CGC = multiples of guide

smoothpie · Post by **smoothpie** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 12:56 pm

Do folks have a general "rule of thumb" for multiples of guide for higher grade issues? Let's say you pay Overtstreet guide for a 9.2 (or perhaps 9.4 if its a modern book), what factor would the higher grades be worth?

I know there are various factors to consider (key issue, age, CGC census), but for the sake of argument lets say you don't know the census report. What would you calculate the value of 9.4 (9.6 modern) and up to be?

DawgPhan · Post by **DawgPhan** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 1:44 pm

Is it a key?
How many others are in that grade?
What book is it?
When was it graded?
How does it look?
What were the grader's notes?
Could I resub for a better grade?

Let's say the book is ASM #32.

I would say that a 9.4 is probably 2-3 times the value of a 9.2..If the book was ASM #33 I would say 1-2 times since I believe that there are a ton of high grade 33's because of a warehouse find...

With keys I would say that everything goes out the window...

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 4:52 pm

Population, population, population.

I'll pay $150 for a 9.8 Batman #428...because there are only 2 currently, and none higher (and not likely to be more.)

I won't pay, say, $20 for a Spawn #1 9.8, because there are billions of them in that grade, and many higher.

The same translates into Bronze, Silver, and Gold, and while to a lesser extent than moderns, it still has a GREAT effect on the price.

There are 9 copies of Spiderman #32 graded 9.6. None higher.

There are 38 copies of Spiderman #33 graded 9.6, and 5 graded 9.8.

What's going to make the difference in price, then, is obviously the population. Spiderman #32, while editorially virtually identical (non-key, Ditko spidey in the 30's, etc.) it is FAR more rare, and thus will command a FAR higher price in uberhigh grade.

It's ALL about population.

So...just basing prices on some mathematical 'multiple' of Guide is really doing yourself a disservice. Check the populations FIRST. It's most important.

400yrs · Post by **400yrs** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 5:10 pm

I agree with Zeph's population theory. Wish I would've thought of that when I bought the old red label silver Spidey #1 9.8 and Crisis #1 9.6. I need to get rid of those with a quickness.

Luckily I didn't pay much on them. At that time I was just curious about CGC's grading and wanted to check it out for cheap. Got a nice cheap Avengers 12 6.0 out of grading curiousity too.

Besides population, I have to consider if the book is a key or not. If it is a key, there is a greater chance of it being widely graded, but also a better chance of still being able to sell it rather than a non-key book (not always the case though).

Also, I'd consider how tough it is to get a high grade on a particular book. For instance, I'd be willing to pay more for a ASM #28 or #31 in high grade than I would another old Spidey with a similar guide value because time and wear tends to be rough on those black and red covers.

On current books..... Well, I don't really buy them slabbed. Just doesn't make much sense to me aside from preserving the book, but then I'd have to pay to get it re-slabbed every 7 years to preserve it. I just can't understand spending the extra money for the 9.8 number on CURRENT books (I understand ASM #36 and similar books with tough covers). Can anyone shed some light on this for me? Am I missing something?

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 5:44 pm

400yrs wrote: I'd be willing to pay more for a ASM #28 or #31 in high grade than I would another old Spidey with a similar guide value because time and wear tends to be rough on those black and red covers.

I REALLY think Spidey #31 is one of the best covers of the run.

smoothpie · Post by **smoothpie** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 5:53 pm

So is there no baseline to work from? I would think it possible that you could be in a position to consider buying a CGC book with no way to check its census numbers.

Let's say you see a 9.6 Spidey #33 at a convention and didn't know its population. It would still seem like a pretty darn nice book, and you'd have to consider the price in some relation to its guide value.

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 5:59 pm

smoothpie wrote:So is there no baseline to work from? I would think it possible that you could be in a position to consider buying a CGC book with no way to check its census numbers.

Let's say you see a 9.6 Spidey #33 at a convention and didn't know its population. It would still seem like a pretty darn nice book, and you'd have to consider the price in some relation to its guide value.

It's just like being at a con and not being able to carry around your Overstreet. You just have to (A) have a head for numbers; or (B) carry around the books you REALLY want with a census printout; or (C) not care.

Besides...that's why they invented laptops. I STILL can't believe there's only been ONE X-O database at 9.8 sold for $20.

400yrs · Post by **400yrs** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 6:02 pm

smoothpie wrote:So is there no baseline to work from? I would think it possible that you could be in a position to consider buying a CGC book with no way to check its census numbers.

Let's say you see a 9.6 Spidey #33 at a convention and didn't know its population. It would still seem like a pretty darn nice book, and you'd have to consider the price in some relation to its guide value.

For me a Spidey #33 CGC'd at 9.6 wouldn't exactly be an impulse buy. I'd probably at least find a computer and check the numbers. If for no other reason I'd do it just to give myself time to think what a reasonable or fair price would be, because it would be substantial for me.

smoothpie · Post by **smoothpie** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 7:28 pm

ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:I REALLY think Spidey #31 is one of the best covers of the run.

I'm with you there - that's a great cover.

First appearance of Gwen and Harry too - I was always surprised that it was priced the same as the rest of the 30's (with the exception of #39) for a long time.

smoothpie · Post by **smoothpie** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 7:46 pm

ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:I'll pay $150 for a 9.8 Batman #428...because there are only 2 currently, and none higher (and not likely to be more.)

Really? Wouldn't there have been a couple hundred thousand of these printed? I would think there could be plenty more out there.... it's only $18 in the guide. I wouldn't rush to grade it.

smoothpie · Post by **smoothpie** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 7:55 pm

400yrs wrote:On current books..... Well, I don't really buy them slabbed. Just doesn't make much sense to me aside from preserving the book, but then I'd have to pay to get it re-slabbed every 7 years to preserve it. I just can't understand spending the extra money for the 9.8 number on CURRENT books (I understand ASM #36 and similar books with tough covers). Can anyone shed some light on this for me? Am I missing something?

Even ASM #36 is a little baffling. Not sure what they sell for, but there's 871 9.6s; 450 9.8s. That's quite a few to go around.

ryostar · Post by **ryostar** » Sat Jan 22, 2005 12:29 am

Nothing better than smooth pie....

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Sat Jan 22, 2005 12:33 am

smoothpie wrote:
ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:I'll pay $150 for a 9.8 Batman #428...because there are only 2 currently, and none higher (and not likely to be more.)
Really? Wouldn't there have been a couple hundred thousand of these printed? I would think there could be plenty more out there.... it's only $18 in the guide. I wouldn't rush to grade it.

1. It's a black cover. While it's a misnomer that black covers ARE more worn than others, it IS true that they SHOW more wear, if it's there. Thus, uberhighgrade black covers are 'rarer' than others.

2. It was the hottest book of the entire 1980's, with the possible exception of Turtles #1.

3. There are only TWO 9.8 copies, making it the rarest Death in the Family by FAR.

4. A copy sold a few weeks ago for well over $300, astonishing even me. Population, population, population.

5. There were probably no more than 150,000 sold when all was said and done. Batman sold dismally throughout the entire 80's, with few exceptions. It wasn't until 1989 that Batman soared....

A 50 cent book, if it's the only one in 9.8, is suddenly worth a lot. I will not be surprised when it is discovered (as has been happening already) that there are SEVERAL 'otherwise common as hell crap books' that become major keys based SOLELY on surviving pop in uberhigh grade.

Example: 1884S Morgan Dollar. Common as HELL...in circulated grades. $10 in VF, same as 1883S or 1885S.

Discovered in the 1960's (WAYYY before grading) that they were SCARCE as hen's teeth in UNcirculated. Min price for an MS60 (the equivalent of 9.0)? $1000. MS60 for 1883S is about $15.

And it soars from there. There's an MS68 (the equiv of a 9.9) that would probably sell for well over $1 million at this point.

Probably less than 1,000 pieces TOTAL in Uncirc, when MOST OTHER Morgans are Uncirc.

Same with comics...it could be discovered that, for example, DP7 #3 is non-existant in grades above 8.5. There could be ONE copy in 9.8, and none more over 8.5. Now...if it were made generally known that this was the case, THAT ONE DP7 #3 would sell for many multiples of it's brethren, simply because it's so rare in ubergrade.

So, yeah, there's a whole new subset of collectors out there looking only for the very best...whether it be the Allentown Detective #29 in 9.6 (my god!) or Strawberry Shortcake #3 in 9.8.

oldjello · Post by **oldjello** » Thu Jan 27, 2005 9:29 pm

I'm raiding my sister's closet for Strawberry Shortcake #1 and 2!

smoothpie · Post by **smoothpie** » Thu Jan 27, 2005 9:46 pm

ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:I'll pay $150 for a 9.8 Batman #428...because there are only 2 currently, and none higher (and not likely to be more.)

Hey, a 3rd showed up in the census. Is that yours?

smoothpie · Post by **smoothpie** » Thu Jan 27, 2005 9:48 pm

oldjello wrote:I'm raiding my sister's closet for Strawberry Shortcake #1 and 2!

Go for that set of 9.8 Star Comics!

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Fri Jan 28, 2005 2:40 pm

smoothpie wrote:
ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:I'll pay $150 for a 9.8 Batman #428...because there are only 2 currently, and none higher (and not likely to be more.)
Hey, a 3rd showed up in the census. Is that yours?

I wish.