Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8s on eBay (past and current auctions)

[iggy101us]

I looked at his feedback a little more and found more completed Harby #1 CGC 9.8s that he bought. So desirableitems bought 5 of the last 6 Harby #1s

[slym2none]

He's looking for pressing candidates - I imagine a 9.9 or 10.0 Harby #1 would be pretty nice.

*runs and hides*



-slym

[iggy101us]

He hasn't hit the 2 current auctions with $1,000 BINs. I wonder why he's stopping.

[400yrs]

He hasn't hit the 2 current auctions with $1,000 BINs. I wonder why he's stopping.

It could be that he's done. Or it could be that since they are BINs, there is no risk that that they will move for cheap and therefore, less need to cover his unit (protect his investment).

[sckao]

There seems to be a Sports Card and Collectibles company in Canada called Gem Mint Collectibles. I don't know if it's the same outfit though.

Actually, since they have Yankees tickets, they're likely in the NY area.

[superman-prime]

gen if its the ne know of is questionable at best

[slym2none]

gen if its the ne know of is questionable at best

-slym (English, man... ENGLISH!)

[SnotDrip]

Ok then...we now have somebody out "there" purposefully inflating the market or at minimum keeping it from devaluating to possibly its true value...below 1K. Do I have this correct??

[GGSAE]

Ok then...we now have somebody out "there" purposefully inflating the market or at minimum keeping it from devaluating to possibly its true value...below 1K. Do I have this correct??

He can't hold the price forever, the mkt's gonna go where it's supposed too...

[depluto]

Ok then...we now have somebody out "there" purposefully inflating the market or at minimum keeping it from devaluating to possibly its true value...below 1K. Do I have this correct??

He can't hold the price forever, the mkt's gonna go where it's supposed too...

True, and funny.

[iggy101us]

Updated the 2 auctions that ended today in the 1st post . . . both unsold.

I expected the auction with the $1,800 BIN who rejected 2 offers to not to sell. But the $925 starting bid did not get a bid even though the seller was throwing in a pink Harby #0 with free shipping.

[iggy101us]

Updated 1st post with auction that ended last night. There were no bids ($750 minimum bid) and the Harby #1 was immediately relisted with $0.99 starting price.

[ckb]

Updated 1st post with auction that ended last night. There were no bids ($750 minimum bid) and the Harby #1 was immediately relisted with $0.99 starting price.

And no reserve. Not the most rational thing to do...

I'm sure there are shills at the ready....

[Daniel Jackson]

Updated 1st post with auction that ended last night. There were no bids ($750 minimum bid) and the Harby #1 was immediately relisted with $0.99 starting price.

And no reserve. Not the most rational thing to do...

I'm sure there are shills at the ready...

Don't worry, I'm sure ebay will be on top of that.....

[comicsyte95]

I'm betting desirableitems will be at the ready trying to keep the market inflated.

[iggy101us]

I'm betting desirableitems will be at the ready trying to keep the market inflated.

I am not so sure since he didn't hit the $1,000 BIN last week and hasn't hit the $975 BIN in one of the current auctions. I am surprised no one bid on the $750 min bid auction - well, could be bad timing since it was 7/4 weekend.

[ckb]

I'm betting desirableitems will be at the ready trying to keep the market inflated.

If there ever is a decent Harbinger film we'll be looking at those purchases as genius instead of inflation.

Just sayin'.

[playparadise]

Once this book gets within a reasonable price range I'll try and pick one up for my collection.

Even if a movie is released the hype won't last long and I can't image this book ever getting back to the $1000.00 plus levels.

If people are buying this book on the notion that they're going to make a huge profit I believe they're mistaken. The only people benefiting are the sellers that have access to raw books and are able to find a market willing enough to pay massive premiums for that 9.8 sticker.

I'm confident that more, and more, 9.8's will come out of the wood work and the price will continue to drop, and eventually stabilize, once it's apparent that this book in 9.8 condition really isn't all that scare. This has already occurred with most 9.8 valiant’s.

I think it would be fair to say that VF board members dominate the market and I'm guessing have already satisfied/completed a good portion of their collection(s).

I'm sure that recent sellers are more than thrilled to have someone try and "buy-out" the market and keep the prices up. This will only encourage dealers to happily submit additional books and hope that this collector is still willing to win auctions.

With all the financial difficulties that many of us are feeling right now I’m sure most people have better use for their money then high priced modern books. Plus, like everything else, people where probably buying their collectables with credit and it was only a matter of time until all markets have been effected by the “credit crunch”.

I've already noticed a serious depreciation in all kinds of comics. Some, less dramatic than others.

[GGSAE]

I'm betting desirableitems will be at the ready trying to keep the market inflated.

If there ever is a decent Harbinger film we'll be looking at those purchases as genius instead of inflation.

Just sayin'.

Then start buying! I have a difficult time believing that those who purchased this book at 1k or more will suddenly start buying more. That's what we call in the trading world 'adding to a losing position'. Those that care enough to have that sought after 9.8 in their collection will be happy with that; we've already established who the buyers in this market are - primarily this board - and the overwhelming sentiment here is that most of us (even those with the means) won't purchase this book around the 1k price. I still think the book will drop more in value but if it levels off around the 1k, i wouldn't expect it to jump much above that so in other words little incentive to buy if you were a speculator. The euphoric move above 2k was just that, the bubble has popped.

[greg]

I have been giving a lot of thought to the possibility that there is a "concept value"
that is associated with items like comic books, similar to the "market capitalization" value
in the stock market.

In this discussion, the "concept value" would be the total collective value of all
CGC 9.8 copies of Harbinger #1 in the world at the time.

In 2008, there were 17 copies of Harbinger #1 in CGC 9.8 condition.
The average price in 2008 was about $1,863.

So, if the whole "concept value"/"market cap" of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 is calculated for 2008,
the result would be about $31,671.

Now, fast-forward to the current CGC 9.8 count of 37.

Let's take that $31,671 "concept value" and divide it by 37.
The result is $856.

Doesn't that sound like a logical current price for CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1?

[playparadise]

I have been giving a lot of thought to the possibility that there is a "concept value"
that is associated with items like comic books, similar to the "market capitalization" value
in the stock market.

In this discussion, the "concept value" would be the total collective value of all
CGC 9.8 copies of Harbinger #1 in the world at the time.

In 2008, there were 17 copies of Harbinger #1 in CGC 9.8 condition.
The average price in 2008 was about $1,863.

So, if the whole "concept value"/"market cap" of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 is calculated for 2008,
the result would be about $31,671.

Now, fast-forward to the current CGC 9.8 count of 37.

Let's take that $31,671 "concept value" and divide it by 37.
The result is $856.

Doesn't that sound like a logical current price for CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1?

That is very insightful and interesting logic.

I like the way you established an "IPO" type valuation.

When it comes to a stock market cap. type valuation I believe that it's fundamentally based on the perceived future stream of dividends (or other such distributions to share/unit holders).

Since a "comic book" can't provide such a payback I believe its value would be similar to precious metals (when thought of for its intrinsic value, not is industrial properties/usage).

[greg]

That is very insightful and interesting logic.

I like the way you established an "IPO" type valuation.

When it comes to a stock market cap. type valuation I believe that it's fundamentally based on the perceived future stream of dividends (or other such distributions to share/unit holders).

Since a "comic book" can't provide such a payback I believe its value would be similar to precious metals (when thought of for its intrinsic value, not is industrial properties/usage).

That's true... the only "future stream of dividends" that I can envision are related
to the "growth" in popularity of the characters, either through new material,
new media, or even nostalgia.

Interestingly for our calculations here, before Harbinger was announced as a potential movie project,
the "market cap" for the existing copies of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 at the time hovered around $15,000.

The "movie news" is what appears to have bumped the "cap" to $31K.

Something similar happened with Watchmen...
The prices being paid for CGC 9.8 Watchmen #1 have fallen dramatically,
but the announcement of the Watchmen movie pushed the overall "market cap" up,
then the increase in the CGC census numbers for Watchmen seem to have split
that same "market cap" across many more examples, causing the price to plummet.

However, the "market cap" for CGC 9.8 Watchmen #1 appears the same as it has been for a couple of years...
only the "per item" price has fallen... the total value appears stable.

[ckb]

I'm betting desirableitems will be at the ready trying to keep the market inflated.

If there ever is a decent Harbinger film we'll be looking at those purchases as genius instead of inflation.

Just sayin'.

Then start buying! I have a difficult time believing that those who purchased this book at 1k or more will suddenly start buying more. That's what we call in the trading world 'adding to a losing position'. Those that care enough to have that sought after 9.8 in their collection will be happy with that; we've already established who the buyers in this market are - primarily this board - and the overwhelming sentiment here is that most of us (even those with the means) won't purchase this book around the 1k price. I still think the book will drop more in value but if it levels off around the 1k, i wouldn't expect it to jump much above that so in other words little incentive to buy if you were a speculator. The euphoric move above 2k was just that, the bubble has popped.

I think the point that is being missed is that mainstream exposure would broaden the appeal greatly. This is already a mega-key for the 90's and collected by more than this board!

Seriously, I would be buying if I knew the movie was a certainty to be made and widely distributed, seen, and liked. But there's way too much doubt in there.

Believe me, I would love to see 500 H1 9.8s on the census and the price be $25 postage paid. Then I could own one and sleep easy at night. But we are never going to see that.

I also want to mention that I don't see where talk of the "book being common in high grade" is coming from. You don't look look at the census to make that determination on a 90's book with a 50K print run - you have to look at all the books that didn't make in onto the census after a 9.8 sold for $2500. The fact that there are only 30 or so more 9.8s since then is absolutely astounding and the true testament to how uncommon it is to find a copy CGC will grade highly.

[Escaflown4]

I'm betting desirableitems will be at the ready trying to keep the market inflated.

If there ever is a decent Harbinger film we'll be looking at those purchases as genius instead of inflation.

Just sayin'.

Then start buying! I have a difficult time believing that those who purchased this book at 1k or more will suddenly start buying more. That's what we call in the trading world 'adding to a losing position'. Those that care enough to have that sought after 9.8 in their collection will be happy with that; we've already established who the buyers in this market are - primarily this board - and the overwhelming sentiment here is that most of us (even those with the means) won't purchase this book around the 1k price. I still think the book will drop more in value but if it levels off around the 1k, i wouldn't expect it to jump much above that so in other words little incentive to buy if you were a speculator. The euphoric move above 2k was just that, the bubble has popped.

I think the point that is being missed is that mainstream exposure would broaden the appeal greatly. This is already a mega-key for the 90's and collected by more than this board!

Seriously, I would be buying if I knew the movie was a certainty to be made and widely distributed, seen, and liked. But there's way too much doubt in there.

Believe me, I would love to see 500 H1 9.8s on the census and the price be $25 postage paid. Then I could own one and sleep easy at night. But we are never going to see that.

I also want to mention that I don't see where talk of the "book being common in high grade" is coming from. You don't look look at the census to make that determination on a 90's book with a 50K print run - you have to look at all the books that didn't make in onto the census after a 9.8 sold for $2500. The fact that there are only 30 or so more 9.8s since then is absolutely astounding and the true testament to how uncommon it is to find a copy CGC will grade highly.

Yeah I agree that this book is not common at all. However, with a print run of 48,000, there's guaranteed to be more coming in the near future even with the cheap paper stock it was printed on. The whole argument is that the $2500 sale was based purely on the "rarity' factor. Now that factor is gone and 9.8 copies have flooded the market. Even with a mega hit movie coming out, I can't see how the value of the book can ever hit back that high. As of right now, Paramount is sitting on the rights and they have no plans to begin filming anytime soon. Also since they tapped Brett Ratner for the project, my expectations plunged to the lowest possible. X-Men 3 anybody? VEI have also been on the down low and no one knows what they are up to. Let's face it, the outlook seems pretty grim. Everything right now points the book to be a bad investment. IMO, The single and only 90's book that can ever maintain a value of $2500 or more is just Bone #1 first print. Now that is a true rare book to find in 9.8 and a worthy investment.

[GGSAE]

I'm betting desirableitems will be at the ready trying to keep the market inflated.

If there ever is a decent Harbinger film we'll be looking at those purchases as genius instead of inflation.

Just sayin'.

Then start buying! I have a difficult time believing that those who purchased this book at 1k or more will suddenly start buying more. That's what we call in the trading world 'adding to a losing position'. Those that care enough to have that sought after 9.8 in their collection will be happy with that; we've already established who the buyers in this market are - primarily this board - and the overwhelming sentiment here is that most of us (even those with the means) won't purchase this book around the 1k price. I still think the book will drop more in value but if it levels off around the 1k, i wouldn't expect it to jump much above that so in other words little incentive to buy if you were a speculator. The euphoric move above 2k was just that, the bubble has popped.

I think the point that is being missed is that mainstream exposure would broaden the appeal greatly. This is already a mega-key for the 90's and collected by more than this board!

Seriously, I would be buying if I knew the movie was a certainty to be made and widely distributed, seen, and liked. But there's way too much doubt in there.

Believe me, I would love to see 500 H1 9.8s on the census and the price be $25 postage paid. Then I could own one and sleep easy at night. But we are never going to see that.

I also want to mention that I don't see where talk of the "book being common in high grade" is coming from. You don't look look at the census to make that determination on a 90's book with a 50K print run - you have to look at all the books that didn't make in onto the census after a 9.8 sold for $2500. The fact that there are only 30 or so more 9.8s since then is absolutely astounding and the true testament to how uncommon it is to find a copy CGC will grade highly.

I never said the book was common in high grade, my point is that for the price to stay above $1k as you imply there has to be solid support for it at these levels - which there is none. There have been several now with bins below that going untouched, the price hasn't stopped declining yet, let alone consolidate before the new price range is formed. Until some buyers step in the supply will only increase and the selling pressure will put it lower. So it's far too early to speculate that 1k is going to be looked upon as a great buy until we see the bottom. The whole movie argument is one huge IF, not something i would rest my laurels on.