CGC Harbinger #1 $2550 what does it mean for Valiant?

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Let me just say this also, ZWH. Although my post did spur quite a passionate response from you, someone had to give you a hard time about just how bad your prediction was.

You're "trying" to sell a Harbinger #1 CGC 9.6 for $299.

Higher than any Harby #1 CGC 9.6 has ever sold for, or been offered for. Ever in history.

a grenade I was more than happy to fall on.
I seriously didn't read your entire response, I only skimmed it.

Like I said...the response wasn't for you. People like you don't take facts, figures, data and information seriously. You live in your basement dwelling world, where all that matters is that your mom does your laundry and has dinner ready by 6 PM.




The response...as always....was for everyone else.

Thanks for making me laugh, though. This has all brought a smile to my face.

It is very easy to bring a smile to the face of the simple.

In fact, I'd have to say you win. You beat me. You have more time to devote to this discussion. I could give a good accounting for myself if I put in the time and effort, but I won't.

No. You can't.

I can't.

You can't because you actually cannot, not because you choose not to.

not that important to me, and I have to leave.
Like I said, you win. You beat me. In every way, except on the scoreboard. I beat you on the scoreboard. My prediction beat yours. By a mile. Scoreboard, baby!

Ahhhhh...the picture becomes clearer....the source of your anger and hatred is becoming obvious...

You're jealous.

You're jealous because I can run circles of logic around your pincushion of a head. You're jealous because I know how to use logic, reason, data, and evidence to prove points, and THAT MAKES YOU MAD, because you cannot.

"I'm not jealous!"

Yeah. Right.

Non-jealous people don't crow about "my prediction beat yours." Non-jealous people don't talk about "Scoreboard", because they wouldn't think they had anything to prove. JEALOUS people DO think they have something to prove, and therefore use such language. I can almost HEAR you saying "neener neener NEEEEENNERR" as you typed this.

Oh...by the way....WHAT prediction...hmmm?

Please show me your prediction.

I scoured the boards pretty thoroughly yesterday, and could not find a "prediction" by you....only vague, nebulous responses to other people's predictions.

Things like "I wouldn't be surprised if it sold for more than you think" and stuff like that.

No actual concrete predictions.

So....where was your prediction?

Hey, if you want to write another four-hour dissertation regarding this post, please feel free to.

Gee, thanks for your permission! Four hours? Is THAT how long it takes you to read my posts...?

Poor thing, no WONDER you just skimmed it! I'll bet that was the hardest 2.5 hours of your life!

You'll find there's no way to refute the scoreboard.

1. Please provide this "prediction" that you made.

2. You'll find, in fact, that I did "refute" the "scoreboard." You were completely and thoroughly discredited, with the plethora of evidence provided above.

Okay, I'm just giving you a hard time. When the board-know-it-all

Hey, folks...remember when I said it was important for me to point out the times when I've been wrong, because there are going to be people who will make claims like "you think you know it ALL, don't you??" and "you never admit you're wrong about ANYTHING, do you?", and that it was important to point out, in fact, that I know next to NOTHING when it comes to the amount there is to KNOW?

That my knowledge is perhaps the head of a pin in the Pacific Ocean of knowledge that exists?

And that anyone CLAIMING that I'm a "know-it-all" is actually just saying that because they can't argue against my logic and reasoning, so they have to simply attack me PERSONALLY?

Ladies and Gentlemen...I give you: Exhibit A.

I am not the "board-know-it-all", StarBrand. In comics, I certainly know a lot, but I came by that knowledge dearly fought. In other fields, other members of this board wipe me off the map, a fact I quite clearly acknowledge.

But clearly I'm a "ZWH-knows-more-than-StarBrand."

And, really....that's all that matters, huh?

is wrong by this much

Again...you keep whining about how MUCH the prediction was off, as if that's such an incredible thing.

Please explain the relevance.

, he should expect a hard time. Like I said, it was all about falling on the grenade.

You sure like falling on grenades a lot....you sure those are grenades...? And are you sure you're falling, and not sitting....?

I may never get another chance to give you a hard time like this. I probably won't.
Have a good day, Zeph! I still like ya! Go Valiant, or is that VALIANT?

You're so neat! Seriously, SB, I'm glad you're sooooooooooooo arrogant.

It only made my utter dismantling of your "arguments" that much sweeter.

Thank you. Truly.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Let me just say this also, ZWH. Although my post did spur quite a passionate response from you, someone had to give you a hard time about just how bad your prediction was. It was a grenade I was more than happy to fall on.
I seriously didn't read your entire response, I only skimmed it. Thanks for making me laugh, though. This has all brought a smile to my face.
In fact, I'd have to say you win. You beat me. You have more time to devote to this discussion. I could give a good accounting for myself if I put in the time and effort, but I won't. I can't. It's not that important to me, and I have to leave.
Like I said, you win. You beat me. In every way, except on the scoreboard. I beat you on the scoreboard. My prediction beat yours. By a mile. Scoreboard, baby!
Hey, if you want to write another four-hour dissertation regarding this post, please feel free to. You'll find there's no way to refute the scoreboard.
Okay, I'm just giving you a hard time. When then board-know-it-all is wrong by this much, he should expect a hard time. Like I said, it was all about falling on the grenade. I may never get another chance to give you a hard time like this. I probably won't.
Have a good day, Zeph! I still like ya! Go Valiant, or is that VALIANT?

I usually get along pretty good with you, StarBrand, but in this case...



How about making a list of everyone who predicted the price correctly and a link to the posts where they did so?

I appreciate this, J, I really do...

But you and I both know it's futile.

People like this don't bother with trivialities like evidence, data, support for their claims...

Their opinions are all that matter.

Lucky is the day when their opinions happen to line up with the facts.

Because it's certainly not because they MEANT to.....

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

BrotherJ,
I wasn't really bragging about my prediction.

What prediction....?

It was probably mostly luck. One thing I'm well aware of, it only takes two bidders to drive a price on an online auction. I could've just as easily been wrong.
I realize there are a lot of guys on this board who know a lot more about Valiant than I do. Zeph is one of them.
I was just trying to give Zeph a hard time.

No, what BTE and Dr. Solar and Hobo gives me is "a hard time."

By definition, you cannot give someone "a hard time" if you don't have some sort of respect and cameraderie with them, which you most certainly do not have with me.

You were just being rude and disgraceful.

Ahhhhh....I analyze not for you, but for everyone else.

I think I succeeded. lol

If I said your mother was a $2 *SQUEE* working the sidewalk in Times Square, and that you father could be any one of 1,000 different men, would that be "giving you a hard time"....?

If I called your wife, or girlfriend, or boyfriend, a slut who fools around with neighborhood stray dogs, would that be "giving you a hard time"....?

No, my dear, sweet friend, that would be "making inflammatory remarks to get a reaction."

I doubt I'll ever see him make another prediction that ends up missing the mark like on this one, however, if I do, I reserve the right to give him a hard time about it again.

Clearly, you were dropped on the head multiple times as an infant.



"Gosh, a prediction about a FUTURE EVENT was wrong by half. Wow. Stop the presses. This one's BIG."

You would think I was the French Men's 4 x 100 relay team, the way you wildly overreact.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

ZWH how do you find the time to gather all of these facts?

This is training (as you yourself know, having been to law school.)

This is how cases are won and lost, by being able to not only gather data....reams and reams of it....but also being able to properly interpret it.

So, I consider it part of my education, and time very well spent.

Plus, my ego gets involved when someone has the utter audacity to claim that I didn't do the "proper research."



I am many, many, MANY things....but an incomplete researcher I am NOT.

If I can summon half the devotion to law school that you have for this board I will be law review without a problem.

It is not the information and location, but the EXERCISE that is important.

But I thank you for the compliment.

[nutflush76]

Wow.

[yardstick]

...One thing I'm well aware of, it only takes two bidders to drive a price on an online auction...

Hey ZWH, just out of curiosity, I was wondering how many bidders there were for each of the auctions you quoted in your post. Do you have that info handy?

Thanks in advance...

You're going to have to be a lot more specific, please. I quoted a ream of data, so I'm not sure to what, exactly, you refer.

Thanks!

You listed several item numbers of books/auctions during your um... "rebuttal", do you have the data on how many bidders there were on each of the items/auctions you cited?

[yardstick]

Wow.

want some popcorn nutflush?

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

...One thing I'm well aware of, it only takes two bidders to drive a price on an online auction...

Hey ZWH, just out of curiosity, I was wondering how many bidders there were for each of the auctions you quoted in your post. Do you have that info handy?

Thanks in advance...

You're going to have to be a lot more specific, please. I quoted a ream of data, so I'm not sure to what, exactly, you refer.

Thanks!

You listed several item numbers of books/auctions during your um... "rebuttal", do you have the data on how many bidders there were on each of the items/auctions you cited?

You just repeated the same question you asked earlier, using different words.

Once more....

You're going to have to be a lot more specific, please. Which auctions are you specifically referring to? What numbers? Quote the original statement, if necessary. The auctions that I quoted are mostly long gone from eBay's database, but unless and until you give me specific information, I can't say for sure.

And, perhaps if you simply state what it is you're after, I can be of more service.

And my um...."rebuttal", was actually a rebuttal, no quotes. And it was a damn fine one at that.

[siren3-4]

What I really think it meant for Valiant is advertising . . .

CGC has Harbinger #1 on the first page of Wizard promoting the value of CGC9.8 vs Ebay raw NM . . .

Pretty cool if you ask me . . .

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

What I really think it meant for Valiant is advertising . . .

CGC has Harbinger #1 on the first page of Wizard promoting the value of CGC9.8 vs Ebay raw NM . . .

Pretty cool if you ask me . . .

The funny thing....?

That ad appeared last month....

And yet, last week, SNE couldn't sell one for half that price.

[gavster]

I have to admit it smarts a little bit seeing a Harby #1 9.8 go for $1200, I could have waited and not bid $2550 but I could not have predicted that so many would come up for sale in such a short amount of time. My decision to bid so high was based purely on the fact (as stated elsewhere) that none had not come up for sale for over a year and a half, and would there be another?

What is not mentioned in ZWH rebuttal (because its not hard data) is that I was not the only one to buy a Harby #1 CGC 9.8 for $2500, I could be wrong (again) but I think two others sold privately within two weeks of my purchase. This makes no impact on the hard data as they were also "gotta have it" kind of people and private sales. It only makes me feel better that I wasn't the only one to pay a high price for the slab.

Its still a "Blue chip" grade slab and compliments my collection, and I'm going to hold onto it for as long as I can.

[worldsbestcomics]

Three 9.8 Harbinger 1s sold for $2500 or more. I think that the article regarding Gavin's purchase is what pushed some copies to market, I know that is what did it for me. I also think that the spike in price for 9.8s and 9.6s has motivated many Harby 1 owners to submit their books for grading. I have submitted my last four 9.6 books and my remaining raw 9.8 book. The recent new books hitting the market has pushed down prices and they will continue to drop if successful submissions continue and no new collectors come to Valiant. However, I do not believe that there are a lot more raw 9.8 books out there. I thought that 3-4 more might show up. Maybe it will be a few more than that. But, I also believe that the relaunch of Valiant and a monthly Harbinger title and the eventual release of a Harbinger movie will create new Harbinger collectors and we will see an increase in Harby 1 prices as a result. We will see more $2000+ Harbinger 1 sales and the price could top $3000 within two years.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

The two ADDITIONAL sales were predicated ENTIRELY on the first sale.

Had the first sale not happened, or had entirely different results, the results of the second and third sales would have been either non-existant (as the identity of the second high bidder would have been unrevealed) or, at the very least, entirely different.

That's why they cannot be entirely figured into sales data.

Yes, we're all each of us aware that not only was that price met not once, not twice, but three times, and that therefore gives that value a much, much more substantial legitimacy. I'm not disputing that.

What I'm saying is that, again, it's a horse/cart argument.

Without the first auction, the second and third sales may not have existed.

Without the desperation of TWO bidders IN that first sale, the price achieved would not have existed. Therefore, that FIRST auction result WAS A FLUKE (which really makes StarBrand's crowing about how "off" my prediction was...while not even bothering to make a prediction of his own...look really stupid. NOBODY can predict a FLUKE.)

And, as has borne out, that pool of people willing to pay $2500 was met. Demand dropped, and therefore price dropped. Substantially.

When there's only a pool of 2-4 people willing to pay a certain price for an item, once that demand is met, the only thing sustaining the value is the OPINIONS of the next buyers. Clearly, the next buyers did not agree that the book was worth $2500.

This is not Spiderman #300, which has a VASTLY larger pool of people willing to pay big money for this book in 9.8. There have been FOUR sales of Harbinger #1 in 9.8 in ALL of 2008. There were ZERO in 2007. Trying to make accurate predictions from that is a very difficult thing to do.

I can guarantee you, those next two $2000 sales on eBay would never have been that high if that first auction hadn't been. And, now that we've got an established downward trend, what will the next Harby #1 9.8 sell for?

If it is listed right now, probably not more than $1000, as those who imagined they could profit at a higher margin are driven away, and those who really want it are the only ones left to bid.

If, however, one is not listed for a substantial amount of time....say, a year or more....then the counters are reset, and anything goes.

As well, my prediction concernin what would happen AFTER the fact has been proven entirely accurate. I predicted, on March 31, the following:

My opinion, we will see more CGC 9.8's out there than there are now in the near future.

How many more?

I predict no more than 6-8, tops. I think the reality will be 2-3.

It is now nearly 5 months after that prediction. At the time of that prediction, the 9.8 count stood at 13. It now stands at 17.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

I have to admit it smarts a little bit seeing a Harby #1 9.8 go for $1200, I could have waited and not bid $2550 but I could not have predicted that so many would come up for sale in such a short amount of time. My decision to bid so high was based purely on the fact (as stated elsewhere) that none had not come up for sale for over a year and a half, and would there be another?

What is not mentioned in ZWH rebuttal (because its not hard data) is that I was not the only one to buy a Harby #1 CGC 9.8 for $2500, I could be wrong (again) but I think two others sold privately within two weeks of my purchase. This makes no impact on the hard data as they were also "gotta have it" kind of people and private sales. It only makes me feel better that I wasn't the only one to pay a high price for the slab.

Its still a "Blue chip" grade slab and compliments my collection, and I'm going to hold onto it for as long as I can.

You should feel nothing sting-y with your actions. You did exactly what you needed to do, and got what you wanted out of it. There's nothing wrong with that.

If you had asked my advice, I would have said what I eventually did say:

You had two choices. You could pounce on the one that was available in front of you now, or you could wait who knows how long for another copy at a cheaper price. You can take a chance that it will sell for cheaper down the road, but you also take the chance that it isn't offered for sale at all.

Predicting the past is easy. No one could have known at the time you bid that A. it would have sold for that much, and B. that that would end up driving others out of the woodwork.

With this recent sale, it is very, very possible that this is the last 9.8 sale we will see for a longgggg time....maybe another year or two.

And who knows what may have changed by that point?

You did what you had to do, you won the book, and you should feel very proud. It was breathtaking to watch, I'll tell you that much.

[gavster]

I have to admit it smarts a little bit seeing a Harby #1 9.8 go for $1200, I could have waited and not bid $2550 but I could not have predicted that so many would come up for sale in such a short amount of time. My decision to bid so high was based purely on the fact (as stated elsewhere) that none had not come up for sale for over a year and a half, and would there be another?

What is not mentioned in ZWH rebuttal (because its not hard data) is that I was not the only one to buy a Harby #1 CGC 9.8 for $2500, I could be wrong (again) but I think two others sold privately within two weeks of my purchase. This makes no impact on the hard data as they were also "gotta have it" kind of people and private sales. It only makes me feel better that I wasn't the only one to pay a high price for the slab.

Its still a "Blue chip" grade slab and compliments my collection, and I'm going to hold onto it for as long as I can.

You should feel nothing sting-y with your actions. You did exactly what you needed to do, and got what you wanted out of it. There's nothing wrong with that.

If you had asked my advice, I would have said what I eventually did say:

You had two choices. You could pounce on the one that was available in front of you now, or you could wait who knows how long for another copy at a cheaper price. You can take a chance that it will sell for cheaper down the road, but you also take the chance that it isn't offered for sale at all.

Predicting the past is easy. No one could have known at the time you bid that A. it would have sold for that much, and B. that that would end up driving others out of the woodwork.

With this recent sale, it is very, very possible that this is the last 9.8 sale we will see for a longgggg time....maybe another year or two.

And who knows what may have changed by that point?

You did what you had to do, you won the book, and you should feel very proud. It was breathtaking to watch, I'll tell you that much.

[Zero]

I thought that 3-4 more might show up. Maybe it will be a few more than that.

This is the 1 comment you make that I disagree with. I believe there are many more 9.8s out there.

You might be surprised to find out how many patrolling this joint have high grade copies of books. Many people just don't believe in CGC. Personally, I think their encapsulation process leaves much to be desired. I have had more than a few books become damaged by the slab itself. I am not talking about shaken slab either. I'm talking about normal handling. I have a couple Harby 25s & a couple A&A 8s that were absolutely destroyed by the slab. They, apparently, do not like the thicker Valiant books.

At any rate, if you don't trust slabs & you have no plans to sell, then why would you spend money on grading? I think there are more people in this category than you know. Ultimately, there are no truly rare Valiant books in 9.8. You might have an argument for some Acclaim books, but not Valiant. Just my opinions though...

[JustCallMeAric]

I thought that 3-4 more might show up. Maybe it will be a few more than that.

This is the 1 comment you make that I disagree with. I believe there are many more 9.8s out there. quote]

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

I thought that 3-4 more might show up. Maybe it will be a few more than that.

This is the 1 comment you make that I disagree with. I believe there are many more 9.8s out there.

You might be surprised to find out how many patrolling this joint have high grade copies of books. Many people just don't believe in CGC. Personally, I think their encapsulation process leaves much to be desired. I have had more than a few books become damaged by the slab itself. I am not talking about shaken slab either. I'm talking about normal handling. I have a couple Harby 25s & a couple A&A 8s that were absolutely destroyed by the slab. They, apparently, do not like the thicker Valiant books.

At any rate, if you don't trust slabs & you have no plans to sell, then why would you spend money on grading? I think there are more people in this category than you know. Ultimately, there are no truly rare Valiant books in 9.8. You might have an argument for some Acclaim books, but not Valiant. Just my opinions though...

Welllll....

A lot of this depends on what we define as "rare", and a whollllle lot of Einsteinian theory.....

For example...compared to the other 6 Pre-Unity first issues (Magnus, Solar, X-O, Rai, Shadowman 1s, A&A 0), Harbinger #1 is quite rare in 9.8, and, following your reasoning (that there are people with high grade copies that haven't slabbed them), that ratio is not likely to change much.

Absolutely, compared to other books of the 1990's, Harbinger #1 is also pretty rare.

Compared to Acclaims, Harbinger #1 might be as common as fleas on strays.

As for your assessment of CGC slabs...I couldn't agree more. It's been heartbreaking seeing books that survived years, sometimes decades, in 9.4, 9.6, 9.8, 9.9 shape be destroyed after being in a slab for two weeks.

It's pathetic.

I would never buy a 9.8 or higher slab unless I wanted to flip it. I know what 9.8s look like.

That's one of the reasons why I've hesitated slabbing my TMNT #1. It's survived nearly 25 years in stunning, gorgeous condition.....and it would break my heart to have a slab ruin it, regardless of their "compensation."

Some things aren't replaceable.

[yardstick]

...One thing I'm well aware of, it only takes two bidders to drive a price on an online auction...

Hey ZWH, just out of curiosity, I was wondering how many bidders there were for each of the auctions you quoted in your post. Do you have that info handy?

Thanks in advance...

You're going to have to be a lot more specific, please. I quoted a ream of data, so I'm not sure to what, exactly, you refer.

Thanks!

You listed several item numbers of books/auctions during your um... "rebuttal", do you have the data on how many bidders there were on each of the items/auctions you cited?

You just repeated the same question you asked earlier, using different words.

Once more....

You're going to have to be a lot more specific, please. Which auctions are you specifically referring to? What numbers? Quote the original statement, if necessary. The auctions that I quoted are mostly long gone from eBay's database, but unless and until you give me specific information, I can't say for sure.

And, perhaps if you simply state what it is you're after, I can be of more service.

And my um...."rebuttal", was actually a rebuttal, no quotes. And it was a damn fine one at that.

Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 sales:

2008 - 4 sales

Aug-07-2008 $1,225 Cert# 0903349004
Jun-12-2008 $2,075 Cert# 0903349005
Jun-01-2008 $2,000 Cert# 0152418001
Mar-30-2008 $2,550 Cert# 0907275002

2007 - ZERO EBAY SALES

2006 - 1 SALE, Nov $767

2005 - 3 sales

Aug-25-2005 $650 Cert# 0126240001
Aug-10-2005 $725 Cert# 0129724005
Mar-06-2005 $750 Cert# 0129724005


Which, as I stated, was the point. It wasn't the "movie announcement" that generated this price, although that certainly helped...it was the simple fact that the book had not appeared on eBay in almost a year and a half, and that TWO people wanted the book very, very badly.

Let's look at 9.6, and see if that gives us further clues:

Aug-07-2008 $160 Cert# 0903349002
Jun-30-2008 $139 Cert# 0152499001
Jun-15-2008 $200 Cert# 0909909038
Jun-12-2008 $214 Cert# 0903349007
May-26-2008 $252
Apr-19-2008 $229
Apr-10-2008 $205 Cert# 0060164005
Mar-19-2008 $125 Cert# 0805107006
Feb-29-2008 $123

Nov-26-2007 $109 Cert# 0807928003
Oct-28-2007 $92
Jul-09-2007 $85 Cert# 0146076001
May-27-2007 $76
May-07-2007 $74 Cert# 0144817001
Apr-30-2007 $68 Cert# 0776329019
Apr-22-2007 $88 Cert# 0776329019
Apr-16-2007 $86 Cert# 0776329019
Apr-09-2007 $103 Cert# 0776329019
Mar-08-2007 $90 Cert# 0776329019
Mar-01-2007 $91 Cert# 0776329019

for starters. "rebuttal" because I wanted to make sure I was using the right word...

[Zero]

Welllll....

A lot of this depends on what we define as "rare", and a whollllle lot of Einsteinian theory.....

For example...compared to the other 6 Pre-Unity first issues (Magnus, Solar, X-O, Rai, Shadowman 1s, A&A 0), Harbinger #1 is quite rare in 9.8, and, following your reasoning (that there are people with high grade copies that haven't slabbed them), that ratio is not likely to change much.

Absolutely, compared to other books of the 1990's, Harbinger #1 is also pretty rare.

I agree that Harbinger 1 in 9.8 is harder than the other pre-Unity books. I agree that it should sell at a premium over other pre-Unity books. I just don't want hype to get in the way of collectors' logic. The book hit some crazy prizes that it could not sustain. My only argument is that the book, at this time, is still overvalued at $1,000-$1,200.

I just get a little shocked when I see someone type that there will likely only be 2-3 new examples of this book in 9.8. How many of the 40,000+ Harby 1s have ever been submitted? Granted, many are not worth submitting, but I think there are likely to be many more examples out there. Some will be bought raw on E-bay & then submitted for a 9.8 (like imagesowner's recent copy). Others will be slabbed by dealers because of the recent publicity those high sales have brought. I've seen this too often with Valiant slabs. Magnus 13, Magnus 14, & Harbinger 6 come to mind. They were tough for awhile & many guys were wanting them for their registry sets. Judging by recent prices there must be more 9.8s around. A few high austions for a book will pull more examples out if they are around. Recent auctions show that there are more 9.8 examples of Harbinger 1 to be had. That's all I'm saying. The book is FAAARRRR from worthless. I'd just hate to see someone buy into some rarity hype & drop $1,500+ for the book only to find out it's really only a $500-$800 book once the true measure of the 9.8 rarity of the book is taken. That's how we lose collectors.

That's one of the reasons why I've hesitated slabbing my TMNT #1. It's survived nearly 25 years in stunning, gorgeous condition.....and it would break my heart to have a slab ruin it, regardless of their "compensation."

Some things aren't replaceable.

I think you've made a wise decision. 99% of my slabs were purchased already slabbed. It's made me not want to submit my raw copies. If I had a nice copy of TMNT #1 I would not have it graded either. You know what it is. Grading will do nothing for you unless you sell.

[worldsbestcomics]

Harbinger 1 hasn't been a $500-800 book in 9.8 for a looong time and it will never be a $500-$800 book again as long as Valiant remains in business IMO. The bottom of the Valiant market has passed folks. If these books were selling for these prices when Valiant was a dead universe, the the relaunch of the Valiant universe and the release of new Harbinger books and a movie will only create more new Valiant fans and new demand.

I can understand the "sticker shock" for post-2001Valiant fans of seeing books sell for big money when you could find them in quarter bins a couple years ago. But, those who were around in 1992 already know that if there is demand for the books, the supply is scarce enough to drive prices up fairly quickly.

[Zero]

Harbinger 1 hasn't been a $500-800 book in 9.8 for a looong time and it will never be a $500-$800 book again as long as Valiant remains in business IMO. The bottom of the Valiant market has passed folks. If these books were selling for these prices when Valiant was a dead universe, the the relaunch of the Valiant universe and the release of new Harbinger books and a movie will only create more new Valiant fans and new demand.

I can understand the "sticker shock" for post-2001Valiant fans of seeing books sell for big money when you could find them in quarter bins a couple years ago. But, those who were around in 1992 already know that if there is demand for the books, the supply is scarce enough to drive prices up fairly quickly.

Maybe, but I think you are going to be proven wrong. $500.00 for most modern books is crazy money. Trust me when I say sticker shock is not an issue for me. Paying more for something when I can wait & get it cheaper is my issue.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 sales:

2008 - 4 sales

Aug-07-2008 $1,225 Cert# 0903349004
Jun-12-2008 $2,075 Cert# 0903349005
Jun-01-2008 $2,000 Cert# 0152418001
Mar-30-2008 $2,550 Cert# 0907275002

2007 - ZERO EBAY SALES

2006 - 1 SALE, Nov $767

2005 - 3 sales

Aug-25-2005 $650 Cert# 0126240001
Aug-10-2005 $725 Cert# 0129724005
Mar-06-2005 $750 Cert# 0129724005


Which, as I stated, was the point. It wasn't the "movie announcement" that generated this price, although that certainly helped...it was the simple fact that the book had not appeared on eBay in almost a year and a half, and that TWO people wanted the book very, very badly.

Let's look at 9.6, and see if that gives us further clues:

Aug-07-2008 $160 Cert# 0903349002
Jun-30-2008 $139 Cert# 0152499001
Jun-15-2008 $200 Cert# 0909909038
Jun-12-2008 $214 Cert# 0903349007
May-26-2008 $252
Apr-19-2008 $229
Apr-10-2008 $205 Cert# 0060164005
Mar-19-2008 $125 Cert# 0805107006
Feb-29-2008 $123

Nov-26-2007 $109 Cert# 0807928003
Oct-28-2007 $92
Jul-09-2007 $85 Cert# 0146076001
May-27-2007 $76
May-07-2007 $74 Cert# 0144817001
Apr-30-2007 $68 Cert# 0776329019
Apr-22-2007 $88 Cert# 0776329019
Apr-16-2007 $86 Cert# 0776329019
Apr-09-2007 $103 Cert# 0776329019
Mar-08-2007 $90 Cert# 0776329019
Mar-01-2007 $91 Cert# 0776329019

for starters. "rebuttal" because I wanted to make sure I was using the right word...

There is no bidding history available for any of these auctions except for the two most recent from Showcase New England and possibly the auctions going back to May of this year, as these auctions have been cleared from eBay's database.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Welllll....

A lot of this depends on what we define as "rare", and a whollllle lot of Einsteinian theory.....

For example...compared to the other 6 Pre-Unity first issues (Magnus, Solar, X-O, Rai, Shadowman 1s, A&A 0), Harbinger #1 is quite rare in 9.8, and, following your reasoning (that there are people with high grade copies that haven't slabbed them), that ratio is not likely to change much.

Absolutely, compared to other books of the 1990's, Harbinger #1 is also pretty rare.

I agree that Harbinger 1 in 9.8 is harder than the other pre-Unity books. I agree that it should sell at a premium over other pre-Unity books. I just don't want hype to get in the way of collectors' logic. The book hit some crazy prizes that it could not sustain. My only argument is that the book, at this time, is still overvalued at $1,000-$1,200.

I just get a little shocked when I see someone type that there will likely only be 2-3 new examples of this book in 9.8. How many of the 40,000+ Harby 1s have ever been submitted? Granted, many are not worth submitting, but I think there are likely to be many more examples out there. Some will be bought raw on E-bay & then submitted for a 9.8 (like imagesowner's recent copy).

Not to be a doubting Thomas, but do we actually have any PROOF that this really happened.....?

I don't accept feedback as proof.

Others will be slabbed by dealers because of the recent publicity those high sales have brought. I've seen this too often with Valiant slabs. Magnus 13, Magnus 14, & Harbinger 6 come to mind. They were tough for awhile & many guys were wanting them for their registry sets. Judging by recent prices there must be more 9.8s around. A few high austions for a book will pull more examples out if they are around. Recent auctions show that there are more 9.8 examples of Harbinger 1 to be had. That's all I'm saying. The book is FAAARRRR from worthless. I'd just hate to see someone buy into some rarity hype & drop $1,500+ for the book only to find out it's really only a $500-$800 book once the true measure of the 9.8 rarity of the book is taken. That's how we lose collectors.

Absolutely, I agree with you 100%.

And I think you're correct about a lot of books.

Back in the early 2000's (what a weird thing to type), there were a LOT of books that sold for crazy amounts because there was just no way to accurately figure out what everything was worth.

A LOT of people made a LOT of money off of books that later turned out to be quite common. X-Men #140 9.8 selling for $500+ in 2001? That's now a $150-$200 book. CEAR 9.8 for $1500? That's a $300-$400 book now. That's one of the reasons why I have bought very, very few slabs...this is just history repeating itself.

I myself fell for this little trap a few years ago when I bought a few A&A #0s, based entirely on the census which was very low....AT THE TIME. Luckily, that was only a "buy for $30, sell for $10" mistake.

HOWEVER....

$2550 isn't chump change. Harbinger #1, if it existed in large numbers, should have come out of the woodwork. It set the record (recently broken) for a 1990's comic, slabbed or not.

But it's been almost 5 months, and only 4-5 more have shown up. Where are the rest of the 9.8s?



If they were out there, and were GOING to be slabbed, they would have been. What more incentive does anyone need? $2550, $2000, even $1225 is far, far, far more....by a factor of TEN or more....than almost ANY raw copy has ever sold for, ever.

Obviously, the incentive exists.

It's like Amazing Spiderman #1....there have been 1022 Universal copies graded in the last 8+ years. Is it likely that that number will double in the next 8 years? Not at all. There are 24 copies in 9.0 and above (including that ridiculous freak 9.8)....what are the odds that there are many more in those grades (comparable to Harby #1 9.8)....?

The incentive to grade is there. If you're going to slab and sell, there's no reason not to.

And the fact remains that if those who have potential 9.8s never slab them, then they remain entirely out of the equation....they essentially don't exist in any consideration UNTIL and IF they are ever slabbed. You cannot account for what does not exist, after all. We can talk about potential 9.8s out there, but until they become ACTUAL 9.8s, the discussion means little.

That's one of the reasons why I've hesitated slabbing my TMNT #1. It's survived nearly 25 years in stunning, gorgeous condition.....and it would break my heart to have a slab ruin it, regardless of their "compensation."

Some things aren't replaceable.

I think you've made a wise decision. 99% of my slabs were purchased already slabbed. It's made me not want to submit my raw copies. If I had a nice copy of TMNT #1 I would not have it graded either. You know what it is. Grading will do nothing for you unless you sell.

Part of me WANTS to slab it, just to see what number it gets.....but part of me is just terrified that they'll ruin it in some way. And that part for outweighs any other considerations at this time.

So until and unless I want to sell, I think it will remain unslabbed. Amazing Spiderman #300, sure. Albedo #2 9.0. no problem. Primer #2 9.8, I was selling (and I think that book will do ok in that slab.)

But the Turtles #1? Irreplaceable.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Harbinger 1 hasn't been a $500-800 book in 9.8 for a looong time and it will never be a $500-$800 book again as long as Valiant remains in business IMO.

I agree with your second assertion, but maybe not your first. It sold in 2006 and 2005 4 times for between $650-$767.

Is that a long time? I dunno.

The bottom of the Valiant market has passed folks. If these books were selling for these prices when Valiant was a dead universe, the the relaunch of the Valiant universe and the release of new Harbinger books and a movie will only create more new Valiant fans and new demand.

But.....the Valiant Universe hasn't been relaunched....yet.

I agree, however, we'll probably never see the "$5-$10 for NM copies of Harby #1 raw on eBay" again....

I can understand the "sticker shock" for post-2001Valiant fans of seeing books sell for big money when you could find them in quarter bins a couple years ago. But, those who were around in 1992 already know that if there is demand for the books, the supply is scarce enough to drive prices up fairly quickly.

I certainly hope so....but the situation is so much different than it was in 1992. Lots of different factors involved.

It'd be interesting to see an analysis of the different factors.