Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8s on eBay (past and current auctions)

[GGSAE]

That would sully the comparison of other books. If you want to go ahead and promote the *SQUEE* out of something, then by all means, but do it for each book.

Prehaps, or it could cause a potential buyer to take a look at Harby #1, then realize it is out of his price-range, while at the same time reminding him/her of Valiant's existance. He/she then, potentially might take a look at something other than Harby #1 (e.g. Shadowman, X-O, A&A, etc) and decide that one of those issues on sale IS within his/her price-range, and now we have another book sold and a new potential repeat Valiant buyer.

Or, nothing could happen at all.

Ehhh I don't know about that...Harbinger 1 is pretty well-known to most people in comics. The average guy wouldn't be as in the know as the rest of us in price history, but they probably have an idea of where the book sells...And another point I want to make (and this is by no means directed at anyone, I'm guilty of doing this a couple of times) is when someone intentionally bids something up knowing they wouldn't be on the hook for the auction (e.g. bidding this up book early to $250-300 knowing it won't sell there). Regardless of intent, it impacts the auction....but enough babbling! I hope the bengals hold it together and keep the score low so I win this week's pool picks!

[DirtbagSailor]

And another point I want to make (and this is by no means directed at anyone, I'm guilty of doing this a couple of times) is when someone intentionally bids something up knowing they wouldn't be on the hook for the auction (e.g. bidding this up book early to $250-300 knowing it won't sell there). Regardless of intent, it impacts the auction....but enough babbling! I hope the bengals hold it together and keep the score low so I win this week's pool picks!

I agree.

There are six people bidding on this so far, with just under 6 days to go. It's sitting at $330 presently, and I would bet that this price doesn't move until the last day with a small battle of 2-3 bidders near the end.

That is, unless someone pushes it to $400-$450 early, and is also willing to take it for that price (which is it's listed value), and also if no other bidders attempt to out-bid them near the end.

[StarBrand]

Already up to $202.

Make that $305.

Yer welcome .

Yer thanked.

Good luck, btw.

[StarBrand]

A new copy went up yesterday with a BIN of 420 and free shipping. I'd post a link, but I'm on an iPad and I don't know how to copy and paste on this thing and have no intention of learning how to. Lol

[lorddunlow]

A new copy went up yesterday with a BIN of 420 and free shipping. I'd post a link, but I'm on an iPad and I don't know how to copy and paste on this thing and have no intention of learning how to. Lol

Way to be open to personal growth and lifetime learning!

[StarBrand]

A new copy went up yesterday with a BIN of 420 and free shipping. I'd post a link, but I'm on an iPad and I don't know how to copy and paste on this thing and have no intention of learning how to. Lol

Way to be open to personal growth and lifetime learning!

Actually, I need to lose a bit of personal girth, or so I've learned.

[lorddunlow]

A new copy went up yesterday with a BIN of 420 and free shipping. I'd post a link, but I'm on an iPad and I don't know how to copy and paste on this thing and have no intention of learning how to. Lol

Way to be open to personal growth and lifetime learning!

Actually, I need to lose a bit of personal girth

That's what she said.

[lorddunlow]

I also had to add that to the quotes thread. It flows so well with the preceding quote on that thread.

[DirtbagSailor]

Harbinger #1 CGC 9.8 sales and auctions on eBay:

$549.95
http://www.ebay.com/itm/HARBINGER-1-CGC ... 2c72521282" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

$531.00
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Harbinger-1992- ... 4858ff57b1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

$475.00
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Harbinger-1-CGC ... 53fc76f618" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

$420.00
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Harbinger-1992- ... 20d8064807" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(This is an average BIN price of $494, which is about 9-10% above market value + shipping. IF they all sell, then great, but I suspect they would have a much easier time selling at $475 ea + shipping)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1 eBay Auction:
Presently at $330.00 with 13 bids
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Harbinger-1-CGC ... 338589bfa7" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[nycjadie]

An amazing bargain. $338
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Harbinger-1-CGC ... 2128372931" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[StarBrand]

An amazing bargain. $338
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Harbinger-1-CGC ... 2128372931" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Wow!

[GGSAE]

An amazing bargain. $338
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Harbinger-1-CGC ... 2128372931" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Where was that guy that was looking to buy more copies?

I wonder if this will get down to $300?

[iggy101us]

1st post updated with recent sale of $338. Cheapest copy now is $420 BIN. 1 copy added to census.

[ckb]

An amazing bargain. $338
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Harbinger-1-CGC ... 2128372931" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Wow!

It's sorta got a soft corner. It's the kind of thing that would keep some buyers away. If you can see something wrong with a 9.8 from that sort of a scan it's normally not going to help your auction.

[drmirage]

Prices now lowest at $420 keeps on getting less and less.

I almost got one before from another member for $460-$480.

Will this book go below $400?

1st post updated with recent sale of $338. Cheapest copy now is $420 BIN. 1 copy added to census.

[DirtbagSailor]

Prices now lowest at $420 keeps on getting less and less.

I almost got one before from another member for $460-$480.

Will this book go below $400?

It quite possibly could, as the demand for this book is less than the supply. However, as VEI continues to grow and expand, and with it also it's customer fan base, that trend could very well reverse and create a stuation where the book starts to climbe once again in value. The amount of 9.8's floating about (or even potential 9.8's) will always be somewhat limited, and with an increase in demand due to an growing number of Valiant customers it is only a matter of time before folks start once again looking for this book in high-grade quality.

Something that VEI needs to consider would be the production of a few YouTube videos and/or articles on the various websites that maintain heavy nerd traffic (e.g. IGN, Bleeding Cool, ComicBookMovie.com, etc.). There is no real reason that Groo the Wanderer (see image below...) should be listed in the "Top 100 comicbook heroes" countdown, while ZERO Valiant characters are listed. Once Sting, Aric, Aram, etc make the list, and/or enter deeper into pop-culture, we will see this market expand more and more, and with it classic issue value.

[GGSAE]

Prices now lowest at $420 keeps on getting less and less.

I almost got one before from another member for $460-$480.

Will this book go below $400?

It quite possibly could, as the demand for this book is less than the supply. However, as VEI continues to grow and expand, and with it also it's customer fan base, that trend could very well reverse and create a stuation where the book starts to climbe once again in value. The amount of 9.8's floating about (or even potential 9.8's) will always be somewhat limited, and with an increase in demand due to an growing number of Valiant customers it is only a matter of time before folks start once again looking for this book in high-grade quality.

Something that VEI needs to consider would be the production of a few YouTube videos and/or articles on the various websites that maintain heavy nerd traffic (e.g. IGN, Bleeding Cool, ComicBookMovie.com, etc.). There is no real reason that Groo the Wanderer (see image below...) should be listed in the "Top 100 comicbook heroes" countdown, while ZERO Valiant characters are listed. Once Sting, Aric, Aram, etc make the list, and/or enter deeper into pop-culture, we will see this market expand more and more, and with it classic issue value.

You keep saying 'it's only a matter of time' before buyers start gobbling these up. But the fact remains we don't know if there is an increased demand in this book, or ever will be. What we do know for certain is: supply is continually increasing (upward sloping curve) on a linear scale, while demand is a non-linear, fractured price profile (like the price history of a commodity).

Some assumptions that seem to resonate constantly throughout this thread:

1) Increase in popularity in VE1 will increase popularity of VH1. Logically it makes sense, but there has been zero evidence of this. Aside from an initial bump in VH1 prices (most likely speculative-based right before the launch), there hasn't been an increase in pricing, and in most cases there's been a decline in prices.

2) Harbinger 1 9.8 is a key book, probably the key in the Valiant universe, but here's the rub. The book doesn't exist in a vacuum, and like all asset classes moving towards 99% correlation (stocks, bonds, commodities, etc.), the price of Harbinger 1 is dependent on the other books. It's important to measure alternatives to Harbinger that the buyer/collector has to consider. If Valiant prices have depressed/or stayed stagnant, it would be difficult to see a large sustained demand in Harbinger 1 and not the other books. Whether that book is Solar 10 9.8, EW VSS, or Shadowman Full-Size (don't laugh, this book is impossible to find!) most buyers have a choice to make, and for me I choose several options over spending $400 on Harbinger 1.

3) You choose Groo as a 'what the hell' book to compare it to, and you bring up a good point. However, VE1 competes with A LOT of other talent out there. Just scroll through the 'reading' threads and see the competition that's out there. So now in addition to choosing whether I want to go after VE1 variants, I can choose for competing modern books, and that list is growing by the day!

[ckb]

What we do know for certain is: supply is continually increasing (upward sloping curve) on a linear scale

I just want to politely point out that we do not know this for certain. Numbers increasing on the census does not 100% indicate an increasing supply. It would be more correct to state that the -potential- supply is increasing. For example, the book in my collection does not add to the current supply for a supply/demand pricing discussion in the current market.

There are even problems with that statement since we do not see books come off the census. If a book is cracked out or destroyed or lost, it never comes off.

So, we can state accurately that it is likely the potential supply is increasing, not that it is certain.

[GGSAE]

What we do know for certain is: supply is continually increasing (upward sloping curve) on a linear scale

I just want to politely point out that we do not know this for certain. Numbers increasing on the census does not 100% indicate an increasing supply. It would be more correct to state that the -potential- supply is increasing. For example, the book in my collection does not add to the current supply for a supply/demand pricing discussion in the current market.

There are even problems with that statement since we do not see books come off the census. If a book is cracked out or destroyed or lost, it never comes off.

So, we can state accurately that it is likely the potential supply is increasing, not that it is certain.

Okay, re-holders need to be taken-out of the census, but what percentage of 9.8s are from cracked cases? I'm guessing pretty small...

But I disagree with you about personal books not being a part of supply. All books are a part of the census. Just like all outstanding shares of ABC company are considered part of the equity of the company. Regardless of whether there are pending orders on the float (public shares) that may or may not be traded on the exchanges, and if restricted shares are exercised they will affect the equity portion on the balance sheet. Just because you say 'it's in your personal collection' and this isn't a slight towards you Chris, it's still a book that's a part of the supply that could be sold at any time. I've made that claim that I would never sell a book....and two of them are on their way to CGC....

[Ricomortis]

What we do know for certain is: supply is continually increasing (upward sloping curve) on a linear scale

I just want to politely point out that we do not know this for certain. Numbers increasing on the census does not 100% indicate an increasing supply. It would be more correct to state that the -potential- supply is increasing. For example, the book in my collection does not add to the current supply for a supply/demand pricing discussion in the current market.

There are even problems with that statement since we do not see books come off the census. If a book is cracked out or destroyed or lost, it never comes off.

So, we can state accurately that it is likely the potential supply is increasing, not that it is certain.

Okay, re-holders need to be taken-out of the census, but what percentage of 9.8s are from cracked cases? I'm guessing pretty small...

But I disagree with you about personal books not being a part of supply. All books are a part of the census. Just like all outstanding shares of ABC company are considered part of the equity of the company. Regardless of whether there are pending orders on the float (public shares) that may or may not be traded on the exchanges, and if restricted shares are exercised they will affect the equity portion on the balance sheet. Just because you say 'it's in your personal collection' and this isn't a slight towards you Chris, it's still a book that's a part of the supply that could be sold at any time. I've made that claim that I would never sell a book....and two of them are on their way to CGC....

Comic Books are the exact reason I started trading stocks at the age of 17-18. However, what the difference is.... there are ALWAYS shares available to buy, even if some market maker has to short shares to sell them to you. I have waited years for certain comics to come up in 9.8 condition.

There may be 40,000 copies of Harby 1 but only a little over 100 of them are of any interest to me.

There are "strong hands" and " weak hands". There is like a 1% chance that I will have to sell mine. I will keep them and hand down to future generations... Even if Harby 1 goes bankrupt. Lol! It's almost like a company doing a buy back. There is a sentimental difference here and not EVERYONE is doing it for a profit. I have said more than once that you might as well take my copies off the census.

Just something to add to the conversation.

Rico

[GGSAE]

What we do know for certain is: supply is continually increasing (upward sloping curve) on a linear scale

I just want to politely point out that we do not know this for certain. Numbers increasing on the census does not 100% indicate an increasing supply. It would be more correct to state that the -potential- supply is increasing. For example, the book in my collection does not add to the current supply for a supply/demand pricing discussion in the current market.

There are even problems with that statement since we do not see books come off the census. If a book is cracked out or destroyed or lost, it never comes off.

So, we can state accurately that it is likely the potential supply is increasing, not that it is certain.

Okay, re-holders need to be taken-out of the census, but what percentage of 9.8s are from cracked cases? I'm guessing pretty small...

But I disagree with you about personal books not being a part of supply. All books are a part of the census. Just like all outstanding shares of ABC company are considered part of the equity of the company. Regardless of whether there are pending orders on the float (public shares) that may or may not be traded on the exchanges, and if restricted shares are exercised they will affect the equity portion on the balance sheet. Just because you say 'it's in your personal collection' and this isn't a slight towards you Chris, it's still a book that's a part of the supply that could be sold at any time. I've made that claim that I would never sell a book....and two of them are on their way to CGC....

Comic Books are the exact reason I started trading stocks at the age of 17-18. However, what the difference is.... there are ALWAYS shares available to buy, even if some market maker has to short shares to sell them to you. I have waited years for certain comics to come up in 9.8 condition.

There may be 40,000 copies of Harby 1 but only a little over 100 of them are of any interest to me.

There are "strong hands" and " weak hands". There is like a 1% chance that I will have to sell mine. I will keep them and hand down to future generations... Even if Harby 1 goes bankrupt. Lol! It's almost like a company doing a buy back. There is a sentimental difference here and not EVERYONE is doing it for a profit. I have said more than once that you might as well take my copies off the census.

Just something to add to the conversation.

Rico

Sure, and you can always get a lower-grade Harbinger 1 for much cheaper. I know you're one of the CGC die-hards here, but how many are as particular (or strong) as you, Rico? Who's to say that someone else definitely won't sell another copy, you can't predict what the future will hold. A loss of job, maybe buying a car or house, major medical expense, purchasing OA, moving into a different collecting stream, etc., all of these factors can flush out 'collector copies' at any time. These are factors of selling not motivated by profit - some of which are based on necessity.

[maraxusofkeld]

I've been reading this for a while and I'll throw in my two cents. I agree with a lot of what people have said, but I think the only way we will see renewed interest in VH1 books is with a potential movie announcement. The new Valiant books are superb, but how many of these "new" readers are going to decide they want to start buying older Valiant issues. I am unsure of the situation at your LCS, but when I go to a variety all over the state of Pa, owners are astounded when I ask about buying back issues as most of their sales come from newer items. My LCS still has Pre-Unity issues from back when the books were originally released. He never reduced them to quarter bins, but they were around or under Greg's guide for a long time.

[StarBrand]

Two currently listed auction style, both starting at 400.00.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/HARBINGER-1-CGC ... 2ecaa36036" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.ebay.com/itm/HARBINGER-1-CGC ... 4aca1a7d26" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[ckb]

Sure, and you can always get a lower-grade Harbinger 1 for much cheaper. I know you're one of the CGC die-hards here, but how many are as particular (or strong) as you, Rico? Who's to say that someone else definitely won't sell another copy, you can't predict what the future will hold. A loss of job, maybe buying a car or house, major medical expense, purchasing OA, moving into a different collecting stream, etc., all of these factors can flush out 'collector copies' at any time. These are factors of selling not motivated by profit - some of which are based on necessity.

All true, and it's why I like -potential supply- versus actual supply. The opposite of the "weak hand" example above is true as well - if there is a sense it may be worth more in the future, books in the actual supply move back into the potential supply.

Because demand is low right now you may be correct that we are seeing pricing based of the potential supply - basing a price off the census numbers and previous sales. If demand picks up, the pricing will move to actual supply and then we'll see how many weak hands are really out there. If demand or selling prices decrease, we will be able to figure out the same thing - nothing like a sinking ship to make the rats scurry.

[GGSAE]

I've been reading this for a while and I'll throw in my two cents. I agree with a lot of what people have said, but I think the only way we will see renewed interest in VH1 books is with a potential movie announcement. The new Valiant books are superb, but how many of these "new" readers are going to decide they want to start buying older Valiant issues. I am unsure of the situation at your LCS, but when I go to a variety all over the state of Pa, owners are astounded when I ask about buying back issues as most of their sales come from newer items. My LCS still has Pre-Unity issues from back when the books were originally released. He never reduced them to quarter bins, but they were around or under Greg's guide for a long time.

I really hate to say it, but aside from a very long and gradual, sustained penetration into the market, I think you're right. In a way speculators part a role in generating interest, look at The Sixth Gun. In a period of a few months, #1 spiked from unsold at cover to $900 in 9.8, to that same 9.8 dropping down to sales in the $125-150 range. A sustained increase of readership was the result of that earthquake in the middle.