Overlooked Valiant gems?

[greg]

Let's say there's a Valiant book from 2012-present that had covers A, B, C, and a 1:20 variant. Let's also say that according to Comichron.com, the issue sold under 6,000 copies.

Odds are that the 1:20 variant is probably worth about $20, and maybe more if collectors are having trouble finding it.
Odds are that the covers A, B, and C are still around $3.99, since retailers don't have much reason to ask for more.

Let's say 60% of orders are for Cover A because retailers don't even bother with the other covers. Let's say 20% of orders are for Cover A and B because retailers just get a couple covers for the shelves. That leaves 20% of orders for Cover A, B, and C. The 1:20 variants are spread across these orders for A, A-B, or A-B-C.

This is all hypothetical, but if you do this hypothetical math...

The 1:20 variant would be about 300 copies of the 6,000.
That leaves 5,700 copies for A, B, and C.

If 60% are A, 20% are A-B, and 20% are A-B-C, then that's 60+20+20 for A, 20+20 for B, and 20 for C.
So, 100 for A, 40 for B, and 20 for C... and those three add up to 160.
A is 100/160 or 62.5%.
B is 40/160 or 25%.
C is 20/160 or 12.5%.

5,700 copies... A = 3,560 copies, B = 1,425 copies, C = 715 copies

It's still all hypothetical, but there's a comic that was protected since the moment it arrived, the 1:20 variant that costs $20+ for 300 (or more) copies.
There's another comic that hasn't been a big deal at all, possibly many were damaged, the Cover C that costs $4 for 715 (plus or minus) copies.

Long term, Cover C might be the bigger winner. If both books are losers, then it's a loss of $4 vs a loss of $20+.

Win-win for Cover C?

[greg]

This scenario varies for other books, A, B, C, D, 1:20, 1:50, etc., but the general idea is that the "last regular price variant" before the ratio incentives start for lower sales (not Unity #1) Valiant books could be an overlooked, but very hard to find in high grade, book still available at the $3.99 price.

[myron]

geeking out on the stats of it....nice work Greg!

[onearmedwampa3000]

He blinded me with science!

Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk

[mkb28]

My head hurts when I try to do math.

[greg]

My head hurts when I try to do math.

Math is the language of dreams.

[Jrosen]

While the "C" cover may be scarcer than the "A" cover, it doesn't seem to hold its value anywhere near as much as the A cover. A quick look at mycomicbooks.com, lists the "C" covers for about 30% less than the "A" cover.

[greg]

While the "C" cover may be scarcer than the "A" cover, it doesn't seem to hold its value anywhere near as much as the A cover. A quick look at mycomicbooks.com, lists the "C" covers for about 30% less than the "A" cover.

That seems to make the case that not only are C covers overlooked, they're often even cheaper than $3.99.

[depluto]

I've been thinking this way for a while. I've always had my pull list set up so I get two covers of everything, starting with the higher letters (if there are three regular cover variants, I want B and C; if there are four I want C and D). My LCS doesn't always get it right but I figure I'll pick up most of the A and B covers for cheap somewhere down the line.

[greg]

The Ninjak #1 Sauvage variant was Cover D, but not a ratio cover. It seems tougher to find even though Ninjak #1 had huge total sales. The first appearance of Roku combined with the Roku cover art from Sauvage, and likely lowest non-ratio quantity, make that book stand out. Since Ninjak #1 Sauvage Cover D has broken out in the market despite the total sales for Ninjak #1 being higher, there's good reason to believe other breakouts could occur for lower sales issues (#2 or higher, or one-shot books with low sales).

I think the winning combination would be a higher letter regular cover, like C or D, a book containing a first appearance, a low total sales number for all covers, good cover art, and maybe even a cover appearance for the character with the first appearance inside.

I don't think those factors outweigh the 1:20 (or higher) ratio variant for the same issue (which will likely always be the most expensive), but they could make a $4 book (Cover C or D) a bigger growth (percentage) book than a 1:20+ already selling for $20+... especially if you find the Cover C or D in a bargain bin for $1 or $2.

There are likely higher than normal counts for any of these non-ratio books that are part of a series like cat cosplay, CGC replica, or interlocking art. The "sweet spot" for overlooked non-ratio books probably won't have anything extra happening like those examples. Non-ratio, non-special.

The jury is still out on these non-ratio books, but I think they could have more potential than 2nd print or 3rd print books which are low numbers (normally) but also technically reprints and often repeated cover art. I also think they have more potential than retailer-logo or convention-logo books which are low numbers, but they get concentrated distribution and remain associated with specific geographic areas, rather than having potential appeal to all collectors everywhere.

[greg]

tl;dr

The higher ratio Valiant books like 1:20, 1:50 probably aren't going to be surprise bargains in the market. 2nd and 3rd print books are technically reprints. Convention-logo and retailer-logo books don't have universal (geographic) distribution and demand. But non-ratio, non-special variants like Cover C or Cover D for lower print normal issues could be overlooked gems if they're still $4 or less.