CGC Harbinger #1 $2550 what does it mean for Valiant?

nutflush76 · Post by **nutflush76** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 8:46 pm

This may or may not have been addressed already but I did not see it.

As you all may or may not knoww, a CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 sold last night for the insane amount of $2550.00

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... :IT&ih=017

I just had to look again to make sure I wasn't imagining things.

So, it got me to thinking. What does this mean for Valiant collectors?

Does this mean that the prices of normal back issues are going to start hitting their early 90's levels?

Are we gonna see a ton of new submissions to CGC for all pre-unity issues?

Or, is this just a case of good timing, with the announcement of the movie, the fact that Valiant will be putting out new books by the end of the year, and the fact that it has been over a year since the last 9.8 was sold on eBay?

Also, does this mean that we are going to see a return of the speculators that helped add to Valiant's, and almost the entire comic market's, demise?

My opinion, we will see more CGC 9.8's out there than there are now in the near future. I have seen plenty of people on this board swear up and down that every 9.8 that is gonna be found already has and I say that they couldn't be more wrong.

Think about this for a second. Harby #1 had a print run of about 48,000 copies. To date, 298 copies have been graded by CGC. 13 of them have received a grade of 9.8 (I don't know when the new book came up but there were only 12 the other day. It appears the new book must have been autographed because it received a "qualified" grade. )
http://www.cgccomics.com/census/grades_ ... ate=1%2F92

The total # of submissons is 006208333333% of the overall print run of Harby #1. If you want to theoretically say another 50 copies have been thrown out as a result of pre-screens you still don't even reach 1% of the whole run.

There are more 9.8's out there manufacturing flaw or not.

Anyway, I'm interested to see what you guys have to say about this.

I can tell you one thing is for sure. There is a lot of excitement about Valiant right now and it is definitely a good time to be a Valiant fan!

JustCallMeAric · Post by **JustCallMeAric** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 8:54 pm

I think its good but a high price. Once talk about the movie cools down I think excitement will go down for a while.

Chiclo · Post by **Chiclo** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 9:08 pm

The buyer is one of our own.

Gavster, I think.

He talks about it in another thread.

viewtopic.php?t=20605

nutflush76 · Post by **nutflush76** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 9:49 pm

Chiclo wrote:The buyer is one of our own.

Gavster, I think.

He talks about it in another thread.

viewtopic.php?t=20605

I'm glad it went to someone who is part of this forum and not some speculator crazy about the movie hype!

It does make me want to scoop up every raw copy of Harbinger #1 that I see at the San Diego Comic Con this summer!

betterthanezra · Post by **betterthanezra** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 10:03 pm

nutflush76 wrote:
Chiclo wrote:The buyer is one of our own.

Gavster, I think.

He talks about it in another thread.

viewtopic.php?t=20605
I'm glad it went to someone who is part of this forum and not some speculator crazy about the movie hype!

It does make me want to scoop up every raw copy of Harbinger #1 that I see at the San Diego Comic Con this summer!

What copies I'll get them all before you...

-Brian

Elveen · Post by **Elveen** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 10:04 pm

nutflush76 wrote:
Chiclo wrote:The buyer is one of our own.

Gavster, I think.

He talks about it in another thread.

viewtopic.php?t=20605
I'm glad it went to someone who is part of this forum and not some speculator crazy about the movie hype!

It does make me want to scoop up every raw copy of Harbinger #1 that I see at the San Diego Comic Con this summer!

Good luck. I have a feeling that you will not be alone.

But the prices will be crazy.

Daniel Jackson · Post by **Daniel Jackson** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 10:38 pm

Elveen wrote:
nutflush76 wrote:
Chiclo wrote:The buyer is one of our own.

Gavster, I think.

He talks about it in another thread.

viewtopic.php?t=20605
I'm glad it went to someone who is part of this forum and not some speculator crazy about the movie hype!

It does make me want to scoop up every raw copy of Harbinger #1 that I see at the San Diego Comic Con this summer!
Good luck. I have a feeling that you will not be alone.

But the prices will be crazy.

For sure.

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 10:52 pm

nutflush76 wrote:This may or may not have been addressed already but I did not see it.

As you all may or may not knoww, a CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 sold last night for the insane amount of $2550.00

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... :IT&ih=017

I just had to look again to make sure I wasn't imagining things.

So, it got me to thinking. What does this mean for Valiant collectors?

Does this mean that the prices of normal back issues are going to start hitting their early 90's levels?

ONLY if people don't do their own research. We DO NOT have anywhere NEAR the numbers of buyers we did in 1991/1992/1993.

"But, pre-unity has now been hoarded in collections for 10+ years, so they're bound to be hard to find, right?"

Look at the numbers. I have 70-75 odd Harby #1s. Apparently, there are people (not on the board) with a long box or two of Harby #1. That's 250 per long box.

How many of the rest of you have more than 20 copies?

There were 48,000 copies printed. Less than 10% were cut up for coupons (we surmise)....that's 40,000 copies (rounded down) available.

Say, 10% more damaged beyond collectability, destroyed, mangled, thrown away, etc.

We're down to 35,000 copies.

How many copies are accounted for by the members of this board....?

1000?

2000?

Where, then, are the rest...?

(that's a rhetorical question....they'll come RUNNING out of hiding the second these prices become a pattern.)

There just aren't the sheer NUMBER of people wanting the book....YET...to justify "1993 prices"....(which, by the way, are a hell of a lot higher now, adjusted for inflation.)

And ALWAYS keep this in mind when I give you my analysis...I am HEAVILY INVESTED in the idea that Harby #1 should be an expensive book. I WANT the book to be valuable. But I DON'T want the book to be "valuable this week, worthless next."

Are we gonna see a ton of new submissions to CGC for all pre-unity issues?

No. We're gonna see a ton of new submissions for Harbinger #1.

Or, is this just a case of good timing, with the announcement of the movie, the fact that Valiant will be putting out new books by the end of the year, and the fact that it has been over a year since the last 9.8 was sold on eBay?

Something that is VERY, VERY important to remember: the auction price (as we already know) was NOT an "average price." The high bidder WANTED the book, and did just about anything to GET it. The SECOND high bidder ALSO did the same thing. We don't see the third high bidder past the $1500+ mark. That's very significant.

We see FOUR bidders at the $1500 mark, which means $1500 is probably what Harby #1 is "now worth."

Also, does this mean that we are going to see a return of the speculators that helped add to Valiant's, and almost the entire comic market's, demise?

Hopefully not, and we'll need roughly four-five TIMES the buyers we have now (an estimated 100-200,000 individual comic buyers) for the speculation to kick in....

And...something else that's very important to remember: Valiants, especially pre-unitys, are now old enough, and disbursed enough, that real speculation isn't possible the way it was back then. Back then, people who were smart were able to go just about anywhere and pick up the books....and from just about any dealer nationwide (this is every book up to and through Unity....and then rolled over after Unity for about a year.)

Now, that's not possible. Collections have to be pieced together one copy at a time, just like Silver Age Marvel had to in the 1980's.

On the flipside, the existence of eBay will mitigate that, as individuals will have an outlet to sell without relying on advertising or selling to stores. Large runs will be available, but grading will be questionable.

My opinion, we will see more CGC 9.8's out there than there are now in the near future.

How many more?

I predict no more than 6-8, tops. I think the reality will be 2-3.

The book simply doesn't exist in 9.8.

I have seen plenty of people on this board swear up and down that every 9.8 that is gonna be found already has and I say that they couldn't be more wrong.

I'm one of the ones that have never said that. I HAVE said that it's not LIKELY that more will be found, knowing what we know about these books. This isn't a case where the book has been "too cheap to slab." That's never been the case.

And when a book isn't too cheap to slab, and a couple hundred copies get slabbed, with who knows how many being pre-screened out, then we know that the book is genuinely rare in those grades.

Batman #427.

Batman #428.

Solar #10.

Harbinger #1.

Think about this for a second. Harby #1 had a print run of about 48,000 copies. To date, 298 copies have been graded by CGC. 13 of them have received a grade of 9.8 (I don't know when the new book came up but there were only 12 the other day. It appears the new book must have been autographed because it received a "qualified" grade. )

That book sold a couple months ago. It was qualified because it had the coupon cut out. It's been on the census for several weeks, if not months.

How sad is that? The coupon cut out of a book that otherwise managed to survive all this time in 9.8 condition.

That's just SAD.

http://www.cgccomics.com/census/grades_ ... ate=1%2F92

The total # of submissons is 006208333333% of the overall print run of Harby #1.

You're missing a period, there.

The total number of SLABBED copies is a little more than 1/2 of 1% (.056) of the total print run. The total number of 9.8 copies is a little less than 2/100ths of a percent (.0002) of the print run.

If you want to theoretically say another 50 copies have been thrown out as a result of pre-screens you still don't even reach 1% of the whole run.

Ohhhhhhh no....no no no no.....a LOT more than 50 copies have been pre-screened out, my friend.

A LOT more.

There are more 9.8's out there manufacturing flaw or not.

Statistically, you are correct. Your conclusions, however, aren't supported by the information at hand. Will we see more? Naturally. Will we see the census double, or triple?

Statistically, it's not probable.

Possible, but not probable.

Anyway, I'm interested to see what you guys have to say about this.

I can tell you one thing is for sure. There is a lot of excitement about Valiant right now and it is definitely a good time to be a Valiant fan!

Something else that is VERY important to remember: perspective is EVERYTHING. WE, the people who visit this message board regularly, have a skewed perspective about "the buzz surrounding Valiant" because we SEE it every DAY.

How often is Valiant mentioned elsewhere?

If you asked around, how many people in the comic world think about Valiant once a day? Once a week? Once a month? Never?

Keep all that in mind. It's important to know.

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 10:54 pm

nutflush76 wrote:
Chiclo wrote:The buyer is one of our own.

Gavster, I think.

He talks about it in another thread.

viewtopic.php?t=20605
I'm glad it went to someone who is part of this forum and not some speculator crazy about the movie hype!

It does make me want to scoop up every raw copy of Harbinger #1 that I see at the San Diego Comic Con this summer!

Well, two things:

1. Hopefully, news of "high prices" will make people want to pull copies out of storage.

2. Hopefully, those copies won't be priced high.

What are you willing to pay for raw copies that aren't 9.8 candidates...?

Smashey · Post by **Smashey** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 10:58 pm

What are you willing to pay for raw copies that aren't 9.8 candidates

30 bucks. Guess I wont be hoarding harbys

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:17 pm

Smashey wrote:
What are you willing to pay for raw copies that aren't 9.8 candidates
30 bucks. Guess I wont be hoarding harbys

Probably not. I wish I'd bought more, but hey....I did ok for myself.

Smashey · Post by **Smashey** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:25 pm

If i was gonna spend much more than $30 for a raw, I would just seek a 9.6 cgc. Chances are any raw you buy is going to be 9.4 or worse. I dont see the point in paying 50 bucks for a 9.2 raw book, if that.

Elveen · Post by **Elveen** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:34 pm

ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote: I have 70-75 odd Harby #1s. Apparently, there are people (not on the board) with a long box or two of Harby #1. That's 250 per long box.

How many of the rest of you have more than 20 copies?

I believe I have 3, two with coups (counting svair's project) and one w/out coup.

I know where one is at an LCS that has no possibility of being sold... it is in a box, burried, not availible to the public (the guy has not priced it yet, but has promised me first crack at it. But I am not sure when that is going to be. This guy also told me he has EVERY comic from 1986-1996 in a box, [he had his workers drop one of every comic he got into his store for about 10 yrs.] he said he would also sell me them, maybe, just maybe a 9.8?)

I know of at least one more, maybe two more..... but even if I get a good price..... (Which would be what?) I am not sure if I can afford it.

But I might have to try.

Unfortunately, my hoards are not Harby #1s.

superman-prime · Post by **superman-prime** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:45 pm

I have a total of 3 harby 1s feel kinda sad
but my few hoard books are rai 0 solar 10 and unity 0

nutflush76 · Post by **nutflush76** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:58 pm

ZephyrWasHOT!!,

I really do think that there are at least another 12 Harby#1 9.8's out there.

You talk about people with longboxes of Harby #1's. You don't think that there are a bunch of 9.8's out there in those boxes?

My comment about the speculators wasn't so much geared towards the back issues. All of your points to that effect I totally agree with. I was talking about the new books that come out.

Keep in mind that 6% of the slabbed copies of Harby #1 have been graded 9.8. I will give you that more than 50 copies of the book have probably been rejected as pre-screens but not much more. Keep in mind that in order to pre-screen you need to send in 50 books. That would limit most pre-screen submissions to dealers who should have somewhat of an idea of what they are submitting and the book is valuable enough in 9.4-9.6 that they don't need to be too accurate to get a book to grade out to where they can profit from it.

Now I'll be generous and say another 298 books have been rejected for pre-screening. That means that 3% of the books submitted have graded out at 9.8.

Now, in the following weeks I will go out on a limb and say that there will be 100-150 new submissions to CGC for this book, assuming that these numbers hold up then we could see another 3-5 9.8s come out of those.

Now, I'm not trying to say that this isn't a rare book. It definitely is. I'm just trying to say that 13 9.8 copies is kind of misleading as far as how scarce the book is.

Think about this:

3% of 45000 is 1350. There probably aren't that many 9.8 Harby #1s out there but that tells me that statistically there are a lot more than 13 9.8 grade copies out there.

As far as the qualified book not being there before, I must have just missed it. But there were only 12 9.8's on the population report last time I checked!

Also, keep in mind that this is a pretty significant modern age sale. I can't think of another modern age book that has sold for this much even in 10.0! (I could be wrong, but I just don't remember) It's sale is going to be picked up by all of the Wizards and CBGs of the world. I'm sure that it's sale will probably even be mentioned in next year's overstreet! that is gonna bring a LOT of attention to Valiant in the coming months!

nutflush76 · Post by **nutflush76** » Tue Apr 01, 2008 12:00 am

superman-prime wrote:I have a total of 3 harby 1s feel kinda sad
but my few hoard books are rai 0 solar 10 and unity 0

I have quite a few Rai #0s myself. I just LOVE that cover!

Too bad I paid $30 each for two of them back in the day.

superman-prime · Post by **superman-prime** » Tue Apr 01, 2008 12:01 am

im upwards of 70 ish on rai 0

Daniel Jackson · Post by **Daniel Jackson** » Tue Apr 01, 2008 12:02 am

superman-prime wrote:im upwards of 70 ish on rai 0

Please tell me that was for a graded copy.....

nutflush76 · Post by **nutflush76** » Tue Apr 01, 2008 12:03 am

Oh and just for kicks:

.5% of 45000 is 225

Not trying to beat this into the ground just trying to support my point!

nutflush76 · Post by **nutflush76** » Tue Apr 01, 2008 12:04 am

superman-prime wrote:im upwards of 70 ish on rai 0

Well, I've got about 10 of them which is a hoard for me!

Chiclo · Post by **Chiclo** » Tue Apr 01, 2008 12:04 am

Daniel Jackson wrote:
superman-prime wrote:im upwards of 70 ish on rai 0
Please tell me that was for a graded copy.....

I think he is saying he has more than 70 copies of Rai 0.

superman-prime · Post by **superman-prime** » Tue Apr 01, 2008 12:06 am

Ya i have 70 ish copies of rai 0 so far, I think i paid 3 for a few thats the most so far

Daniel Jackson · Post by **Daniel Jackson** » Tue Apr 01, 2008 12:11 am

Chiclo wrote:
Daniel Jackson wrote:
superman-prime wrote:im upwards of 70 ish on rai 0
Please tell me that was for a graded copy.....
I think he is saying he has more than 70 copies of Rai 0.

Whew....he had worried there for a minute.

superman-prime · Post by **superman-prime** » Tue Apr 01, 2008 12:15 am

Id pay 70 for a 10.0

xodacia81 · Post by **xodacia81** » Tue Apr 01, 2008 12:18 am

IF I had all 5 or 6 copies of Magnus # 1-all with the coupon, too, believe it or not-or Unity 2K # 1 which I've found over the last year, then that would be my hoard. As it stands...nothing this cool sits in my collection. YET.

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CGC Harbinger #1 $2550 what does it mean for Valiant?

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