CGC Harbinger #1 $2550 what does it mean for Valiant?

[superman-prime]

members always are offering cool stuff here, sooner or later you will get some goodies

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Look at the numbers. I have 70-75 odd Harby #1s. Apparently, there are people (not on the board) with a long box or two of Harby #1. That's 250 per long box.

Revisiting this thread, because we are three months on from this event....

Oh, I was wrong. I could only account for 43 copies. I don't know where the others went, or if I even had them.

Now, of course, I must obtain them.

My opinion, we will see more CGC 9.8's out there than there are now in the near future.

How many more?

I predict no more than 6-8, tops. I think the reality will be 2-3.

The book simply doesn't exist in 9.8.

As of this post, there are now 17 Harby #1s on the census (at the original post, there were 12.) That's 5 more in a relatively short span of time.

I am surprised by the SPEED of it, but not that there were more that came out of the woodwork.

But I stand by my assessment. As far as Pre-Unity books go, there are few books are rare (still) as Harby #1 in uber high grade, for the reasons mentioned ad infinitum. The other pre-unity #1s number into the dozens, if not hundreds. 17 pales by comparison.

I predict...and this is a prediction, so if I'm wrong, that doesn't mean I "don't know what I'm talking about"....that there will be 2-3 more 9.8s on the census by the end of the year, and that will be it.

Let's see what happens by Jan (and if I'm still around.)

[Rufusharley]

Oh, I was wrong.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Oh, I was wrong.

[betterthanezra]

Oh, I was wrong.

At least he comes into a forum and admits when he's wrong...



-Brian

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Oh, I was wrong.

At least he comes into a forum and admits when he's wrong...



-Brian

It's really not a big deal. It was either a mistaken assumption on my part, or I just haven't found the rest.

It's just important to remember when some *SQUEE* comes along and claims I "never admit when I'm wrong."

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

It's just important to remember when some *SQUEE*

I got *SQUEE* at for just posting the word '*SQUEE*' at another forum recently.

[superman-prime]

ya

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Harbinger #1 9.8 back down to $1225....

9.6 down to $160 (which is absolutely an absurd difference in price for such a little difference in grade.)

Aren't y'all glad you sold yours for $2500 when you did....?

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

For the record...back in March, when the one sold for $2550....THIS is the sale that I had predicted for THAT one, but I didn't accurately consider the effect of not seeing on on the market for so long.

This is (probably) what the book's ACTUALLY worth, which was my contention at that time.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

This is, in my opinion, a really good thread to revisit every couple of months or so. Harbinger #1, after all, is the premiere Valiant book, and has been since 1992. Yes, it's not the most rare (it's not even the rarest pre-unity), but it represents all that Valiant was, and is, and may become.

It serves as a good "benchmark", then.

[StarBrand]

For the record...back in March, when the one sold for $2550....THIS is the sale that I had predicted for THAT one, but I didn't accurately consider the effect of not seeing on on the market for so long.

This is (probably) what the book's ACTUALLY worth, which was my contention at that time.

You also failed to realize how hot Harbinger 1 was at that time due to the then recently announced Harbinger movie option. Proper research would've revealed to you how much unslabbed nm copies had been going for prior to that book closing. Unslabbed nm copies of Harbinger 1 had been selling at the time for 2.5 times the priorly established rate due to the movie announcement. Harbinger 1 in CGC 9.8 before that book closed was at 1,000.00. Multiply that by the 2.5 times previous prices realized for unslabbed nm copies Harbinger 1 had been going for prior to that sale and you have 2,500.00. If you'd properly assessed all those factors you never would've predicted that book would close at 1,200.00.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

For the record...back in March, when the one sold for $2550....THIS is the sale that I had predicted for THAT one, but I didn't accurately consider the effect of not seeing on on the market for so long.

This is (probably) what the book's ACTUALLY worth, which was my contention at that time.

You also failed to realize how hot Harbinger 1 was at that time due to the then recently announced Harbinger movie option. Proper research would've revealed to you how much unslabbed nm copies had been going for prior to that book closing.

You have GOT to be KIDDING me.

"Proper research"...?? You're accusing ME....ME!!...of not doing PROPER RESEARCH???



I'm sorry, StarBrand, but this is a complete load of crap. Where was the research you did? Where were the numbers you used to prove this AT THAT TIME? Why were you SILENT in providing evidence AT THAT TIME?

Where was your data?

Where were your charts?

Where were your links?

Why didn't you say ANY of this AT THE TIME?

You can't say crap like this when you didn't support your claims in the first place, without looking like a loon.

I didn't "fail" to realize anything of the sort, because it simply isn't true. The Harbinger "movie announcement" may have caused a bump in prices, but it was the availability of the FIRST 9.8 TO BE SOLD ON EBAY IN ALMOST 1.5 YEARS, as well as the result of two individuals who VERY BADLY wanted this book, that caused the phenomenal price this book achieved....NOT the "movie announcement."

THAT, combined with the release of the X-O Hardcover, and finally a large amount of CGC books, including Harbinger #1, ALSO being released to the market that tipped the market into a frenzy in April and May.

How can I say this? The data we have available supports it, that's how.

AS WELL....we're talking about SLABBED books, not RAW books. The market for both, while related, are NOT THE SAME THING.

And really....who says stuff like this...?

Sorry, StarBrand, but YOU are one of those people who has a need to support high prices, because these are the books you are trying to sell. It is in YOUR INTERESTS to try and promote desire for the items you wish to sell, and likewise challenge people who suggest otherwise. Therefore, you are quite obviously biased.

So of COURSE you're going to attempt to support anything which gives the appearance of justifying your prices, including trying to discredit people who say otherwise.

Obviously, your opinion on the matter is biased and tainted, and needs to be taken with a large grain of salt.

Showcase New England just sold a Harbinger #1 CGC 9.6 for $160. You have yours listed for a WHOPPING 50% higher, at $240. What makes your book better than his? And that's Showcase New England!

Unslabbed nm copies of Harbinger 1 had been selling at the time for 2.5 times the priorly established rate due to the movie announcement.

I'm sorry, but do you have any evidence of this...? Any proof at all?

What was the "priorly established rate" of raw #1 w/coupon Harbinger #1s....?

$20? $30? $40? $50?

What were "the new prices" which you are claiming is "2.5 times" the "priorly established rate"....?

$50? $100?

Data, please.

What are the parameters of that "priorly established rate"? Going back how far? Do you mean a 90 day average? 12 month average? Lifetime average on eBay?

The "movie announcement" was made on March 10, 2008. The CGC 9.8 sale was March 30, 2008. So, according to your claim, in this period, raw NM Harbinger #1s were selling for 2.5 times the "priorly established rate" (whatever that is, because you give no figures.)

I DID research, and though I didn't provide any specific examples at the time, I stated IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE ANNOUNCEMENT AND THE 9.8 SALE:

Harbinger #1 on eBay, in raw form, have been selling for $25-$35, the same prices they've been selling for since Acclaim's bankrupcty sale in Feb of 2005.

viewtopic.php?t=20455&start=0

Sorry, your "parameters" are FAR too nebulous and vague to be of any use in analysis. You MUST DEFINE your parameters before your analysis can be any use. Uber-vague phrases like "priorly established rate" are completely useless. HARD NUMBERS. HARD DATA.

Here's some hard data:

A "NM raw" copy sold on eBay for $32 + $3 on 3/9. Item # 260216874860.

(look at me, doing your work for you!)

So, clearly that is part of the "priorly established rate"...2.5 times $32 = $80.

There were no raw NM Harby #1s selling for $80 between March 10 and March 30, 2008.

A raw NM Harby 1 just sold auction style for $50 even.

$50 is 2.5 times $20. Harby #1s were selling for $20 raw prior to Mar 10, 2008?

REALLY?

Harbinger 1 in CGC 9.8 before that book closed was at 1,000.00.

Not on eBay it didn't.

Harbinger #1, before 2008, NEVER "closed" at $1,000 publicly (on eBay.) Yes, we know that there was A sale on comiclink, but when was that...? 2005? And that's a DIRECT SALE, which CANNOT be compared to AUCTION SALES.

Multiply that by the 2.5 times previous prices realized for unslabbed nm copies Harbinger 1 had been going for prior to that sale and you have 2,500.00.

WOW. I've RARELY seen such a far out conclusion drawn from absolutely nothing before. IMPRESSIVE!

Sorry, but you just pulled "2.5" out of thin air. No one can accept THIS claim without first demonstrating that "2.5" is a LEGITIMATE figure when quoting "pre-announcement" and "post-announcement" sales figures.

TOTAL....NONSENSE.

One cannot accept a premise, if the evidence used to GET to that premise is unsupportable.

The MAIN reason the Harby #1 CGC 9.8 sold for $2550 was quite simple:

As has been already stated elsewhere, this sale was due to a bidding "skirmish" between TWO buyers. We already know that the NEXT high bidder was at $1600, and the FOURTH high bid was $1500.

Yes, we all understand that there could have been snipes that didn't go off, but that's unlikely, since the high bid was a snipe itself.

That means, if Gavster hadn't been around, the high bid would have been $1600....NOT $2550!

The answer is plain and simple: TWO people wanted the book very badly, and TWO people DO NOT a MARKET MAKE.

Gavster already stated that his snipe was $4,000. If the second high bidder had bid $3999, thus forcing Gavster's $4000 high bid, would you have then said "4 times the previous prices realized"...?

Seriously, StarBrand, you're just pulling numbers out of nothing, and drawing ENTIRELY UNSUPPORTED CONCLUSIONS based on that!

I mean, come on. Seriously.

If you'd properly assessed all those factors you never would've predicted that book would close at 1,200.00, an incorrect prediction by 1,350.00,

Total nonsense.

As I already explained, the $2550 price was a FLUKE. The market DID NOT, and COULD NOT sustain that price. A more ACCURATE assesment of that value is "where did the THIRD bidder end up?" That answer is "$1600"....$1600 is a LOT closer to $1200 than it is $2550.

YOU fail to "properly assess" the factors of two people who DESPERATELY wanted that book, and were willing to pay far more than market price to get it.

All your other "factors" are fake, bogus, made up, as I have already shown.

Therefore, to sit there and crow about me "not properly assessing all those factors" is absolute crap.

Was I wrong in my prediction! Absolutely! I have already stated such. Where I FAILED, however, was not in any of the made up ways you are suggesting, but the impact that not appearing on eBay for 1.5 years had AND two bidders who DESPERATELY wanted the book (neither factors you considered.)

That is WHY they are called PREDICTIONS: they are about FUTURE events not yet known to us. People are ALLOWED to make predictions and have them turn out to not be accurate.

A "prediction" by StarBrand:

Someone might be willing to bid even more in anticipation of where this book might be at in a few years. It might look too high now, and might be a great move looking back in a few years.

Hmmmm.....a CGC 9.8 for $2550....then two more sales at $2000 and $2075, only a couple months later....and then the most recent sale four months later at $1225.

Great move in a few years....?

Not so great move in a few MONTHS.

a record amount for incorrectly predicting a closing price of a slabbed Valiant.

Wow! I own a RECORD! SWEET!

Man, I'll bet you were just all atwitter when you typed THAT sentence, weren't ya....?



Seriously, StarBrand, that is about the biggest load of crap I've seen on this board in a longggggg time. You will be VERY, VERY, VERY hardpressed to find someone who takes MORE time to RESEARCH on this board than me.

It's VERY EASY to make these ridiculous and absurd claims, now that the data is GONE from eBay....well, except for the fact that we RECORDED THAT INFORMATION ON THE BOARD BEFORE IT DISAPPEARED.

Oopsie for youpsie....

Why weren't you making these claims when this information could be checked....? Ahhh...because you couldn't.

I find it BEYOND convenient that you make such a ridiculous, unsupported, and vague set of "claims" now that the data is unresearchable....except that you forgot it was recorded on the board.

PROVE ME WRONG.

PROVIDE ME WITH HARD DATA. NUMBERS. COMPLETED AUCTIONS.

Oh, you can't, because they're gone.

Maybe, if you're nice to Greg, he might give you some help....if he has that information himself.

But, since I live and die by EVIDENCE and DATA, let's look at some that actually exists (you know, BESIDES the already recorded data on the board that REFUTES your bogus "claim"):

Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 sales:

2008 - 4 sales

Aug-07-2008 $1,225 Cert# 0903349004
Jun-12-2008 $2,075 Cert# 0903349005
Jun-01-2008 $2,000 Cert# 0152418001
Mar-30-2008 $2,550 Cert# 0907275002

2007 - ZERO EBAY SALES

2006 - 1 SALE, Nov $767

2005 - 3 sales

Aug-25-2005 $650 Cert# 0126240001
Aug-10-2005 $725 Cert# 0129724005
Mar-06-2005 $750 Cert# 0129724005


Which, as I stated, was the point. It wasn't the "movie announcement" that generated this price, although that certainly helped...it was the simple fact that the book had not appeared on eBay in almost a year and a half, and that TWO people wanted the book very, very badly.

Let's look at 9.6, and see if that gives us further clues:

Aug-07-2008 $160 Cert# 0903349002
Jun-30-2008 $139 Cert# 0152499001
Jun-15-2008 $200 Cert# 0909909038
Jun-12-2008 $214 Cert# 0903349007
May-26-2008 $252
Apr-19-2008 $229
Apr-10-2008 $205 Cert# 0060164005
Mar-19-2008 $125 Cert# 0805107006
Feb-29-2008 $123

Nov-26-2007 $109 Cert# 0807928003
Oct-28-2007 $92
Jul-09-2007 $85 Cert# 0146076001
May-27-2007 $76
May-07-2007 $74 Cert# 0144817001
Apr-30-2007 $68 Cert# 0776329019
Apr-22-2007 $88 Cert# 0776329019
Apr-16-2007 $86 Cert# 0776329019
Apr-09-2007 $103 Cert# 0776329019
Mar-08-2007 $90 Cert# 0776329019
Mar-01-2007 $91 Cert# 0776329019


(that gives us a clear enough idea, as everything else is the same.)

So....where are the "2.5" numbers you're claiming? The 12 month average, Aug 2007-Aug 2008, is $168. 2.5 times $168 = $420.

Where's the $420 sale?

Let's consider prices BEFORE March 10, which is when the "movie" was announced.

The 12 month average, from March 2007-March 2008 = $93...this includes a sale AFTER the "movie announcement" at $125.

Let me repeat that: a 9.6 sale occured NINE DAYS after the "movie announcement" for $125.

I thought the "movie announcement" was what fueled speculation...? Certainly nine days is enough, no?

Interesting fact: on Feb 29, 2008, a full 11 days BEFORE the "movie announcement", a 9.6 Harby #1 sold for $123. Three weeks later, another one sold for $125. $125 = 2.5 x $123....?

But, $123 is part of the "priorly established rate" as StarBrand puts it.



Back to the average. The 12 month average up to the "movie announcement" of March 10, 2008, was $90. Certainly we can agree that those are "priorly established rates", no? (We're going to have to, because that's functionally the best data we have.)

$90 x 2.5 = $226. Yet, there are NO sales even approaching that until a MONTH AFTER the "movie announcement" (when such hype would have necessarily died down.) The one sale IN that time was only 25% more than the 90 day average, and only TWO DOLLARS MORE THAN THE LAST PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT SALE.

YOUR claim is that, BETWEEN the March 10 "movie announcement" and the March 30 sale of the CGC 9.8 that Harbingers #1 RAW were selling for "2.5 times the priorly established rate" (whatever that is, because you fail to note it.)

Yet you cannot prove that claim in any way!

Here's a claim by StarBrand:

Since the movie announcement #1 in CGC 9.6 has hit 125.00 twice.

Not on eBay it didn't. It hit it ONCE, on March 19.

Another claim by StarBrand:

I won two or three Harbinger 1s in CGC 9.6 last year, and although I didn't record how much I paid, I'm pretty sure they didn't approach 100.00. I think I won them for around 60.00 or 70.00 each including shipping. Not sure, though. I see Greg has them at 85.00 in that grade in the guide.

viewtopic.php?t=20455&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=25

Looking at GPA, it is quite clear that StarBrand is, again, making things up out of thin air.

Unless he won the two that sold in January and February for $58 and $53, he couldn't POSSIBLY have one a SINGLE 9.6 for "$60 or $70 shipped." The lowest priced 9.6 after Feb was $68, and that certainly wasn't shipped for $2.

And, of course, he wasn't considering that I was talking about the LAST sale, not sales from a year prior.

From the very same thread, a couple posts down:

The 12 month average (11 sales) is $93.40 (before shipping).
The 90 day average is $123.75.

Thanks for the info.

zephyrwashotwasrightasalways

Ok, maybe there aren't enough sales of 9.6s to be statistically useful.

Let's try the much more "common" 9.4s.

2008 -

Jul-13-2008 $71 Cert# 0151080004
Jun-09-2008 $40 Cert# 0152145011
Mar-26-2008 $70 Cert# 0149367013
Jan-17-2008 $55

2007 -

Dec-10-2007 $22
Nov-24-2007 $26
Nov-04-2007 $34
Oct-21-2007 $38 Cert# 0148825001
Jul-19-2007 $50
Jul-14-2007 $35 Cert# 0146284019
Apr-25-2007 $36
Apr-09-2007 $30 Cert# 0776329020
Mar-30-2007 $34 Cert# 0775090016
Mar-23-2007 $21 Cert# 0776329020
Mar-14-2007 $23 Cert# 0776329020
Mar-11-2007 $27 Cert# 0776329020
Mar-10-2007 $24 Cert# 0775090016
Mar-08-2007 $28 Cert# 0776329020
Mar-01-2007 $31

12 month average price for Harby #1 in 9.4 from 3-1-07 to 3-9-08? $32.

$32 x 2.5 = $80.

You have ONE SINGLE SALE in the time frame you're talking about. $70.

It's getting warmer.

But one sale does not an "average" make.

And the single sale CLOSEST to the "movie announcement" prior to it was $55. $70 is NOT 2.5 times $55.

I CAN give you some raw data from my own sales:

April 5, less than a week after the $2550 sale, and less than a month after the "movie announcement", I sold a stated VF/NM Harbinger #1 for $27. $27! Raw. That same week or thereabouts, Imagesowner sold a raw stated NEAR MINT copy for $127.

A month later, I sold a stated NM copy for $125.

Why?

Because of the 9.8. Not the "movie announcement."

Final conclusion....?

While it's very clear that the "movie announcement" certainly HELPED sales, it's quite obviously not the only, OR EVEN MAIN, factor in rising prices from March 10 to March 30, 2008, and most CERTAINLY was not a main factor in the $2550 sale of the 9.8. It is clear from the data that people were looking for uberhigh grade copies that they could cash in on. It's also quite clear that the PEAK of Valiant prices was in MAY....two months AFTER the "movie announcement", but RIGHT AROUND the X-O Hardcover being released and news of the Harby #1 9.8 making headlines.

Therefore, any claim that the "movie announcement" was what made Harbinger #1, RAW OR SLABBED, sell for "2.5 times priorly established rates" is entirely bogus, not supported by any data, and thoroughly made up.



(Although, truth be told, SB, I'm impressed at your moxie in going after me so viciously....that takes guts, especially in light of the total data thrashing that you KNEW was going to come. I mean, yeah, you look silly and ill-informed....not to mention, totally biased....but hey, it gave me something to do for a bit on a Sunday afternoon.

Seriously, man, I CLEARLY ticked you off at some point, and you have been waiting to pounce, but....man....this was NOT your best showing, and if this is the best you have....well....it just goes to the strength of my reasoning, ya know? Posts like this only make YOU look very, very bad, and certainly don't achieve what you HOPED they would achieve in trying to discredit ME. You'll find that I research the HELL out of everything I post, and my cases are far more often than not well, WELL supported by evidence and data.

So....take a breath, relax....and don't take things so personally. It was a prediction. It was wrong. But it wasn't wrong for any of the "reasons" you suggested, as I have AMPLY demonstrated in this reply. But even if it WAS wrong, there's no need for you to be so overtly hostile about it, crowing about how I "failed" to do this and I didn't do "Proper research"...don't tell ME I don't do proper research when there's not a DAMN person on this board who does more research than me. )

[JustCallMeAric]

Glad it brings attention to Valiant but I don't think that it is a sustainable price.

[StarBrand]

ZWH,
I'm sorry I don't have time to read your entire post above. I don't live for this board. I should've realized my post would elicit an obsessive response from you.
I'm not taking anything personally, I'm just pointing out your prediction on the closing price on this book was the worst prediction in the history of predicting Valiant slab prices. Probably nothing has ever been close. Possibly nothing ever will be. Wrong by 1,350.00. Gee, maybe the Harbinger movie option that had been announced within a month or so of this auction was a huge factor in the ending price. Oh, maybe it wasn't, because you say so. I will agree with you on one thing, let's keep revisiting this prediction.

[StarBrand]

Let me just say this also, ZWH. Although my post did spur quite a passionate response from you, someone had to give you a hard time about just how bad your prediction was. It was a grenade I was more than happy to fall on.
I seriously didn't read your entire response, I only skimmed it. Thanks for making me laugh, though. This has all brought a smile to my face.
In fact, I'd have to say you win. You beat me. You have more time to devote to this discussion. I could give a good accounting for myself if I put in the time and effort, but I won't. I can't. It's not that important to me, and I have to leave.
Like I said, you win. You beat me. In every way, except on the scoreboard. I beat you on the scoreboard. My prediction beat yours. By a mile. Scoreboard, baby!
Hey, if you want to write another four-hour dissertation regarding this post, please feel free to. You'll find there's no way to refute the scoreboard.
Okay, I'm just giving you a hard time. When the board-know-it-all is wrong by this much, he should expect a hard time. Like I said, it was all about falling on the grenade. I may never get another chance to give you a hard time like this. I probably won't.
Have a good day, Zeph! I still like ya! Go Valiant, or is that VALIANT?

[Brother J]

Let me just say this also, ZWH. Although my post did spur quite a passionate response from you, someone had to give you a hard time about just how bad your prediction was. It was a grenade I was more than happy to fall on.
I seriously didn't read your entire response, I only skimmed it. Thanks for making me laugh, though. This has all brought a smile to my face.
In fact, I'd have to say you win. You beat me. You have more time to devote to this discussion. I could give a good accounting for myself if I put in the time and effort, but I won't. I can't. It's not that important to me, and I have to leave.
Like I said, you win. You beat me. In every way, except on the scoreboard. I beat you on the scoreboard. My prediction beat yours. By a mile. Scoreboard, baby!
Hey, if you want to write another four-hour dissertation regarding this post, please feel free to. You'll find there's no way to refute the scoreboard.
Okay, I'm just giving you a hard time. When then board-know-it-all is wrong by this much, he should expect a hard time. Like I said, it was all about falling on the grenade. I may never get another chance to give you a hard time like this. I probably won't.
Have a good day, Zeph! I still like ya! Go Valiant, or is that VALIANT?

I usually get along pretty good with you, StarBrand, but in this case...



How about making a list of everyone who predicted the price correctly and a link to the posts where they did so?

[StarBrand]

Let me just say this also, ZWH. Although my post did spur quite a passionate response from you, someone had to give you a hard time about just how bad your prediction was. It was a grenade I was more than happy to fall on.
I seriously didn't read your entire response, I only skimmed it. Thanks for making me laugh, though. This has all brought a smile to my face.
In fact, I'd have to say you win. You beat me. You have more time to devote to this discussion. I could give a good accounting for myself if I put in the time and effort, but I won't. I can't. It's not that important to me, and I have to leave.
Like I said, you win. You beat me. In every way, except on the scoreboard. I beat you on the scoreboard. My prediction beat yours. By a mile. Scoreboard, baby!
Hey, if you want to write another four-hour dissertation regarding this post, please feel free to. You'll find there's no way to refute the scoreboard.
Okay, I'm just giving you a hard time. When then board-know-it-all is wrong by this much, he should expect a hard time. Like I said, it was all about falling on the grenade. I may never get another chance to give you a hard time like this. I probably won't.
Have a good day, Zeph! I still like ya! Go Valiant, or is that VALIANT?

I usually get along pretty good with you, StarBrand, but in this case...



How about making a list of everyone who predicted the price correctly and a link to the posts where they did so?

BrotherJ,
I wasn't really bragging about my prediction. It was probably mostly luck. One thing I'm well aware of, it only takes two bidders to drive a price on an online auction. I could've just as easily been wrong.
I realize there are a lot of guys on this board who know a lot more about Valiant than I do. Zeph is one of them.
I was just trying to give Zeph a hard time. I think I succeeded. lol
I doubt I'll ever see him make another prediction that ends up missing the mark like on this one, however, if I do, I reserve the right to give him a hard time about it again.

[yardstick]

...One thing I'm well aware of, it only takes two bidders to drive a price on an online auction...

Hey ZWH, just out of curiosity, I was wondering how many bidders there were for each of the auctions you quoted in your post. Do you have that info handy?

Thanks in advance...

[JustCallMeAric]

ZWH how do you find the time to gather all of these facts?

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

...One thing I'm well aware of, it only takes two bidders to drive a price on an online auction...

Hey ZWH, just out of curiosity, I was wondering how many bidders there were for each of the auctions you quoted in your post. Do you have that info handy?

Thanks in advance...

You're going to have to be a lot more specific, please. I quoted a ream of data, so I'm not sure to what, exactly, you refer.

Thanks!

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

ZWH how do you find the time to gather all of these facts?

This is training (as you yourself know, having been to law school.)

This is how cases are won and lost, by being able to not only gather data....reams and reams of it....but also being able to properly interpret it.

So, I consider it part of my education, and time very well spent.

Plus, my ego gets involved when someone has the utter audacity to claim that I didn't do the "proper research."



I am many, many, MANY things....but an incomplete researcher I am NOT.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

ZWH,
I'm sorry I don't have time to read your entire post above.

What, you need all that time to hawk your overpriced comics...?

I don't live for this board.

Yes, but it's not for YOU that the post was written.

It's NEVER for the fools who make up the nonsense...most especially when they do it in a confrontational and inflammatory manner, as you did.

It is not surprising that you are so disrespectful and tactless that you would say such a thing.

I should've realized my post would elicit an obsessive response from you.

"Obsessive"....?

You mean, so thoroughly discrediting your unsubstantiated and completely ignorant claims that it was what we call a "slam dunk"...?

THAT "obsessive"....?

I'm not taking anything personally, I'm just pointing out your prediction on the closing price on this book was the worst prediction in the history of predicting Valiant slab prices.

Prove it. Prove that it was "the worst prediction in the history of predicting Valiant slabs."

I'll wait.

.....

....

Still waiting.

Oh, right, you CAN'T prove it, because you don't prove ANYTHING. You offer NO data, NO evidence...you just make absurd, inflammatory, and ridiculous claims without any support of any kind.

Nevermind, then.

What relevance does this "record" have for ANYTHING? Hmmm....? My answer to you is a big SO...WHAT.

Did I place a WAGER on the prediction? Nope. Did anyone SUFFER because of my prediction? Nope.

What, then, is your point? What is your goal in pointing out this completely irrelevant "record"? Are you angry because I show you for the overpriced thief you really are? Are you upset because I accurately reflect the market, which hinders your ability to steal money from people with your overpriced garbage?

What does the "worst prediction in the history of predicting Valiant slab prices" MEAN?

According to what? Sheer DOLLAR value? Yeah, SO?

Please show me the Valiant slabs that routinely sell in that range.

I'll wait.

....

....

Oh, yeah, got nothing?

Not surprising.

Then let me point THIS out, as I have already quite clearly pointed out before: a person CANNOT PREDICT the effect that TWO PEOPLE who DESPERATELY WANT THE ITEM will have on the ending price. IT CANNOT BE DONE.

And...as I already said...PLEASE PAY ATTENTION THIS TIME....without EITHER of those bidders, the high bid woud have been $1600.

But you know what?

DOLLAR wise, it was off....but PERCENTAGE wise....there have been FAR, FAR, FAR worse predictions than "double."

FAR worse.

Let's look at YOUR offer of a Harbinger #1, CGC 9.6, currently "on sale" at the moment ("regular" price = $299)

Here's the ended listing:

http://cgi.ebay.com/Harbinger-1-CGC-9-6 ... dZViewItem

$299 is higher than ANY HARBINGER #1 CGC 9.6 HAS EVER SOLD FOR IN HISTORY. That's right, NO Harby #1 9.6 has EVER sold for that amount, and yet that's what YOU were asking for it. IT IS THE HIGHEST PRICE THAT ***ANYONE*** HAS EVER ASKED FOR A HARBY #1 CGC 9.6 ON EBAY.

Have you no shame...? CLEARLY YOU DO NOT.

That you would ask for 18% MORE than the book has EVER sold for (and THAT only ONCE!) and then have the nerve on top of THAT to charge S&H????

WOW!

You're asking for a RECORD price, QUADRUPLE last year's average!

QUARUPLE! I was only off on my CASUAL, CONVERSATIONAL PREDICTION by DOUBLE. YOU are asking QUADRUPLE!

WOW!

Probably nothing has ever been close.

I'm sorry, please show me the slabs that routinely sell in this price range....

Oh, right, we've already been through that.

YOU CAN'T.

Let me explain why it matters....if a person makes a prediction about a VERY RARE OCCURENCE (such as

Possibly nothing ever will be. Wrong by 1,350.00. Gee, maybe the Harbinger movie option that had been announced within a month or so of this auction was a huge factor in the ending price. Oh, maybe it wasn't, because you say so.

Oh, maybe it wasn't BECAUSE I PROVED SO WITH DATA AND EVIDENCE.

What the hell is wrong with you?

I will agree with you on one thing, let's keep revisiting this prediction.

Seriously, were you dropped repeatedly on your head as a child, that you need to be so rude? Did I beat you out of getting some cool comics for a good price at a convention or something? Did I make an offhand comment about comic book dealers needing to BATHE that offended you in some way, because it hit too close to home? That you have this hardon of rage against me so bad that you feel the need to try so hard to discredit an OFFHAND, CONVERSATIONAL PREDICTION that, NOT FACTORING IN THE SPOILER, WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE....?



Because this...this whole mess here...IS NOT about Harby #1 CGC 9.8. CLEARLY.

This is CLEARLY a case where your feelings got hurt by something I may have said (although WHAT, *I* certainly don't know. This is completely out of left field as far as *I'M* concerned.)

Whatever it is, it has NOTHING to do with "predictions" of any kind. The reality is is that this "record wrong prediction" is trivial and meaningless. No, it's not about the "prediction" at all, because it's NOTHING. Such predictions get made by people all the time, all over the place.

No, you're enraged about something ELSE, and you think you have found a way to lash out at me. Kudos!

So WHATEVER it may have been that tipped you over into this raw hatred and rage, my sincerest apologies. It CERTAINLY wasn't anything intentional.

You DO, however, need to get over this "Gee, maybe it was the movie that did it" nonsense, because I ALREADY proved that wrong. GET OVER IT. Your "theory" was ENTIRELY DISPROVEN AND DISCREDITED with ACTUAL....DATA. You know, EVIDENCE.

Not my OPINION. EVIDENCE.

YOU, however, seem to ONLY be able to operate by OPINION. THAT makes you a TYPICAL COMIC BOOK DEALER.

You want to have a grown up, rational, reasonable debate about market forces, I'm ALL FOR IT.

If you want to take POORLY CONSTRUCTED and WILDLY UNSUPPORTED POTSHOTS at me, well...that just reveals your character, doesn't it?

I would advise anyone reading this to AVOID doing business with "grandcanyoncomics"....if the ridiculously high prices and overgrading hasn't chased you off already. This should serve as an adequate warning of what you may be up against if you do.

[JustCallMeAric]

ZWH how do you find the time to gather all of these facts?

This is training (as you yourself know, having been to law school.)

This is how cases are won and lost, by being able to not only gather data....reams and reams of it....but also being able to properly interpret it.

So, I consider it part of my education, and time very well spent.

Plus, my ego gets involved when someone has the utter audacity to claim that I didn't do the "proper research."



I am many, many, MANY things....but an incomplete researcher I am NOT.

If I can summon half the devotion to law school that you have for this board I will be law review without a problem.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Let me just say this also, ZWH. Although my post did spur quite a passionate response from you, someone had to give you a hard time about just how bad your prediction was.

You're "trying" to sell a Harbinger #1 CGC 9.6 for $299.

Higher than any Harby #1 CGC 9.6 has ever sold for, or been offered for. Ever in history.

a grenade I was more than happy to fall on.
I seriously didn't read your entire response, I only skimmed it.

Like I said...the response wasn't for you. People like you don't take facts, figures, data and information seriously. You live in your basement dwelling world, where all that matters is that your mom does your laundry and has dinner ready by 6 PM.




The response...as always....was for everyone else.

Thanks for making me laugh, though. This has all brought a smile to my face.

It is very easy to bring a smile to the face of the simple.

In fact, I'd have to say you win. You beat me. You have more time to devote to this discussion. I could give a good accounting for myself if I put in the time and effort, but I won't.

No. You can't.

I can't.

You can't because you actually cannot, not because you choose not to.

not that important to me, and I have to leave.
Like I said, you win. You beat me. In every way, except on the scoreboard. I beat you on the scoreboard. My prediction beat yours. By a mile. Scoreboard, baby!

Ahhhhh...the picture becomes clearer....the source of your anger and hatred is becoming obvious...

You're jealous.

You're jealous because I can run circles of logic around your pincushion of a head. You're jealous because I know how to use logic, reason, data, and evidence to prove points, and THAT MAKES YOU MAD, because you cannot.

"I'm not jealous!"

Yeah. Right.

Non-jealous people don't crow about "my prediction beat yours." Non-jealous people don't talk about "Scoreboard", because they wouldn't think they had anything to prove. JEALOUS people DO think they have something to prove, and therefore use such language. I can almost HEAR you saying "neener neener NEEEEENNERR" as you typed this.

Oh...by the way....WHAT prediction...hmmm?

Please show me your prediction.

I scoured the boards pretty thoroughly yesterday, and could not find a "prediction" by you....only vague, nebulous responses to other people's predictions.

Things like "I wouldn't be surprised if it sold for more than you think" and stuff like that.

No actual concrete predictions.

So....where was your prediction?

Hey, if you want to write another four-hour dissertation regarding this post, please feel free to.

Gee, thanks for your permission! Four hours? Is THAT how long it takes you to read my posts...?

Poor thing, no WONDER you just skimmed it! I'll bet that was the hardest 2.5 hours of your life!

You'll find there's no way to refute the scoreboard.

1. Please provide this "prediction" that you made.

2. You'll find, in fact, that I did "refute" the "scoreboard." You were completely and thoroughly discredited, with the plethora of evidence provided above.

Okay, I'm just giving you a hard time. When the board-know-it-all

Hey, folks...remember when I said it was important for me to point out the times when I've been wrong, because there are going to be people who will make claims like "you think you know it ALL, don't you??" and "you never admit you're wrong about ANYTHING, do you?", and that it was important to point out, in fact, that I know next to NOTHING when it comes to the amount there is to KNOW?

That my knowledge is perhaps the head of a pin in the Pacific Ocean of knowledge that exists?

And that anyone CLAIMING that I'm a "know-it-all" is actually just saying that because they can't argue against my logic and reasoning, so they have to simply attack me PERSONALLY?

Ladies and Gentlemen...I give you: Exhibit A.

I am not the "board-know-it-all", StarBrand. In comics, I certainly know a lot, but I came by that knowledge dearly fought. In other fields, other members of this board wipe me off the map, a fact I quite clearly acknowledge.

But clearly I'm a "ZWH-knows-more-than-StarBrand."

And, really....that's all that matters, huh?

is wrong by this much

Again...you keep whining about how MUCH the prediction was off, as if that's such an incredible thing.

Please explain the relevance.

, he should expect a hard time. Like I said, it was all about falling on the grenade.

You sure like falling on grenades a lot....you sure those are grenades...? And are you sure you're falling, and not sitting....?

I may never get another chance to give you a hard time like this. I probably won't.
Have a good day, Zeph! I still like ya! Go Valiant, or is that VALIANT?

You're so neat! Seriously, SB, I'm glad you're sooooooooooooo arrogant.

It only made my utter dismantling of your "arguments" that much sweeter.

Thank you. Truly.