9.9... dare I say 10.0....!?

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:14 pm

Jrdawg wrote:Wish I could change the title of this topic to "9.6...dare I say 9.8!??"

You can.

Just edit the original post.

Jrdawg · Post by **Jrdawg** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:16 pm

Lol...no. I'll stand by my overconfidence!

wallywest · Post by **wallywest** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:25 pm

Jrdawg wrote:Lol...no. I'll stand by my overconfidence!

How admirable!

whovianone · Post by **whovianone** » Thu Jan 24, 2008 6:55 am

wallywest wrote:
Jrdawg wrote:Lol...no. I'll stand by my overconfidence!

How admirable!

Probably better to remind yourself of a lesson learned.

maraxusofkeld · Post by **maraxusofkeld** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 10:40 pm

You could do that pre-grade option when they give you a preliminary decision on the grade. I have books that look like 9.8's and only came back as 9.4's, I figured this to something on the inside of the books. I'm not sure but they might take into account errors in the word bubbles where words are not completely clear, etc.

siren3-4 · Post by **siren3-4** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 8:34 am

ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:
myron wrote:
ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:
Jason4u0075 wrote:Well, I posted because I'm pretty AR about grading my own books
Huh? I mean, I can figure out through context, but what does "AR" stand for....?
you have GOT to be kidding...
I read that and thought "he's pretty Arkansas about his grading? Huh?"

Sorry . . late to the party and I thought this was funny . . .

So, did the book get sent out or what ???

Jrdawg · Post by **Jrdawg** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 6:16 pm

Jrdawg wrote:Just got the books back from that order.

Plat= 9.6 (oh well, I was planning to keep it anyways)

A&A 0 Gold= 9.6

EW#1 Gold= 9.8 woot! I may sell this one cuz I only wanted a 9.6

Only bummer I got was Xmen Annual 11, which got a 9.4. I need a 9.6 if anyone has a nice copy.

Yup.

Smashey · Post by **Smashey** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 10:03 pm

EW#1 Gold= 9.8 woot! I may sell this one cuz I only wanted a 9.6

You arent the first person i have seen say this. Why would you prefer a 9.6 over a 9.8?

Jrdawg · Post by **Jrdawg** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 10:05 pm

There is usually a very large jump from a 9.6 to a 9.8 in pricing. Generally, I don't think its worth the price.

imagesowner2 · Post by **imagesowner2** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 10:28 pm

I got a book back from CGC last month (an Iron Man) that was graded 9.8. I was very happy about the grade but after close inspection of the book I noticed that the cver was actually pulled from the top staple. I noticed it because the interior of the book was actually protruding out of the cover on top by about 1/8 of an inch. I called CGC to ask them about this and was told it probably happened while it was being encased. but "not to worry" because it had already been graded and they would stand by the grade even with the problem. I guess what I am getting at is this.. How many books are graded but are not accurate due to damage caused by CGC?

Smashey · Post by **Smashey** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 10:34 pm

I called CGC to ask them about this and was told it probably happened while it was being encased. but "not to worry" because it had already been graded and they would stand by the grade even with the problem. I guess what I am getting at is this.. How many books are graded but are not accurate due to damage caused by CGC?

Brings me back to my original thinking, along with many other posts on this thread.

imagesowner2 · Post by **imagesowner2** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 11:19 pm

Smashey wrote:
I called CGC to ask them about this and was told it probably happened while it was being encased. but "not to worry" because it had already been graded and they would stand by the grade even with the problem. I guess what I am getting at is this.. How many books are graded but are not accurate due to damage caused by CGC?
Brings me back to my original thinking, along with many other posts on this thread.

Which was?

Smashey · Post by **Smashey** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 11:25 pm

That cgc is an overhyped false blanket of security. If i were to have paid big money for a 9.8 cear or eb or something, and it had the same problem, i would be very very upset.

But cgc says its a 9.8 so....

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Mon Feb 18, 2008 2:32 am

Smashey wrote:That cgc is an overhyped false blanket of security. If i were to have paid big money for a 9.8 cear or eb or something, and it had the same problem, i would be very very upset.

But cgc says its a 9.8 so....

You're ignoring the fact that the vast, vast majority of CGC graded books are consistently and accurately graded.

Yes, there are errors. Yes, there are mistakes. Yes, there have been attempts to "sweep things under the rug."

But a very loud group of people has made it their personal mission to scream loudly when these things are brought to public attention, so that CGC doesn't get complacent.

If you paid $$$ for a 9.8 CEAR or whatever, and it had the same problem, the answer is simple: treat it as if it was overgraded (because it was) and pursue a refund from the seller.

CGC is not a FALSE blanket of security, and to state that means you don't *really* understand CGC and its place in the market. But overhyped? Sure, you can make that claim.

And if CGC, to you, is nothing but overhyped nonsense, the answer is REALLLLLY simple: don't buy them.

I have...eh...maybe 30-40 slabs? Haven't counted.

That's it.

Out a collection of 10s of thousands of books, only 30-40 of them are slabbed. Why? Not because I don't believe in CGC, but because I don't believe the market. I don't believe the market has really ever "settled" to where it should be, in relation to how rare books truly are in certain grades.

Many, many of the CGC books I've bought "just to have"....maybe as many as HALF of them....are now worth LESS than what I paid for them.

Bought a Magneto Gold 9.6 for $85 shipped. One sold a week or so ago for $42 +S&H.

Paid $25 or so for a 9.6 Amazing Spidey #324. Worth $25? Not even close.

Paid $20 for a Dawn....as Deep As variant....9.6.

Surely not worth that, now.

Paid $50 for a Batman #104, Qualified 4.5.

I couldn't get $25 for that book now.

Imagine....IMAGINE...if I had paid "the big money" and had HUNDREDS, or even THOUSANDS of CGC books?

I would have lost everything.

So, I don't blame you for not wanting to pay huge prices for CGC assurances.....but that doesn't mean CGC's assurances are meaningless.

Jrdawg · Post by **Jrdawg** » Wed Feb 20, 2008 9:44 pm

I decided to resubmit this book. I personally had 10 slabbed copies @ 9.6 and seen a few others as well and they don't even come close to this gem. I haven't ever done this before though. After I open the case, is there something inside the book I need to remove?

myron · Post by **myron** » Wed Feb 20, 2008 10:14 pm

Jrdawg wrote:I decided to resubmit this book. I personally had 10 slabbed copies @ 9.6 and seen a few others as well and they don't even come close to this gem. I haven't ever done this before though. After I open the case, is there something inside the book I need to remove?

maybe the acid paper...

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Wed Feb 20, 2008 10:19 pm

Jrdawg wrote:I decided to resubmit this book

You wouldn't be the first, and you won't be the last. Resubs are the name of the game...

Ricomortis · Post by **Ricomortis** » Wed Feb 20, 2008 11:04 pm

ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:
Jrdawg wrote:I decided to resubmit this book
You wouldn't be the first, and you won't be the last. Resubs are the name of the game...

Thats the thing... it also skews(sp) the census. For instance, say my harby 9.6 is resubed and got a 9.8. Now one copy was a 9.8 but there is one on the census more at 9.6 that isn't.

I think it could make it seem that there are more high grade copies of books than really have been graded.

Rico

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Thu Feb 21, 2008 12:34 am

Ricomortis wrote:
ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:
Jrdawg wrote:I decided to resubmit this book
You wouldn't be the first, and you won't be the last. Resubs are the name of the game...
Thats the thing... it also skews(sp) the census. For instance, say my harby 9.6 is resubed and got a 9.8. Now one copy was a 9.8 but there is one on the census more at 9.6 that isn't.

I think it could make it seem that there are more high grade copies of books than really have been graded.

Rico

Skewed census numbers, sadly, are the downside of the resub game.

It is unavoidable, however. CGC isn't about to start removing numbers from the census, for huge liability reasons, and they really can't to begin with.

Obviously, some very rare books can be told by their diagnostics. There are a few diagnosticians (RedHook on the CGC boards, for example) who are EXCELLENT with comics.

But that means the comics are going to have to have scannable diagnostics to begin with.

Easy for 9.0 and lower, and 1980 and before....not so easy the other way around.

In coins, where resubs have been going on for 20 years, there are very few issues that are nailed down to "we know exactly how many there are, what condition they're in, and (mostly) who has them"

We're talking maybe coins with 15 or less examples known.

And even THOSE have resubs, but because they're so low in population, the resubs can be tracked. But there are examples even of coins with populations as low as THREE where it's unknown if one example was cross subbed between PCGS and NGC, especially if the grading was done in the late 80's/early 90's.

It very much will make it seem like there are more high grade copies than there really are....and people will have to take that into account.

There are lots of coins where, for example, we know the mintage...and the population among PCGS and NGC COMBINED is actually HIGHER than the known mintage! This happens a lot, especially with proof coins of the late 19th and early 20th century.

So...it is inevitable, and likely has already happened. Are there really 45 unique copies of Batman #227 out there in 9.0 or higher slabs? Or have the same books been submitted several times, and there's really only, say, 20 unique copies in slabs (which may explain the hysteria on the price)?

We'll never know until and if we get physical inventories of each book.

The census numbers, as the years go by, should be looked at as less and less reliable in absolute terms, and more of an "indicator" of what really exists.

Jrdawg · Post by **Jrdawg** » Thu Feb 21, 2008 6:41 am

myron wrote:maybe the acid paper...

Do you know if they put one sheet in the back and one in the front?

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Thu Feb 21, 2008 3:36 pm

Jrdawg wrote:
myron wrote:maybe the acid paper...
Do you know if they put one sheet in the back and one in the front?

Yes.

greg · Post by **greg** » Thu Feb 21, 2008 4:34 pm

ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:The census numbers, as the years go by, should be looked at as less and less reliable in absolute terms, and more of an "indicator" of what really exists.

The interesting thing about census numbers, however, is that all errors are one-sided.

That is, if the census says that there are 40 copies of Batman #227 in 9.0 or higher slabs,
then it means there might be 40, 39, 35, or 20, but there aren't 41.

If you're worried about census errors in general, it should be comforting to know
that the slabbed book you own (or are thinking of purchasing) is one of "at most" X copies.

It's just like a "limited edition"... limited to Batman #227 limited to 40 slabs at 9.0 or higher.
(Could be 39... could be just 1 submitted 40 times.)

The only way the census grows is that either another copy is graded,
or one of the same copies is graded again. Either way, your copy
is still one of "at most" X+1 copies graded.

I'm more concerned when I know a book has "at least" 1,000,000 copies.
It's comforting to know a book has "at most" 40.

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Thu Feb 21, 2008 4:45 pm

greg wrote:
ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:The census numbers, as the years go by, should be looked at as less and less reliable in absolute terms, and more of an "indicator" of what really exists.
The interesting thing about census numbers, however, is that all errors are one-sided.

That is, if the census says that there are 40 copies of Batman #227 in 9.0 or higher slabs,
then it means there might be 40, 39, 35, or 20, but there aren't 41.

That is correct.

If you're worried about census errors

They're not really "errors", per se, but rather "discrepancies." "Error" implies that someone made a mistake, which could confuse some people, while "discrepancy" acknowledges a difference but doesn't imply "someone goofed." It's blame neutral.

in general, it should be comforting to know
that the slabbed book you own (or are thinking of purchasing) is one of "at most" X copies.

It's just like a "limited edition"... limited to Batman #227 limited to 40 slabs at 9.0 or higher.
(Could be 39... could be just 1 submitted 40 times.)

The only way the census grows is that either another copy is graded,
or one of the same copies is graded again. Either way, your copy
is still one of "at most" X+1 copies graded.

I'm more concerned when I know a book has "at least" 1,000,000 copies.
It's comforting to know a book has "at most" 40.

The problem with that, however, is if ONE of the books is slabbed 10 more times, the census is going to show FIFTY, where the absolute number has remained static.

If 10 of the "absolute 40" (a number we'll probably never know, unless we can assemble all the books in one place or do extensive diagnostic research on each one) are resubmitted another, say, 40 times amongst the 10 already on the census (not unheard of in coins, though very rare), then the census will show 80 copies.....even though the absolute number will not have changed....and you will get a "false census" reading.

This could conceivably happen ad infinitum, and has IN FACT happened in coins, especially coins in the "50-100 examples known" range, where it's far more difficult to get a real handle on how many unique examples are out there...where a wealthy and dedicated collector(s) decided to try to manipulate the market by re-subbing and cross grading examples that he owned....in an attempt to inflate the census, and thereby drive prices DOWN...so he can buy them at a leveraged discount.

"Well, heck, the census shows that 140 examples have been graded, so CLEARLY there must be more of them out there than we thought, even taking resubs into account. I can't offer more than $X thousand dollars."

How soon before someone tries this with comics....?

Someone who lives in Sarasota, or thereabouts, could conceivably take a rare book in high grade....like Harby #1, for example....buy 2-3 copies of it....resub them over and over....for $13 each....and if he were to even DOUBLE the census numbers @ 9.8....imagine the impact that would have on the remaining copies! Even the times when they could come back 9.6 would increase the absolute numbers for Harby #1 in high grade.

If someone saw a census doubling, would they be more willing to sell for a discount?

You bet.

It would be all about perception, at that point.

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Thu Feb 21, 2008 4:53 pm

Think about it this way....when there were 12 copies of Magnus #1 in 9.8 on the census, it was a $300 book.

Now that there are well over 100, it's now a $50 book.

Now, I realize that the CGC census is really too young for hardcore manipulation....but the potential DOES exist.

greg · Post by **greg** » Thu Feb 21, 2008 5:06 pm

ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:Think about it this way....when there were 12 copies of Magnus #1 in 9.8 on the census, it was a $300 book.

Now that there are well over 100, it's now a $50 book.

Now, I realize that the CGC census is really too young for hardcore manipulation....but the potential DOES exist.

I agree. Even books which appear "plentiful" on the census today
in certain grades may already belong to only one or two collectors.