there would be no problem for them to sink to $600-$800.

I'm simpy arguing the population theories.

This book is very tough in 9.8. There's no doubt about that. It deserves a premium over other Valiant 9.8s (other than Solar 10 = different debate). However, the book (rarity-wise ) is not TMNT 1 or Albedo 2. Again, just my opinions. The market will show us who was correct.

Well.......I dunno about that, either. The rarity of Albedo #2 and TMNT #1 is probably what PRESERVED them from damage. They were both, like Harby #1, books that were worth A LOT of money relatively shortly after they were made, and because they were 3,000 and 2,000, when the B&W market crashed, they didn't. I doubt seriously a person could ever find a TMNT #1 for $5 much after mid-1984 when the book was released, and Albedo #2 is in the same boat (as evidenced by me not finding a copy for well over 15 years for ANY price, much less "cheap.")

Harby #1 was easily a $5 book in 1997, 1998, 1999....or less.

Now, granted, collecting habits weren't as advanced in 1984-1985 as they were by 1991 (when Harby #1 was produced), so there are fewer high grade copies of those two books....but that's also a reflection of their much smaller initial pool of available copies. It's hard to make an apples to apples comparison with these books on any level.

[Sensationalcomics]

I have been watching these boards for a few years now, and this is the first time I have thought of jumping into the fray.

A little history of myself

The first comic I (my Father for me) ever bought off the newstand was Amazing Spider-man #90 (what a book to be your first!!). Side note, my father cursed buying me that book till the day he died. Before I was out of high school, I had completed the full Amazing Spider-man run, short of issue #2 which I could never find and by that time I wanted to add it in a higher grade.

The Black & White craze started while I was still in high school and it got to the point that if I wanted to get every new #1 issue each week it would have cost me up to $50 bucks a week just to keep up.

I still remember the day I heard about TNMT #1, a dealer was running around, at the Miami Con, screaming that he just got one for $150 bucks. It was the first week the book came out, back then no one really new how many books were printed each month, but he was filpin out because the rumor was they had only printed 1500 copies of the book.

Now this is the first point that has been mentioned in this forum. TMNT didnt keep its value thru today because of its print run. There were many books released during that era that had smaller print runs. Shuriken #1 had only 1000 copies printed(used to be list in old overstreets), Redfox #4 was always listed as scarce in the old guides. TMNT #1 wasnt listed as scarce.

TMNT kept its value cause of all the marketing around those characters, not its print run.

After the black & whites, I left comics for awhile, but I was back in the late 80's early 90's. I saw everyone going crazy over the Deaths of Robin & Superman and the Valiant explosion. All I could do was think back to the black & whites that I was now pulling out of peoples quarter bins and think are these people crazy or what, $200 for a Harbinger #1 thats insane!!!

again I went away for for awhile, came back just as Batmans Hush storyline was finishing up.

I found out about CGC then, and about laughed my *SQUEE* off. people were having books sealed & graded?? I could understand graded sports cards you can see the front, flip it and theres the back, not like you missing anything. BUT, comics!!!! how stupid is that.

Im a comic fan, I read the books, enjoy the art. Still, I had to check it out, so I picked up a complete run of Hush in 9.8. Got the book, and laughed again. Out of 15 books, maybe 4 of them would have been 9.8's (by the outside of the book). Needless to I got rid of those, & to this day still only have 1 graded book in my collection a Rai 4 CGC 9.4 & unless there is somthin wrong with the inside of the book, I should have a higher grade.

Now I am and was always a very stricy grader, the only thing I only found usefull in the grade boos that they put out was the little chart for grading the color of the paper.

Still I did my research on CGC, checked out the few local stores that were left in south florida, got their views on CGC. read all the market reports in the new and older overstreets, kept an eye out on ebay auctions and read alot online.

My final conclusion was that CGC was a way for people to take advantage of "investors" that have no idea about comics. There grading is inconsistant at best & the holder is cheap junk. When a sport card is sealed the card is still put in a protective sleeve than sealed in a tight container. the card does not move at all if shakin. The comics is put in the holder with no protcection, it moves around if its shakin and I cant tell you how many holders I have seen with cracks in them. note, if a sportcard is put in a holder with no sleve, chances are that if you try to take the card out, it will split in half, I have seen that happen hunder of times.

now on to Valiant and Harbinger #1 (the reason for this rant, lol)

That Harbinger #1 in 9.8 went for that much is nuts

I think that Pre-Unity and later valiants are undervalued (morso on the later issuse), but $2500+ at this point in time is just to much.

Some of you have been saying its a hard book to get in 9.8. well 5% of the books submitted so far have been graded a 9.8 , at that rate if 1000 books are submmited down the road, you will have around 50 copies graded at 9.8. ASre there 50 people out there that will pay that much for the book, somehow I doubt it.

Now, for the most part, people have no idea that Valiant books are picking up any interest what so ever. I now live in an area that I have 5 decent comic shops within 10 miles of my house, of which two of them are just insanley stocked with back issues. One of them during the last free comic day had about 20 longcount boxes setup outside with 10 cent back issues, I pulled a

Magnus 0, Hard Corps 1 Gold, Deathmates Black, Blue, Yellow & 2 Epilogues all Golds out of what I saw, and a few runs of Solar in the later 50's and 20 or so odd Acclaim books, including a Shadowman Vol 3 #1 all for 10 cents each. The Magnus 0 is in perfect shape (not a flaw I can find) & the rest are mostly 9.2's or better. and to boot, the guy is going to let me go into his warehouse, where he says he has 30 long counts of just Valiants, and he is going to sell them to me a $30 a longcout box for what ever books I want. To him (and alot of people) Valiant is just trash to throw away. The other store I have to go thru is a comic collectors dream, he must have 200+ long counts stacked out on his floor and shelves, and he says he has prob 2000 long counts in his warehouse. I can get Valiants from him for Overstreet guide price, with some discounts if I but in good amounts. This store is amazing, I have found old EC horror books in his stacks, just sittin ontop of open boxes.

I'll tell you guys & gals where I live now after I pick this area clean just Like I did in South Florida lol

We are still a very very small part in the overall comic market, overlooked by the vast majority of people. There are many if's out there. If Valiant lanches good new lines of books, if the Harbinger movie gets made, if it does well. But, hey what do I care if it never goes anywhere, its not like I dumped a ton of money into it & I got to replace and build the collection I could never do when they were hot. The stories are great with fantastic art. If it never takes off, so what , but if it does then alot of us will be laughing all the way to the bank

Happy hunting

[Daniel Jackson]

Welcome to the board.

[Sensationalcomics]

Thanks

[superman-prime]

welcome to the fray

[robb77]

[yardstick]

Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 sales:

2008 - 4 sales

Aug-07-2008 $1,225 Cert# 0903349004
Jun-12-2008 $2,075 Cert# 0903349005
Jun-01-2008 $2,000 Cert# 0152418001
Mar-30-2008 $2,550 Cert# 0907275002

2007 - ZERO EBAY SALES

2006 - 1 SALE, Nov $767

2005 - 3 sales

Aug-25-2005 $650 Cert# 0126240001
Aug-10-2005 $725 Cert# 0129724005
Mar-06-2005 $750 Cert# 0129724005


Which, as I stated, was the point. It wasn't the "movie announcement" that generated this price, although that certainly helped...it was the simple fact that the book had not appeared on eBay in almost a year and a half, and that TWO people wanted the book very, very badly.

Let's look at 9.6, and see if that gives us further clues:

Aug-07-2008 $160 Cert# 0903349002
Jun-30-2008 $139 Cert# 0152499001
Jun-15-2008 $200 Cert# 0909909038
Jun-12-2008 $214 Cert# 0903349007
May-26-2008 $252
Apr-19-2008 $229
Apr-10-2008 $205 Cert# 0060164005
Mar-19-2008 $125 Cert# 0805107006
Feb-29-2008 $123

Nov-26-2007 $109 Cert# 0807928003
Oct-28-2007 $92
Jul-09-2007 $85 Cert# 0146076001
May-27-2007 $76
May-07-2007 $74 Cert# 0144817001
Apr-30-2007 $68 Cert# 0776329019
Apr-22-2007 $88 Cert# 0776329019
Apr-16-2007 $86 Cert# 0776329019
Apr-09-2007 $103 Cert# 0776329019
Mar-08-2007 $90 Cert# 0776329019
Mar-01-2007 $91 Cert# 0776329019

for starters. "rebuttal" because I wanted to make sure I was using the right word...

There is no bidding history available for any of these auctions except for the two most recent from Showcase New England and possibly the auctions going back to May of this year, as these auctions have been cleared from eBay's database.

so these could have been one person bids, right?

[Sensationalcomics]

The last E-Bay auction that ended on Aug 7 had 8 bidders on the book. So I would think the ones that went earlier had more than 1 bidder on each of the auctions, short of a buy it now.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Revisiting, because it's time.

We find ourselves 8 months out from the $2550 auction, which I imagine is far enough out to be approaching the "past the near future" mark, though that may depend on individual definition.

There are now 19 Universal and 1 Signature Series 9.8s, for a total of 20 unqualified 9.8s.

My opinion, we will see more CGC 9.8's out there than there are now in the near future.

How many more?

I predict no more than 6-8, tops. I think the reality will be 2-3.

When I wrote this, there were only 12 universals on the census. 5 showed up within 3 months of this original statement, and another 2 (the 2 world's bought) in the last 3.

So....6-8 looks like a relatively accurate prediction.

In my defense, I did not know, and could not therefore take into consideration, that CGC would place a big honkin' ad for Harby #1 in their May (?) advertisements, thus exposing the book to far more publicity than it otherwise would have had.

Will there be more? With Harby #1 in 9.8 still a tremendously profitable book, it looks like the possibility is yes, though submissions have obviously leveled off recently.

But the most important thing to note is that, even with a tremendous amount of publicity, the book's population in 9.8 didn't double, or triple, or more. That tells you that the book is genuinely rare in the grade.

As well, there's this:

To date, 298 copies have been graded by CGC.

Since that was written, there have now been 67 additional copies slabbed, for a total of 365 copies. Of those 67 copies, 8, or just about 12% of the total graded copies, have been 9.8. This does not count copies that have been pre-screened out, and thus not included in the census. Naturally, in the quest for the magic 9.8, the "new" census will be skewed heavily towards that number.

In that same time, we have seen a handful of Solar #10s achieve 9.8 (from 10 to 16) as well.

Oh, and no....it was never the "movie announcement" that was the overriding factor in the prices achieved for this book.

(For the record, I miss Jrdawg and Nutflush. I really liked their contributions to this site.)

[gavster]

With that signature series Harby #1 9.8, does anyone know if the census would have been adjusted if the comics was already graded on a blue label at 9.8, then re-submitted for signatures, thus getting a new yellow label with a new number or the same one. Does this question make sense?

[MoonChild]

With that signature series Harby #1 9.8, does anyone know if the census would have been adjusted if the comics was already graded on a blue label at 9.8, then re-submitted for signatures, thus getting a new yellow label with a new number or the same one. Does this question make sense?

You would have to have a CGC witness of the signatures being signed in order for them to be CGC signature series.

[gavster]

With that signature series Harby #1 9.8, does anyone know if the census would have been adjusted if the comics was already graded on a blue label at 9.8, then re-submitted for signatures, thus getting a new yellow label with a new number or the same one. Does this question make sense?

You would have to have a CGC witness of the signatures being signed in order for them to be CGC signature series.

I know that, what I'm asking is, the comic might have been a blue label to start with right, and the census would have counted that right. Well if it was opened, signed, witnessed and re-submitted, CGC would amend the census regarding the signature series column but would they also deduct 1 quantity from the universal column.

[gavster]

And then if you re-submitted it again for another signature with CGC witnessing it, would you get the same barcode number and would the census be updated again..........Hang on there's only one CGC 9.8 which has been signed twice on two seperate occasions, I think I just answered my own question.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

With that signature series Harby #1 9.8, does anyone know if the census would have been adjusted if the comics was already graded on a blue label at 9.8, then re-submitted for signatures, thus getting a new yellow label with a new number or the same one. Does this question make sense?

Unfortunately, the census IS NOT adjusted when "different categories" or "different grades" are given.

So, it's possible that that 9.8 SS was actually one of the 19 9.8s, which would reduce the number from 20. There's really no way to know short of asking the owner (if they even know) or CGC (and they're not going to give this info out, even if they keep it, which is doubtful.)

As well, the book that Jrdawg had that was 9.6, that he resubbed and it came back 9.4? It's listed twice on the census....one in 9.6, one in 9.4...same book.

Resubs, and their attendant skewing of population numbers, are a mainstay of slabbed collectibles.

[*SQUEE*]

I am starting to regret my Harby #1 purchase for $2500. At the time it was such a hard book to get your hands on and I was trying to complete my Pre-unity run in 9.8, so I pulled the trigger. I now cringe a bit when I see that I could have saved at least a grand and maybe more if i was patient (hell I even have a 9.8 candidate waiting to be submitted).
I even had a 9.6 at the time .

Oh well thems the breaks and at least I learned something from it.

[MoonChild]

Look at it this way: You brought The Attention to Valiant more than any other recent valiant project! See it as an investment! CGC using this as a promo was great advertisement.

I am starting to regret my Harby #1 purchase for $2500. At the time it was such a hard book to get your hands on and I was trying to complete my Pre-unity run in 9.8, so I pulled the trigger. I now cringe a bit when I see that I could have saved at least a grand and maybe more if i was patient (hell I even have a 9.8 candidate waiting to be submitted).
I even had a 9.6 at the time .

Oh well thems the breaks and at least I learned something from it.

[gavster]

With that signature series Harby #1 9.8, does anyone know if the census would have been adjusted if the comics was already graded on a blue label at 9.8, then re-submitted for signatures, thus getting a new yellow label with a new number or the same one. Does this question make sense?

Unfortunately, the census IS NOT adjusted when "different categories" or "different grades" are given.

So, it's possible that that 9.8 SS was actually one of the 19 9.8s, which would reduce the number from 20. There's really no way to know short of asking the owner (if they even know) or CGC (and they're not going to give this info out, even if they keep it, which is doubtful.)

As well, the book that Jrdawg had that was 9.6, that he resubbed and it came back 9.4? It's listed twice on the census....one in 9.6, one in 9.4...same book.

Resubs, and their attendant skewing of population numbers, are a mainstay of slabbed collectibles.

Hmmmm, that's a bit slack on CGC's part I think. They must at least delete the bar code number of the original slab after re-submitting, otherwise collectors could use the same number in their registry set without that particular slab even existing. If they do delete the old number you would think it would be easy to amend the registry at the same time. Otherwise our statistical view of the census is a bit skewed.

[gavster]

I am starting to regret my Harby #1 purchase for $2500. At the time it was such a hard book to get your hands on and I was trying to complete my Pre-unity run in 9.8, so I pulled the trigger. I now cringe a bit when I see that I could have saved at least a grand and maybe more if i was patient (hell I even have a 9.8 candidate waiting to be submitted).
I even had a 9.6 at the time .

Oh well thems the breaks and at least I learned something from it.

I agree in part, we needed it for our collections and paid the price, we don't own crystal balls to see into the future so I'm okay with the price paid. As a side point it is still a high grade, rare, top notch investment if you can hold onto it.

[iggy101us]

Just found this thread again. Wow.

[depluto]

So how many 9.8s are there now? The price has come down, fo sho.