10 new CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 in the past month...

[superman-prime]

[magnusr]

Reading stuff like this makes we wonder if the cgc bubble will pop.

I've been thinking that for years, so far I've been way wrong. To be precise I feel there are two CGC markets, one volatile that is risky (as I said, I've been wrong for a long while now) and one with more unique books that should be very stable. I especially feel that the difference between 9.6 and 9.8 is exaggerated, even more so considering the uncertainty in the grading itself.

/Magnus

[Draco]

CGC is not as big over here in the UK, although growing and im still unsure how i feel about it all.

Im not exactly against them, but im not for them either as there are too many things that dont add up for me.

Sure grading older comics requires serious time, effort and makes sense to pay for a proffessional opinion when thousands of dollars are being spent, but as there can be no gurantee on someone opinion i will always be sceptical to a degree.

I was one of the people who questioned the madness of spending $2500 on Harbinger # 1 thinking that not only could the price not hold, but would surely come down to less than $1,000 after others see the $$$ being chucked at it and suddenly more and more copies are being sent off to be graded in hope of the magicaL $1,000,s they can go for.

I cant think of a case in rencent years when a comic hit a massive price and wasnt followed by many others trying to emulate such a great score.
It was only a matter of time IMO that a good hit of these came out and the previous prices paid now seem way too much, although some would argue the economy isnt helping.
These books may go back up again, but my money is not on investing in 9.8 copies at several thousand dollars a piece.

How CGC operates overall is a mystery to me.
Im not saying i think these guys are manufacturing this industry to tailor their own needs/desires and such, but its very believable that people in a position of power like this will abuse or have already abused that power.

We have heard all manner of stories, from people with $$$$/fame resubbing books for much higher grades to rumours of CGC not wanting to have too many 9.8's and flooding the market, with 9.8 being so desirable.

Is there a group or organsation in this world that is free from lies and corruption, because if police, Doctors, Teachers, Priests, politicians and world leaders can lie to us about things of massive importance then im sure a company who have a monopoly on a part of the industry can do things to enhance and prolongue their own future.

I guess as this all comes down to someones opinion, the argument could continue forever.

[greg]

Well I assume you are going to say is that ZWH got his hoard graded and that's where all the 9.8's came from

I will neither confirm nor deny your statement, but I must admire your ability to read between the lines.

If that is the case, then I retract my disbelief of having 10 / 18 receive CGC 9.8.

I am not at all surprised that 10 / 18 copies of Harbinger #1
submitted by that individual would grade 9.8.
The hoard was larger than 18 copies...
so it's really the 10 best out of ... 40? 50?

That makes more sense to me knowing the grading abilities of the (hypothetical) submitter.

[myron]

Well I assume you are going to say is that ZWH got his hoard graded and that's where all the 9.8's came from

I will neither confirm nor deny your statement, but I must admire your ability to read between the lines.

If that is the case, then I retract my disbelief of having 10 / 18 receive CGC 9.8.

I am not at all surprised that 10 / 18 copies of Harbinger #1
submitted by that individual would grade 9.8.
The hoard was larger than 18 copies...
so it's really the 10 best out of ... 40? 50?

That makes more sense to me knowing the grading abilities of the (hypothetical) submitter.

absolutely

[greg]

I was one of the people who questioned the madness of spending $2500 on Harbinger # 1 thinking that not only could the price not hold, but would surely come down to less than $1,000 after others see the $$$ being chucked at it and suddenly more and more copies are being sent off to be graded in hope of the magicaL $1,000,s they can go for.

I agree... we should probably "learn our lesson" from the other modern key issues.

For example, when we break out the percentage of CGC submissions
in the CGC 9.4 to CGC 9.8 range for Amazing Spider-man #300, we get:

9.8: 9%
9.6: 41%
9.4: 50%

For Harbinger #1, it's almost identical:

9.8: 10%
9.6: 44%
9.4: 46%

But look at the difference in the 2009 prices paid for those grades:

ASM #300:
9.8: $820
9.6: $230
9.4: $120

Harbinger #1:
9.8: $1,326
9.6: $98
9.4: $65

Let's assume that the 9.4 prices are "stable" for both of these books.

The 9.4 multiplier for ASM #300 to get the 9.6 price average is 1.9.
($120 times 1.9 = $230)

The 9.4 multiplier for Harbinger #1 to get the 9.6 price average is 1.5.
($65 times 1.5 = $98)

At this point, it looks like Harbinger #1 CGC 9.6 may be undervalued relative
to the price of the 9.4, using ASM #300 as a more established example.
If the 9.4 multiplier for Harbinger #1 CGC 9.6 was 1.9 (like ASM #300),
then the CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 price average would be around $120-$125.

The 9.4 multiplier for ASM #300 to get the 9.8 price average is 6.8.
($120 times 6.8 = $820)

The 9.4 multiplier for Harbinger #1 to get the 9.8 price average is 20.4.
($65 times 20.4 = $1326)

Clearly, Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 appears overvalued relative to the 9.4 price,
and the ASM #300 multiplier example would have CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 valued around $450.
($65 times 6.8 = $450)

Using a modern key like ASM #300 as a guide, and using the
CGC 9.4 Harbinger #1 price as a stable starting point, it looks like
the "appropriate" breakdown of prices for Harbinger #1 should be more like:
9.4: $65
9.6: $120
9.8: $450

However, there are 200+ copies of ASM #300 in CGC 9.8,
while there are only 30 copies of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1.

...which brings us back to supply and demand.

[iggy101us]

There are only 20 copies Solar #10 CGC 9.8 (and no SS). I wonder when Solar #10 hoarders will submit them for grading?

[greg]

There are only 20 copies Solar #10 CGC 9.8 (and no SS). I wonder when Solar #10 hoarders will submit them for grading?

Good question.

My copies have already been graded, and I didn't get a 9.8.

Doing the same ASM #300 experiment with Solar #10 (first print),
we would get rough-estimate prices for Solar #10 as:

CGC 9.4: $25
CGC 9.6: $50
CGC 9.8: $175

That's probably too low for the 9.8 price with only 20 on the census,
but it seems realistic to me if the number of 9.8 copies increase.
The key question is, how stable is the $25 price for CGC 9.4?

If the CGC 9.4 price was even $30, the 9.8 price would move to $200+...
keeping the same ratios as the ASM #300 example.

I'd say that $200 to $300 might still be a valid price for CGC 9.8 Solar #10,
even if the census numbers increased dramatically...
but I don't know how long it will be before the auction prices are that low.
(Buy-It-Now doesn't count... that wasn't an auction.)

[Draco]

Using a modern key like ASM #300 as a guide, and using the
CGC 9.4 Harbinger #1 price as a stable starting point, it looks like
the "appropriate" breakdown of prices for Harbinger #1 should be more like:
9.4: $65
9.6: $120
9.8: $450

However, there are 200+ copies of ASM #300 in CGC 9.8,
while there are only 30 copies of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1.

...which brings us back to supply and demand.

Indeed, supply and demand is most definitely the deciding factor here.

So as your ever glorious number work shows the amount of 9.8's to be low in comparison to other noteable books in 9.8, will the demand continue to outstrip the supply and keep prices over $1,000 for Harbinger # 1, or will they as i originally though, slowly come in line with what you noted as the appropriate breakdown for a 9.8?

[greg]

Indeed, supply and demand is most definitely the deciding factor here.

So as your ever glorious number work shows the amount of 9.8's to be low in comparison to other noteable books in 9.8, will the demand continue to outstrip the supply and keep prices over $1,000 for Harbinger # 1, or will they as i originally though, slowly come in line with what you noted as the appropriate breakdown for a 9.8?

CGC prices (or even comic prices, in general) are really driven by two different "markets".

The "first market" is the "gotta-have-it-now" market, which pushes prices through the roof
whenever a handful of people are willing to pay any price to get the only available copies.

This "first market" only exists for CGC graded books while the number of copies on the census is low.
For example, when CGC 9.8 Magnus #13 was the lowest census number for pre-Unity "common" issues,
it sold for $200+ at least three different times.

Magnus #13, as we all know, isn't a special book.
Unslabbed, it MIGHT be worth $5.

As a result, the "second market" will eventually take over for CGC 9.8 Magnus #13.
The "second market" will be driven by more "rational" pricing, based upon the fact
that collectors DO want to own the book, but they will not pay any price to get it.
The "second market" will compare the underlying value of the book with the census
and the "going rate" for books of similar qualities... and then buyers pay accordingly.

CGC 9.8 Harbinger #8 is another example... high prices now,
but the book unslabbed is probably $2 or less. That's not a key issue.
The census increases will quickly move the Harbinger #8 prices down.

Books like Amazing Spider-man #300 are so well-established that they quickly moved
into the "second market" after they started appearing on eBay as CGC 9.8.
There wasn't much time for the "first market" to exist.

Valiant books are far less popular than ASM #300, so the existence of the "first market"
is a longer window... $2,500 for CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 only occurs in the "first market".

The transition to the "second market" may be gradual, but it will always occur as long
as the census numbers keep increasing faster than "first market" buyers arrive.

The "crossing point" for Valiant key issues specifically, in my opinion, is probably
when the CGC census has 25 to 30 copies of the book that is in demand.
Harbinger #1 seems to be reaching that point right now.
Solar #10 is still a little behind that point, still in the "first market".

Valiant non-key issues might only need 5 or 10 copies to reach the "second market".
Or, they may not have a "first market" at all.
How many times would someone overpay for CGC 9.8 Turok #6? Once, maybe?

Other publishers, other comics may have completely different crossing points...
I would guess that if there were only 100 copies of Amazing Spider-man #300 in CGC 9.8,
the price might be double (or triple) what it is now.
It might still be in the "first market" even with the census count at 100.

A book doesn't have to be CGC graded in order to be in the "first market".
Think about the $250 that X-O Manowar #1/2 Gold used to reach in auctions.

Suddenly, X-O Manowar #1/2 Gold moved into the "second market" when that one seller
dropped a bunch into the market at the same time. The book went to $25.
Many of the Acclaim books fit the "first market" category...
and will stay in "first market" until the demand is met.

If in-demand books become more available, people will begin to ask,
"Besides the limited supply, why do I even want this book?"
The actually contents of the book DO matter, eventually.
At least, there SHOULD be a point when contents matter.

Some comic "speculators" attempt to either prolong or re-establish the "first market"
prices by acquiring many copies of a book... hoarding, speculating, investing,
whatever name you want to call it.

It's debatable how successful those efforts have been at different times in the comic industry.

Obviously, cases of X-Men #1 (1991) are still basically worthless,
but a case of New Mutants #98 (1991) is probably paying off nicely.

[slym2none]

Hmm... I am going to have to go back and find some reason for X-Men #1 (1991) to become valuable. Maybe a first appearance by some minor character that will later be "big," i.e., NYX #3.....





-slym (honestly only has one copy each of the 5 covers)

[Draco]

Hmm... I am going to have to go back and find some reason for X-Men #1 (1991) to become valuable. Maybe a first appearance by some minor character that will later be "big," i.e., NYX #3.....





-slym (honestly only has one copy each of the 5 covers)

I know a guy who oredered 3000 copies, but probably needed 10.

Genius.

[playparadise]

I’m hoping to get a Harbinger 1 9.8 in the range of $400-$500.

Not to derail anyone hoping to get more but I personally believe this is a fairer value for the book.

The most recent CGC census update has reinforced what I have personally assumed would happen to this book. Also, when the movie spin is taken out of the equation a large drop will precipitate.

I've mentioned in another thread that Solar 10 9.8 is my key pre-unity book of choice. I feel the intrinsic value is greatest for several reasons and this will constitute Solar 10 as the most valuable pre-unity book in the future. Let me explore several reasons:

1) There is a greater movie value for this book since it incorporates both a Gold Key character (Solar) and the first appearance of two key Valiant players (EW and the Geomancers). This would give (IMO) a higher chance of the “movie” value factor.

2) Solar 10 is such a difficult book to keep in good shape. I think that even the smallest of trauma will undermine the grade. Just the binding, printing and shipping process would have affected the book in most cases. Never mind handling scratches etc,.

3) The CGC ratios of 9.6 to 9.8 are beginning to show that Solar 10 is keeping the rarest “key pre-unity 9.8 title belt” for books that have a reasonably higher submission population. Harby 1: 30/126= 24% vs. Solar 10: 20/140= 14%

4) I suspect that lower submission tallies are representative of the Solar 10 CGC population since it’s much easier to differentiate a 9.4 from a 9.6, and to a lesser extent a 9.6 from a 9.8. Harby 1’s (as mentioned in an earlier post) have a greater probability of letting a 9.6 slip into the 9.8 category then a Solar 10.

5) Valiants where more popular when Solar 10 was released (hence the 2nd printing) which means a greater distribution of collectors may own the book (this could also work in reverse due to hoarded which will be mentioned later)

6) I think it’s a cooler looking book and enjoyed the story line(s) better.

Now, there are some concerns with my hypothesis and I’ll detail them below:

1) Approximately 15% more Solar’s where printed.
2) The “Valiant” effect (popularity) was in fuller swing when Solar 10 was released, therefore, more people potentially hoarded.
3) Harby is considered by collectors and media to be a more significant modern day book.
4) There is still a chance that the Harbinger movie will be created.

As a student of economics I place more value on scarcity then other factors. With that in mind, I believe Solar 10 9.8 will hold its value in the long run and surpass Harby 1 9.8.

I know this is probably a far stretch for most … but it’s just an opinion.

I’d love to hear about any missed points or flaws in my analysis.

[greg]

I’d love to hear about any missed points or flaws in my analysis.

Good analysis.

The only thing I would point out is that ungraded copies of Solar #10 sell for about
half of the price of ungraded copies of Harbinger #1.

Until the "underlying" (ungraded) market values change,
I would always expect CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 to be more valuable
if the CGC 9.8 census numbers for both books are anywhere near to each other.

That being said, a real increase in the CGC 9.8 count for Harbinger #1 could always
push the price down significantly, like CGC 9.8 Harbinger #0 Pink.

Of course, this brings up an interesting point...
Just why is the CGC 9.8 Harbinger #0 Pink price so low?

Thinking about Harbinger #0 Pink vs. Harbinger #1 vs. Solar #10

Pink is significantly lower printed... Pink was originally sent in the mail (possible damage)...
Pink was a key issue of greater value than either of the other books (in 1993)...

Except for the "apparent availability" of Harbinger #0 Pink on the market,
clearly visible in the current CGC counts for these three books
I can't think of a good reason for it to be worth less than the other two.

In "reality", there should be far fewer Harbinger #0 Pinks (of any grade)
than the other two books "out there in the world somewhere"...
and assuming that the CGC numbers will continue to grow in the future,
the #0 Pink counts will have to slow down far sooner than the other two books.

Currently, the CGC counts (all grades) are:
Harbinger #1: 435
Harbinger #0 Pink: 369
Solar #10: 258

If Valiant gets REALLY popular again... wouldn't we expect the number of copies
of Harbinger #1 and Solar #10 submitted to CGC to be much higher than Harbinger #0 Pink?

[Dr. Solar]

Well I assume you are going to say is that ZWH got his hoard graded and that's where all the 9.8's came from

I will neither confirm nor deny your statement, but I must admire your ability to read between the lines.

If that is the case, then I retract my disbelief of having 10 / 18 receive CGC 9.8.

I am not at all surprised that 10 / 18 copies of Harbinger #1
submitted by that individual would grade 9.8.
The hoard was larger than 18 copies...
so it's really the 10 best out of ... 40? 50?

That makes more sense to me knowing the grading abilities of the (hypothetical) submitter.

Hypothetically, I was with the hypothetical individual that hypothetically submitted some of these books.

Having hypothetically seen the books that were hypothetically signed and hypothetically submitted with my own eyes, and having hypothetically held and inspected these books before they were submitted, the grades that these books got does not surprise me.

Hypothetically, of course.

[greg]

Well I assume you are going to say is that ZWH got his hoard graded and that's where all the 9.8's came from

I will neither confirm nor deny your statement, but I must admire your ability to read between the lines.

If that is the case, then I retract my disbelief of having 10 / 18 receive CGC 9.8.

I am not at all surprised that 10 / 18 copies of Harbinger #1
submitted by that individual would grade 9.8.
The hoard was larger than 18 copies...
so it's really the 10 best out of ... 40? 50?

That makes more sense to me knowing the grading abilities of the (hypothetical) submitter.

Hypothetically, I was with the hypothetical individual that hypothetically submitted some of these books.

Having hypothetically seen the books that were hypothetically signed and hypothetically submitted with my own eyes, and having hypothetically held and inspected these books before they were submitted, the grades that these books got does not surprise me.

Hypothetically, of course.

Again, if this is (hypothetically) the case... then I no longer have disbelief about the grades.

CGC may be grading more books, quicker than ever, but I don't believe they've gotten as "lax"
as they would if 18 "random" Harbinger #1 copies had shown up in one month,
and they gave 10 of them a CGC 9.8 designation.

Since these (hypothetically) aren't "random", then I'm not worried about CGC's latest Harbinger #1 activities.



Just out of curiosity, who do you think would have hypothetically signed them?

[playparadise]

I think the problem with incentive books is the fact that they’re incentives books.

I believe that people are much more likely to store away these books without even reading them. Harby 1 and Solar 10 were books more likely to be read by the general public and thus damaged in the process.

Also, did people know of the significant role that the Eternal Warrior or Geomancers would play in the Valiant universe? My guess is, not really. Since it’s not a first issue or send away, people might have neglected the book a bit more.

I noticed that the TPB was published in 1993 and the Harby 0 Pink in 1992 so depending on if people knew about the re-print that would have swayed them away from even opening the send away version and cause potential damage.

The pink book was also not prone to printing issues that Harby 1 experienced and would also maintain its crispness much easier then the Solar 10.

Reading through some of the threads I’m sure most on the board know about the seemingly endless supply of this book by an ex-valiant employee. I picked up a copy from him on e-bay and I can say with almost certainly (minus the “normal” upper left crease defect inherent to this book) that it would grade 9.8. I wouldn’t need it slabbed to justify its NM/M grade (it’s that sweet a copy).

9.8 scarcity is not really an issue since there are around 140 of them floating around. We’re looking at a 1:1 ratio with the 9.6’s and I place a high value on that comparison.

I believe that there is a saturation point of “Valiant 9.8 collectors”. For example, I simply plan on collecting one 9.8 book from each Valiant created pre-unity title (no Gold key’s characters). I’d think that most collectors are happy with one issue unless of course they really enjoy a particular character/issue or they are trying to influence the market value of the book by consistently buying it.

Minus the odd “hyped-up” book/title that brings in outside interest I think the list of collectors in 9.8 pre-unity Valiants is relatively small to justify books with an ample 9.8 supply.

Touching upon your updated note on the overall CGC submissions for these three books and the perceived impact of increased market popularity. I’d think that it would only re-enforce the scarcity of 9.8’s for Harby 1 and Solar 10 and would add higher multiples to these books versus the Pink or other books.

[Dr. Solar]

Hypothetically, JayJay and Jim would hypothetically have signed them.

[Elveen]

A few things.

The 9.4 multiplier for Harbinger #1 to get the 9.6 price average is 1.5.
($65 times 1.5 = $98)

The first day of my Senior year, I walked into to Math class late (I was walking some Cheerleaders to class), did not recognize one person and saw that there was 45 problems for homework. I got up and walked right out. Then became a P.E. aide for the rest of the year (yelling at freshys to get out of the locker room). So.....


#2)
For me, the #1 pre-unity book will always be Haryb #1. Not my favorite book, but IMO it is the standard for Pre-Uni.

[Dr. Solar]

For me, the #1 pre-unity book will always be Haryb #1. Not my favorite book, but IMO it is the standard for Pre-Uni.

I think it is fair to say that Harby 1 will always be the most iconic Valiant book.

It is to Valiant what Amazing Fantasy 15 is to Marvel.

[greg]

I think the problem with incentive books is the fact that they’re incentives books.

I believe that people are much more likely to store away these books without even reading them. Harby 1 and Solar 10 were books more likely to be read by the general public and thus damaged in the process.

Also, did people know of the significant role that the Eternal Warrior or Geomancers would play in the Valiant universe? My guess is, not really. Since it’s not a first issue or send away, people might have neglected the book a bit more.

I noticed that the TPB was published in 1993 and the Harby 0 Pink in 1992 so depending on if people knew about the re-print that would have swayed them away from even opening the send away version and cause potential damage.

The pink book was also not prone to printing issues that Harby 1 experienced and would also maintain its crispness much easier then the Solar 10.

Reading through some of the threads I’m sure most on the board know about the seemingly endless supply of this book by an ex-valiant employee. I picked up a copy from him on e-bay and I can say with almost certainly (minus the “normal” upper left crease defect inherent to this book) that it would grade 9.8. I wouldn’t need it slabbed to justify its NM/M grade (it’s that sweet a copy).

9.8 scarcity is not really an issue since there are around 140 of them floating around. We’re looking at a 1:1 ratio with the 9.6’s and I place a high value on that comparison.

I believe that there is a saturation point of “Valiant 9.8 collectors”. For example, I simply plan on collecting one 9.8 book from each Valiant created pre-unity title (no Gold key’s characters). I’d think that most collectors are happy with one issue unless of course they really enjoy a particular character/issue or they are trying to influence the market value of the book by consistently buying it.

Minus the odd “hyped-up” book/title that brings in outside interest I think the list of collectors in 9.8 pre-unity Valiants is relatively small to justify books with an ample 9.8 supply.

Touching upon your updated note on the overall CGC submissions for these three books and the perceived impact of increased market popularity. I’d think that it would only re-enforce the scarcity of 9.8’s for Harby 1 and Solar 10 and would add higher multiples to these books versus the Pink or other books.

Good analysis, again.

You're right about the number of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #0 Pinks already being "plenty" for the existing fanbase (currently 146 of them).

At the current pace, there will need to be 1,000 more Harbinger #1 submitted to even approach 100 CGC 9.8s.

[Mike J]

I seem to remember somebody posting that they were aware of a big uber-HG submission of these books and they were expecting a bunch to come back from CGC this month. I think it was one of the Kentucky guys but I don't remember for sure.

I remember someone saying that recently too but can't find the thread.

Pointed it out a couple months ago, not sure if this is the post your referring to

viewtopic.php?p=561446&highlight=#561446

[depluto]

A few things.

The 9.4 multiplier for Harbinger #1 to get the 9.6 price average is 1.5.
($65 times 1.5 = $98)

The first day of my Senior year, I walked into to Math class late (I was walking some Cheerleaders to class), did not recognize one person and saw that there was 45 problems for homework. I got up and walked right out. Then became a P.E. aide for the rest of the year (yelling at freshys to get out of the locker room). So.....


#2)
For me, the #1 pre-unity book will always be Haryb #1. Not my favorite book, but IMO it is the standard for Pre-Uni.

[greg]

Hypothetically, JayJay and Jim would hypothetically have signed them.

[Draco]

This has to be my favourite thread in some time.

Cheers guys.