Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8s on eBay (past and current auctions)

[Knightt]

I really wish I was smarter (I only know how to fish, f^%k, fight, and throw rocks)

Same here... just not necessarily in that order.

For reals ! I've heard tell you're one helluva' rock thrower, Knightt !!

Meh, I can pass muster, for reals.

Thanks

[DirtbagSailor]

Who's to say what something 'should' sell for?

Nobody and everyone I suppose. You could also sell 1,000 Troy pounds of 24k Gold for $1 if you really wanted to, but the market value for 24k Gold right now is $1378.60 per "Troy Ounce," and since there are 12 "Troy Ounces" in one Troy pound, 1,000 Troy pounds of 24k Gold "SHOULD" sell for $16,543,200. To sell if for less actually hurts the market. The same is true for cars, baseball cards, and yes, issues of Harbinger #1.

I don't understand this point at all....why does the book have to be sold at +5% more? Why not, the same price? Why not less?

Things that are commonly "sold" tend to hold value, and that value will either increase or decrease depending on the demand and the price that people are willing to pay. Occasionally, issues will be sold for lower than market value, which in turn lowers the market value with each sale.

Even IF most people sold their Harbinger #1’s for EXACTLY market value, the occasional “BARGAIN” would lower the average purchase price, and therefore the market value.

For example:
Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 sells for $450 on December 1st
Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 sells for $450 on December 3rd
Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 sells for $450 on December 4th
Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 sells for $450 on December 5th
Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 sells for $365 on December 7th

The average sale price in this case is $433, which is LESS THAN $450. So IF sellers continue to ONLY sell for the price listed, then there will be depreciation in value over time (which is what has occurred anyway since 2008).

You can’t just sell Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 for $900 (yet...), as pretty much no one will buy it since it costs double its listed market value and FAR outside of their reasonable comfort zone. HOWEVER, a small increase in the sale price might be acceptable to potential buyers, which I suggest as 5% (could also be 4% or 6%, etc) reverses this, and over time the market value for each book sold INCREASES the market value of that issue.

Many people are in the business of selling comic books, and they like the value to be greater than what they invested so that when the book is later sold it yields a profit. That may not be your idea or goal, but it is for many people.

So the reason for NOT selling it or buying it for less is to protect your investment, as well as the investment of others. It's also basic math.

[DirtbagSailor]

Who's to say what something 'should' sell for?

I don't understand this point at all....why does the book have to be sold at +5% more? Why not, the same price? Why not less?

After reading the last 48 pages of this thread, I can see that you have been all over this topic for many years, so I apologize for the rude and condescending tone of my previous post. I can see that you pretty much have a solid understaning of how things are bought and sold in relation to their value.

My reason is that I (personally) do not like seeing good books drop in value when they otherwise could increase in value. I mean this for ALL key-Valiant books, and suspect that as Valiant continues to grow and take a larger share of the market this will occur.

[Chiclo]

You can’t just sell Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 for $900 (yet...),

There was a time where one could reliably expect that price or more. Harby 1 CGC 9.8 has recorded sales as high as $2500.

[DirtbagSailor]

You can’t just sell Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 for $900 (yet...),

There was a time where one could reliably expect that price or more. Harby 1 CGC 9.8 has recorded sales as high as $2500.

Understood, but what what I was referring to is at this present time. There is good reason to believe that one day yet we will see those sort of numbers again, but not if we are buying/selling for less than market value.

New Mutants #98 was released in 1991, and at present there are 1,182 CGC 9.8's (113 of which are SS). This number is FAR higher than the number of Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 (presently at 124...), yet the demand for NM#98 is enormous and so are the prices it demands. One large difference is limited awareness of Harbinger #1's existence, as many comic book enthusiasts either have not been exposed to Valiant's superior products yet, or are simply unaware all together. It's a marketing issue, that may eventually be resolved over time, but I can say that Harbinger #1 being listed as the #1 comic book of the 90's exposed a lot of otherwise unaware people to the concept of getting their hands on a copy, and rumors of a movie seemed to help boost sales as well.

As Valiant continues to grow, so will the demand for older issues. As video games, movies, and social media references and plugs expose new readers and collectors to the Valiant Universe, even 2000 Harbinger #1's at 9.8 on the census will not be enough to feed the demand.

[FormerReader]

So, yer sayin'... make sure and carry the 3 or multiply 2.73, right ?

Lol! I'm saying that selling prices for key-books need to increase by 5% as each time the guide price is updated.

I really wish I was smarter (I only know how to fish, f^%k, fight, and throw rocks -- Oh yea, and increase the value of comic books! ).

I would love to see this book increase in price, but it has been shown by recent sales that this book will not sell at 5% above the guide value. The auctions have dictated what the market price is and unfortuanantely for now the price is dropping. You cannot force the market to pay a artifically price. The book will just sit unsold. Hopefully in time the market will pick-up for these books.

[GGSAE]

Who's to say what something 'should' sell for?

I don't understand this point at all....why does the book have to be sold at +5% more? Why not, the same price? Why not less?

After reading the last 48 pages of this thread, I can see that you have been all over this topic for many years, so I apologize for the rude and condescending tone of my previous post. I can see that you pretty much have a solid understaning of how things are bought and sold in relation to their value.

My reason is that I (personally) do not like seeing good books drop in value when they otherwise could increase in value. I mean this for ALL key-Valiant books, and suspect that as Valiant continues to grow and take a larger share of the market this will occur.

That's alright, I hadn't read much into it anyway. But when you understand behavior finance, you'll realize the drawbacks of valuation models. I don't like the comparison of an alternative asset class like rare collectibles to an intangible financial instrument, such as stocks or bonds, because of the appropriate discounted buyback models (dividend discount model, for example) that offer instant returns. They're (the latter) is also based on the premise of being a perpetual entity, based on growth. Comic books, is a total wildcard. New buyers could come into the market at anytime, or collectors in a particular comic might have a systemic exodus. Again, if any of you guys want to buy because it means something to you then by all means (I once paid the highest price ever for a comic book, Maxx Black, and that number has since been greatly exceeded). I didn't buy that book as a speculative buy, I bought it because I wanted it.

[GGSAE]

You can’t just sell Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 for $900 (yet...),

There was a time where one could reliably expect that price or more. Harby 1 CGC 9.8 has recorded sales as high as $2500.

Understood, but what what I was referring to is at this present time. There is good reason to believe that one day yet we will see those sort of numbers again, but not if we are buying/selling for less than market value.

New Mutants #98 was released in 1991, and at present there are 1,182 CGC 9.8's (113 of which are SS). This number is FAR higher than the number of Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 (presently at 124...), yet the demand for NM#98 is enormous and so are the prices it demands. One large difference is limited awareness of Harbinger #1's existence, as many comic book enthusiasts either have not been exposed to Valiant's superior products yet, or are simply unaware all together. It's a marketing issue, that may eventually be resolved over time, but I can say that Harbinger #1 being listed as the #1 comic book of the 90's exposed a lot of otherwise unaware people to the concept of getting their hands on a copy, and rumors of a movie seemed to help boost sales as well.

As Valiant continues to grow, so will the demand for older issues. As video games, movies, and social media references and plugs expose new readers and collectors to the Valiant Universe, even 2000 Harbinger #1's at 9.8 on the census will not be enough to feed the demand.

Again, this is all your opinion. I'm not saying it's wrong, but it's all subjective. So far the relaunch has not shown an increase in VH1 prices, they've probably declined if anything. I think a lot of it will be based on alternatives of choice. I said before the number of variants probably has deterred collectors from going after high grade VH1 books. And I think a more-established history of VE1 has the most to affect the books. I'm hoping harbinger hits triple digit books, and when readers and collectors finally start to acknowledge a legitimate, top-tier company, you'll see an increase in the aftermarket demand (whether that's VH1 or VE1 is up in the air).

[DirtbagSailor]

Again, this is all your opinion. I'm not saying it's wrong, but it's all subjective. So far the relaunch has not shown an increase in VH1 prices, they've probably declined if anything. I think a lot of it will be based on alternatives of choice. I said before the number of variants probably has deterred collectors from going after high grade VH1 books. And I think a more-established history of VE1 has the most to affect the books. I'm hoping harbinger hits triple digit books, and when readers and collectors finally start to acknowledge a legitimate, top-tier company, you'll see an increase in the aftermarket demand (whether that's VH1 or VE1 is up in the air).

There are indeed many intangibles to consider. Right now Marvel is MASSIVE due to a number of recent business deals and unprecedented marketing. They have managed to take otherwise "B" list characters and make them into household names, and an entire new generation now has Avengers/Wolverine/X-Men mania.

I believe that popular culture can be guided in a given direction. There are MILLIONS of people running about who are ready to dig into the market, but simply have not been exposed to it, made aware, or motivated correctly.

This past week I had a conversation with a Marvel collector, and told him all about the awesomeness that is Valiant. A few days later, I observed on facebook that he was talking about Valiant to OTHER collectors, and so it spreads a little more.

What we need are a few well-made YouTube videos and Memes, as well as some more recent Top 10 lists floating about the internet. We need Yaya Han to dress up as a Valiant character at Comic Con, and ComicBookMovie.com to post a thread each week. We need a movie to make a reference to Valiant books, if not a Valiant movie itself.

But Greg made a good point the other day in a different thread that he believes that due to the re-launch, the pot of consumer funds is split between VH1 and VE1, with more money being focused on VE1 at present since it is the new thing. But once those collectors obtain all the XXXXX #0’s and #1’s in the various editions and variants, it won’t be long before the demand of a VH1 9.8 Shadowman #1 surpasses that of a VE1 9.8 Shadowman #16, and the consumers slowly begin to start collecting the VH1 key-books again since their VE1 collections are set, and they are motivated to move on the second phase of their collection: the classic issues.

[StarBrand]

I haven't been watching closely all along, but I was watching closely when the relaunch began, and I think what happened is the relaunch initially saw significant heat on V1 prices relative to key issues. Then, sellers reacted to that increased demand for the books by rushing to list V1 keys for sale, both slabbed and unslabbed, and saturating the market.
This is a relatively common chain of events when something gets hot, and I've seen this time and again on eBay, albeit mostly with sports cards. Suddenly a player's rookie cards get hot, they surge in price, and then sellers list so many they fall in price. If there is long-term demand, which I am confident there is with V1 keys, this chain of events serves to flush out copies that were just laying around unlisted. It's sort of like the reserve forces have now been committed. In the long-term, I believe the fact so many sellers have now listed their copies or submitted them to CGC due to the initial increased demand for them due to the relaunch just gets many of them out of the way, setting Valiant keys up for future price increases. Sellers now have a thinner back issue inventory of Valiant keys, and long-term demand can now be met by fewer available copies being held currently in reserve.

[nycjadie]

Totally agree with that. It's the usual up and bump of collecting. Personally, I think the going rate is $400, and I don't expect it to go much lower than that. I think it's nearly bottomed out. However, I would love for it to go up 5% a year!

[DirtbagSailor]

On a related note, I just sold a Harbinger #1 CGC 9.4 to a board member, and the closing cost was $78 out the door (so, MV+ 23%).

Where could this sale/transaction be reported/recorded so that Harby #1 CGC 9.4 market value reflects the this recent sale price? Not that I have a massive stack of 9.4's just laying around to sell, but, well, you know how I feel.

[greg]

Auctions record a market price point based upon the 2nd highest bidder plus 1 bid increment.

Fixed-price sales record a market price point based upon the 1st bidder... even if no other buyers would approach that price.
Even if no one buys a fixed-price book, it still continually reinforces the idea that the book is always available at that price.

Auctions end lower than fixed-price sales because auctions require a "push" from a second person that isn't required in fixed-price.

If there were no regular-format auctions of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 occurring, the only option for obtaining a copy would be fixed-price.

As long as there are regular auctions occurring with starting prices below the recent average, it's VERY likely that the end price will be driven by the 2nd bidder
and will be lower than whatever fixed-price options are out there. (Otherwise, the first AND second bidders would just grab fixed-price books.)

When CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 is sold for under $400, it is selling at a loss... UNLESS the seller is the one who slabbed the book.
The one who has the book slabbed has the option to sell for any price above his own cost... a cost significantly less than $400.

When a copy of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 has been sold at least once, it's likely that the next sale will be above the previous sale price for the same book.
People don't like to lose money.

The current problem with CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 is that, literally, too many have been slabbed recently. There are too many first-sales occurring right now.
There are too many sellers with a lot less than $400 invested in their recently-slabbed book. They don't need $400+ to profit.

If the number of 9.8s being slabbed decreases from what it has been recently, the fixed-price, second-sale, third-sale, etc., will be the market...
and unless people want to lose money... those will be priced higher than the first-sales.

[GGSAE]

Again, this is all your opinion. I'm not saying it's wrong, but it's all subjective. So far the relaunch has not shown an increase in VH1 prices, they've probably declined if anything. I think a lot of it will be based on alternatives of choice. I said before the number of variants probably has deterred collectors from going after high grade VH1 books. And I think a more-established history of VE1 has the most to affect the books. I'm hoping harbinger hits triple digit books, and when readers and collectors finally start to acknowledge a legitimate, top-tier company, you'll see an increase in the aftermarket demand (whether that's VH1 or VE1 is up in the air).

There are indeed many intangibles to consider. Right now Marvel is MASSIVE due to a number of recent business deals and unprecedented marketing. They have managed to take otherwise "B" list characters and make them into household names, and an entire new generation now has Avengers/Wolverine/X-Men mania.

I believe that popular culture can be guided in a given direction. There are MILLIONS of people running about who are ready to dig into the market, but simply have not been exposed to it, made aware, or motivated correctly.

This past week I had a conversation with a Marvel collector, and told him all about the awesomeness that is Valiant. A few days later, I observed on facebook that he was talking about Valiant to OTHER collectors, and so it spreads a little more.

What we need are a few well-made YouTube videos and Memes, as well as some more recent Top 10 lists floating about the internet. We need Yaya Han to dress up as a Valiant character at Comic Con, and ComicBookMovie.com to post a thread each week. We need a movie to make a reference to Valiant books, if not a Valiant movie itself.

But Greg made a good point the other day in a different thread that he believes that due to the re-launch, the pot of consumer funds is split between VH1 and VE1, with more money being focused on VE1 at present since it is the new thing. But once those collectors obtain all the XXXXX #0’s and #1’s in the various editions and variants, it won’t be long before the demand of a VH1 9.8 Shadowman #1 surpasses that of a VE1 9.8 Shadowman #16, and the consumers slowly begin to start collecting the VH1 key-books again since their VE1 collections are set, and they are motivated to move on the second phase of their collection: the classic issues.

Definitely. And many of us have talked about this as well, simply put it's going to take time (probably years) before Valiant is even in the same breath as the big two. These companies have been around for sooo long, and are sooo entrenched in pop-culture, it's not a fair comparison to market valiant prices to marvel/dc books. Also keep in mind the print runs on VH1, dwarfs even the lowest pre-unity books.

[GGSAE]

Auctions record a market price point based upon the 2nd highest bidder plus 1 bid increment.

Fixed-price sales record a market price point based upon the 1st bidder... even if no other buyers would approach that price.
Even if no one buys a fixed-price book, it still continually reinforces the idea that the book is always available at that price.

Auctions end lower than fixed-price sales because auctions require a "push" from a second person that isn't required in fixed-price.

If there were no regular-format auctions of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 occurring, the only option for obtaining a copy would be fixed-price.

As long as there are regular auctions occurring with starting prices below the recent average, it's VERY likely that the end price will be driven by the 2nd bidder
and will be lower than whatever fixed-price options are out there. (Otherwise, the first AND second bidders would just grab fixed-price books.)

When CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 is sold for under $400, it is selling at a loss... UNLESS the seller is the one who slabbed the book.
The one who has the book slabbed has the option to sell for any price above his own cost... a cost significantly less than $400.

When a copy of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 has been sold at least once, it's likely that the next sale will be above the previous sale price for the same book.
People don't like to lose money.

The current problem with CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 is that, literally, too many have been slabbed recently. There are too many first-sales occurring right now.
There are too many sellers with a lot less than $400 invested in their recently-slabbed book. They don't need $400+ to profit.

If the number of 9.8s being slabbed decreases from what it has been recently, the fixed-price, second-sale, third-sale, etc., will be the market...
and unless people want to lose money... those will be priced higher than the first-sales.

This is almost based on a efficient market hypothesis, but the fact is people will lose money all the time on these transactions. There was a seller that tried to provide a floor for Harbinger 1 9.8 at 1k, buying as many books as he/she could. Then turned around and was dumping them in the $500-800 range. If a seller bought something based (primarily) on speculative purposes their leash will be tighter than the collector buying for his collection.

[StarBrand]

There hasn't been a Harbinger 1 in CGC 9.8 listed on eBay auction style in a couple weeks.

[DirtbagSailor]

There hasn't been a Harbinger 1 in CGC 9.8 listed on eBay auction style in a couple weeks.

Harbinger #1 – CGC 9.8 (WHITE Pages) Valiant Comics, 2 bids, $20 with 6 days left
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Harbinger-1-CGC ... 338589bfa7" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[StarBrand]

There hasn't been a Harbinger 1 in CGC 9.8 listed on eBay auction style in a couple weeks.

Harbinger #1 – CGC 9.8 (WHITE Pages) Valiant Comics, 2 bids, $20 with 6 days left
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Harbinger-1-CGC ... 338589bfa7" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's going to be interesting to see how much this one goes for, especially if no more are listed auction style for the duration of this auction.

[DirtbagSailor]

There hasn't been a Harbinger 1 in CGC 9.8 listed on eBay auction style in a couple weeks.

Harbinger #1 – CGC 9.8 (WHITE Pages) Valiant Comics, 2 bids, $20 with 6 days left
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Harbinger-1-CGC ... 338589bfa7" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's going to be interesting to see how much this one goes for, especially if no more are listed auction style for the duration of this auction.

Already up to $202.

[DirtbagSailor]

What we SHOULD do, is advertize this auction on the varrious forums and pages that we are members of, and see what happens when 10-20 bidders want the same book.

Note: NOT my auction^^^^

[BloodShot]

Already up to $202.

Make that $305.

Yer welcome .

[StarBrand]

Already up to $202.

Make that $305.

Yer welcome .

Yer thanked.

[BloodShot]

Already up to $202.

Make that $305.

Yer welcome .

Yer thanked.

[GGSAE]

What we SHOULD do, is advertize this auction on the varrious forums and pages that we are members of, and see what happens when 10-20 bidders want the same book.

Note: NOT my auction^^^^

That would sully the comparison of other books. If you want to go ahead and promote the *SQUEE* out of something, then by all means, but do it for each book.

[DirtbagSailor]

That would sully the comparison of other books. If you want to go ahead and promote the *SQUEE* out of something, then by all means, but do it for each book.

Prehaps, or it could cause a potential buyer to take a look at Harby #1, then realize it is out of his price-range, while at the same time reminding him/her of Valiant's existance. He/she then, potentially might take a look at something other than Harby #1 (e.g. Shadowman, X-O, A&A, etc) and decide that one of those issues on sale IS within his/her price-range, and now we have another book sold and a new potential repeat Valiant buyer.

Or, nothing could happen at all.