May 2014 Sales Discussion

[leonmallett]

if we start next month's sales discussion now we could probably hit 33 pages by the time they are actually released.

Great plan!

[ilzuccone]

5

[iwantvaliant]

This thread is amazing!

Completely devoid of accurate facts but amazing nonetheless

This quote is amazing.

[bygranddesign]

Just a bit of warning for all the people who like to jump out of windows .. and are "harbingers of doom"

There is likely going to be a big drop in overall sales this month compared to April

No #1 issue
and no Rai

So please don't panic ... the world isn't ending ... A drop off should be expected.

I'll be interested to see how well the individual issues do compared to last month.

It was an important issue of Harbinger ... so hopefully we see a nice increase in sales for that comic.

[Phoenix8008]

Just a bit of warning for all the people who like to jump out of windows .. and are "harbingers of doom"

There is likely going to be a big drop in overall sales this month compared to April

No #1 issue
and no Rai

So please don't panic ... the world isn't ending ... A drop off should be expected.

I'll be interested to see how well the individual issues do compared to last month.

It was an important issue of Harbinger ... so hopefully we see a nice increase in sales for that comic.

So you're admitting that it's all coming apart at the seams and going down in flames, huh? Just a little 'nudge' to start the frenzy, eh? Nice touch. Don't parse words with us, we know the real score and it's obvious that we're all LOSING!

[Aram]

Why would people ever think there is only 1 investor or that everything hinges on just 1 person?

Silly people. Valiant is not PGX you know?

[grendeljd]

Loving this thread this month! Best sales discussion thread ever - I almost don't even want to see any actual figures show up at all, it will ruin all the fun!

[BugsySig]

Just a bit of warning for all the people who like to jump out of windows .. and are "harbingers of doom"

There is likely going to be a big drop in overall sales this month compared to April

No #1 issue
and no Rai

So please don't panic ... the world isn't ending ... A drop off should be expected.

I'll be interested to see how well the individual issues do compared to last month.

It was an important issue of Harbinger ... so hopefully we see a nice increase in sales for that comic.

True, but there was XO #25 and new arcs for Archer & Armstrong and Bloodshot & HARD Corps in addition to the "Death of a Renegade."

Of course there was also two less books overall because EW ended and Rai did not ship an issue in May.

[BugsySig]

Going to put this here because I don't want to start a separate thread and want to turn the discussion to VALIANT: http://www.comicbookresources.com/?page ... e&id=53380

Apparently of the 300k preordered issues of Rocket Raccoon #1, 100k of them are from one source: a geek collectibles subscription service called Loot Crate.

For a monthly fee, Loot Crate ships out a random box of collectibles to over 110k subscribers. This is the first hard copy comic being included in a monthly shipment and will allow Marvel and Rocket Raccoon to reach tens of thousands of people who might never have otherwise held this book in their hands. Previously they included a code for a free digital copy of Boom's Bravest Warriors.

Is this something VALIANT could be a part of? Seems like an amazing opportunity to grow awareness of a product. Imagine 100k people getting to read XO #0 or Bloodshot #25! Not to mention the crazy sales boost from such a purchase. And if the company's subscribers like it, they could make it a regular purchase several times a year.

Here is the Loot Crate website for anyone who's interested: https://www.lootcrate.com

[ilzuccone]

Going to put this here because I don't want to start a separate thread and want to turn the discussion to VALIANT: http://www.comicbookresources.com/?page ... e&id=53380

Apparently of the 300k preordered issues of Rocket Raccoon #1, 100k of them are from one source: a geek collectibles subscription service called Loot Crate.

For a monthly fee, Loot Crate ships out a random box of collectibles to over 110k subscribers. This is the first hard copy comic being included in a monthly shipment and will allow Marvel and Rocket Raccoon to reach tens of thousands of people who might never have otherwise held this book in their hands. Previously they included a code for a free digital copy of Boom's Bravest Warriors.

Is this something VALIANT could be a part of? Seems like an amazing opportunity to grow awareness of a product. Imagine 100k people getting to read XO #0 or Bloodshot #25! Not to mention the crazy sales boost from such a purchase. And if the company's subscribers like it, they could make it a regular purchase several times a year.

Here is the Loot Crate website for anyone who's interested: https://www.lootcrate.com

Something like this works well for marvel. big brand recognition. Valiant could probably find a more pointed way to use their marketing money. I've done a couple of these box o stuff services. it always ends up being a lot o stuff that ends up in the trash.

[drmirage]

Fortune favors the BOLD

[kjjohanson]

Going to put this here because I don't want to start a separate thread and want to turn the discussion to VALIANT: http://www.comicbookresources.com/?page ... e&id=53380

Apparently of the 300k preordered issues of Rocket Raccoon #1, 100k of them are from one source: a geek collectibles subscription service called Loot Crate.

For a monthly fee, Loot Crate ships out a random box of collectibles to over 110k subscribers. This is the first hard copy comic being included in a monthly shipment and will allow Marvel and Rocket Raccoon to reach tens of thousands of people who might never have otherwise held this book in their hands. Previously they included a code for a free digital copy of Boom's Bravest Warriors.

Is this something VALIANT could be a part of? Seems like an amazing opportunity to grow awareness of a product. Imagine 100k people getting to read XO #0 or Bloodshot #25! Not to mention the crazy sales boost from such a purchase. And if the company's subscribers like it, they could make it a regular purchase several times a year.

Here is the Loot Crate website for anyone who's interested: https://www.lootcrate.com

If they do digital with this, it might be a good idea for Valiant to include one of their Volume Ones, assuming there is no other cost to them.

[BugsySig]

Going to put this here because I don't want to start a separate thread and want to turn the discussion to VALIANT: http://www.comicbookresources.com/?page ... e&id=53380

Apparently of the 300k preordered issues of Rocket Raccoon #1, 100k of them are from one source: a geek collectibles subscription service called Loot Crate.

For a monthly fee, Loot Crate ships out a random box of collectibles to over 110k subscribers. This is the first hard copy comic being included in a monthly shipment and will allow Marvel and Rocket Raccoon to reach tens of thousands of people who might never have otherwise held this book in their hands. Previously they included a code for a free digital copy of Boom's Bravest Warriors.

Is this something VALIANT could be a part of? Seems like an amazing opportunity to grow awareness of a product. Imagine 100k people getting to read XO #0 or Bloodshot #25! Not to mention the crazy sales boost from such a purchase. And if the company's subscribers like it, they could make it a regular purchase several times a year.

Here is the Loot Crate website for anyone who's interested: https://www.lootcrate.com

Something like this works well for marvel. big brand recognition. Valiant could probably find a more pointed way to use their marketing money. I've done a couple of these box o stuff services. it always ends up being a lot o stuff that ends up in the trash.

As far as I can tell, Marvel and others do not pay anything. The company purchases the products the same way any retailer would. So no cost to VEI.

I agree that digital would probably work better for VEI, but if someone wants to order 100k copies I don't think they'd stop them.

And while most of the stuff might be crap, I'd at least read a free comic before I tossed it.

[brucehartshorn]

http://www.comichron.com/monthlycomicss ... 14-04.html

April 2014 Valiant sales info
RANK TITLE ISSUE SALES
73 Rai #1 29,137
194 Unity #6 9,351
205 XO #24 8,595
211 Harbinger #22 8,213
216 A&A #19 7,969
219 Q&W #9 7,896

VEI 4/12 to 4/14 = 24 months
VH2 2/97 - end 10/98 = 21 months

VEI is absolutely not making money if they average less than 10,000 copies and 25,000 copies for a #1 reboot. And 10,000 copies is less than late VH 1 or VH2 print runs.

A comic book costs $4.00. $2.00 to the retailer, how much for printing and distributing??? $1.50? This leaves 50 cents to VEI per copy X 10,000 copies = $5,000 from book sales.

You cannot make a comic book for $5,000. The penciller alone should get $5,000 just for pencil art! Think about it- $5,000 per issue, 12 issues = $60,000 a year income which is what run of the mill artists make. Penciling is time consuming and doing a series is a full time job. So unless they're paying in Yen, I have no idea how they're getting the overhead to producing a book that's going to return $5,000.

Another thing I recently realized- VEI pretended they were making a Harbinger movie just to see if Jim Shooter or anyone else would claim ownership. With no one claiming it, they then started making the comics. You folks were all lied to and led on.

I had a bad feeling when I heard there was going to be a relaunch in 2012 by VEI because I was afraid they wouldn't have enough glue to hold together a universe without the three central GK characters including Solar, who created all VALIANT universes.

I sure hope this post stays here and does not fall into a black hole, call me the harbinger of doom.

Your numbers do not reflect the digital or TPB sales. Plus, time after time, Dinesh has shared with us that they have the fiscal backing to follow their path of slow, steady, and measured growth while keeping their firm commitment to absolute quality and producing each title on time. They have always met that standard, series after series. They do not NEED to make their income solely off the sale of the monthlies. If that was all they had, then they would not have been here as long as they have but that is NOT the case. They have a solid business plan, they continue to stick rigidly to it, and they continue to exceed their own goals along a charted path. There is NO concern about the viability of VEI now or during the next few years. Another member here stated that THIS is the Golden Age and we are fortunate to be able to see it and be a part of it as it is unfolding. Harbinger of Doom? I think not. Simply a member who is not close enough to the action to have the facts which demonstrate the plan which has been in place for years and continues to work, month after month. So simply enjoy the stellar products which continue to emanate from VEI offices each month and leave the fiscal and business concerns to the people who know the details. That way you have no concerns and can simply enjoy the return of the most fan friendly comics company out there today, bar none

[bygranddesign]

Your numbers do not reflect the digital or TPB sales. Plus, time after time, Dinesh has shared with us that they have the fiscal backing to follow their path of slow, steady, and measured growth while keeping their firm commitment to absolute quality and producing each title on time. They have always met that standard, series after series. They do not NEED to make their income solely off the sale of the monthlies. If that was all they had, then they would not have been here as long as they have but that is NOT the case. They have a solid business plan, they continue to stick rigidly to it, and they continue to exceed their own goals along a charted path. There is NO concern about the viability of VEI now or during the next few years. Another member here stated that THIS is the Golden Age and we are fortunate to be able to see it and be a part of it as it is unfolding. Harbinger of Doom? I think not. Simply a member who is not close enough to the action to have the facts which demonstrate the plan which has been in place for years and continues to work, month after month. So simply enjoy the stellar products which continue to emanate from VEI offices each month and leave the fiscal and business concerns to the people who know the details. That way you have no concerns and can simply enjoy the return of the most fan friendly comics company out there today, bar none

[drmirage]

Well said sir Bruce.

[ilzuccone]

meh closest thing to a "doomed" emoticon.

[x-omatic]

For all the doom & gloom think about this.

Valiant has done a better job than VH 2.
Since they started only one book has really been delayed and that is the Eternal Warrior masters.

In addition to normal issue sales they ate doing very well with trades.

Harbinger, X-O, A&A, Bloodshot, Shadowman, all are on second prints.

They have also been successful with shirts and other collectibles.

[bribri]

This thread is amazing!

Completely devoid of accurate facts but amazing nonetheless

This.

[lorddunlow]

This, ladies and gentlemen, is what tenure does to an otherwise productive scientific mind:

Upward trend?

So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.

Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)

Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG

Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may not know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.

Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growth curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growth (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growth down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).

Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG

So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).

Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG

Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)

[lorddunlow]

Also, this thread is what comes of me leaving y'all alone for a few days. I guess no more breaks for me. Policing you guys will be my duty from now on...

[Keith]

Also, this thread is what comes of me leaving y'all alone for a few days. I guess no more breaks for me. Policing you guys will be my duty from now on...

As long as you realize the error of your ways, we'll let it slide.

[StarBrand]

Man, I need to start reading more sales discussion threads! This is highly entertaining!

[Ramses818]

Still loving this thread, and to Bruce . It's a little funny that people think Valiant is only 3 years old...how quickly we all forget they have been publishing for 3 years!, they have been a company for much longer. Doom Sayers I say to you look back at some of the threads on the internet (they are easy to find if you want! ) from 3 years ago where people were shouting from the mountain tops that they would probably never publish a issue. Then they said at 1 or 2 books a month they would never get to issue 6! VEI (and I do mean everyone from the company!) has stated from the very beginning that they would take it slow and steady. And it's funny how every single convention they have to re iterate that they are going to keep it small so they can do what they want. Does this sound like people who are running around like chickens with their heads cut off? Because in the three years of publishing and the many years before that I have heard these doomsayers change their stories more often then that.

[Carson]

And now back to GI Joe?