Second batch just sent in to CGC for grading!

[224gideon]

Well i just sent in my seond batch into cgc which are mostly valiants!

Mag#0-4 copies-I think at least two are 9.8's and the other two are 9.6's.

mag#1-3 copies-One copy is a solid 9.8,the other two are borderline 9.6/9.8.

e.warrior#1 gold embossed var.-This book just shined and i would say 9.8!

mag#2-borderline 9.6/9.8

harb#4-To me a solid 9.8 but it has a slight(no color break) stress indentation by the spine.Could be either or.

Batman:Killing Joke-9.6?unsure could be a 9.4 also.

A note on the price decreases seen on slabbed valiants.I believe that the prices are now settling in to the more realistic patterns seen for these books now that the frenzy and hype has worn off.

In 3-5 years the prices paid now for valiant keys will be ridicuosly low i think.

The 9.8's for any of the variants and early low print run titles(pre-unity) will continuley go up.I think they are a tremendous buy right now and the next 3-5 years will prove that out.Some may be overpriced but just look at the cgc census for solar#10 for 9.8's.There just aren't that many out there.Or mag#0 the list can go on.

As the years keep passing on it will be harder and harder to find any keys from the valiant universe in vf/nm.The bronze age proved that to be true with many keys now were languishing in quater and dollar bins getting beat to crap ten years ago and now driving the cost up for any keys from the bronze age in 9.6.....9.8 forget about it.

If the valiant universe makes a comeback like i have been reading on the board with a new owner that could also unleash a tidal wave of back issue prospectors searching for the top tier valiant keys and minor keys.

Like kenny rogers said,"you got to know when to hold them,no when to fold them,no when to walk away and know when to run.

My bet is buy now and hold them.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Unless these characters get published again, you will not see any spike in prices in the next 3-5 years.

[soundoftheuniverse]

I'll trade you for one of your Mag 0 9.8's if you get one

[400yrs]

Unless these characters get published again, you will not see any spike in prices in the next 3-5 years.

I agree. For a price spike to occur any time soon, the books would have to see a huge increase in demand which would most likely only be brought about by a relaunch. Otherwise they'll drop or stay steady.

[Valiant OCD]

I aggree about the "quick spike" in values. But what are your opinions on the long term investment value of the very low print run Valiants?

My theory is that a good book is a good book. No is arguing that Valiants (pre unity) are some of the greatest books to come out of the 90's. That being said, I feel like a quality book with a very low print run can't help but steadily rise in value.

What do you guys think?

[400yrs]

I aggree about the "quick spike" in values. But what are your opinions on the long term investment value of the very low print run Valiants?

My theory is that a good book is a good book. No is arguing that Valiants (pre unity) are some of the greatest books to come out of the 90's. That being said, I feel like a quality book with a very low print run can't help but steadily rise in value.

What do you guys think?

Over the long run, I'd expect them to rise slowly. If the line remained unpublished into the future, I'd almost expect results resembling that of the EC comics line - having a fairly select group of big fans who keep interest in the books and help to drive the prices up until others slowly start to notice. Of course, everything could change if the books are back in print.

[224gideon]

I am strictly talking about valiant keys and not commons.By 2010 most of these early pre-unity keys will be about 18 years old.

The prices for graded 9.8 keys will definitley be on the rise whether they republish the characters or not.The quality of writing and stories with the low print runs to me assure a upsurge in price.

Mag 0 was about 8900 on the print run with only 20 or less 9.8's.That's a ridiculously low 9.8 %......

Demand does drive a market but so does rarity.

[Ricomortis]

Mag 0 was about 8900 on the print run with only 20 or less 9.8's.That's a ridiculously low 9.8 %......

Hey...I got 6 of those puppies.

[400yrs]

I am strictly talking about valiant keys and not commons.By 2010 most of these early pre-unity keys will be about 18 years old.

So am I.

The prices for graded 9.8 keys will definitley be on the rise whether they republish the characters or not.The quality of writing and stories with the low print runs to me assure a upsurge in price.

The story quality and low print runs won't matter if the demand for these books doesn't increase into the future.

Mag 0 was about 8900 on the print run with only 20 or less 9.8's.That's a ridiculously low 9.8 %......

Demand does drive a market but so does rarity.

Actually there are 25 if you are counting both with and without card books. Roughly 25% of those books submitted receive a 9.8 which most likely means many remain in nice shape.

I'm not arguing that the books will rise in price EVENTUALLY without a relaunch. I'm arguing that it's not going to happen in the next 5 years. An 18 year old book isn't going to be worth more money just because it is 18 years old. For age to become a factor, I'd guess you are looking at a thirty year mark instead of twenty.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

I aggree about the "quick spike" in values. But what are your opinions on the long term investment value of the very low print run Valiants?

My theory is that a good book is a good book. No is arguing that Valiants (pre unity) are some of the greatest books to come out of the 90's. That being said, I feel like a quality book with a very low print run can't help but steadily rise in value.

What do you guys think?

All depends on demand.

Harbinger #0 Pink....very low print run.....sold for $150 (that I personally witnessed)....then, after several years, it sold for $10-$15. Only in the last few years is it now selling for $30-$50...but not close to its peak.

Sooooo....I understand your point, but it requires demand. Harb #0, along with every other pre-unity, didn't steadily rise in value, but shot off like a rocket, then crashed just as hard...since then, they've proven it very difficult to steadily do ANYTHING. They've sputtered along, gaining some base value, but showing too many wild swings, still.

Better example: Wandering Star...great book, a bit of popularity in the early 90's...but no general demand, and pretty much 25 cent bin material. Quality book...low print run.....and no one cares.

With little or no demand, it doesn't matter how rare something may be, or how good it may be...it will remain worth little.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Over the long run, I'd expect them to rise slowly. If the line remained unpublished into the future, I'd almost expect results resembling that of the EC comics line - having a fairly select group of big fans who keep interest in the books and help to drive the prices up until others slowly start to notice. Of course, everything could change if the books are back in print.

Even EC is showing its age. There was no hotter publisher in the 60's to collect than EC. It was the most sought after line of the time, and prices...relative to prices of the day...soared. It took early Silver Marvel nearly 10 years to catch up in value to the EC's, but for most of the 60's, EC ruled the 'back issue' (such as it was) roost....there were few comics that were worth as much as they were.

Now, however...the fans that made so much of EC have either grown beyond comics, or simply died. EC's...once some of the most valuable back issues....have long since been surpassed in value, by most of Timely and DC's Golden Age books, and a great deal of DC and Marvel's Silver Age books...the holy grails of EC...Crime Patrol #15, etc....barely sell in the low thousands of dollars even in top grade, where books like Amazing Fantasy #15 sell for many multiples of these books, where once the opposite was true.

It's possible that as the diehard fans of EC continue to die off, with no one to replace them, that ECs will be no more valuable and desired than common Marvel or DC Silver.

This phenom was addressed in the O'Street Guide, but it's been witnessed in older collectibles like coins and whatnot....when older collectors die off, the fans of certain niche markets die off as well, and those niche markets suffer.

The same may be said of Valiant, though those days are decades off at this point.

I've said it a thousand times before, and I'll say it again....unless these characters are published again, Pre-Unity and other Valiant will never achieve it's true potential as back issues.

[Vault-Keeper]

Over the long run, I'd expect them to rise slowly. If the line remained unpublished into the future, I'd almost expect results resembling that of the EC comics line - having a fairly select group of big fans who keep interest in the books and help to drive the prices up until others slowly start to notice. Of course, everything could change if the books are back in print.

Even EC is showing its age. There was no hotter publisher in the 60's to collect than EC. It was the most sought after line of the time, and prices...relative to prices of the day...soared. It took early Silver Marvel nearly 10 years to catch up in value to the EC's, but for most of the 60's, EC ruled the 'back issue' (such as it was) roost....there were few comics that were worth as much as they were.

Now, however...the fans that made so much of EC have either grown beyond comics, or simply died. EC's...once some of the most valuable back issues....have long since been surpassed in value, by most of Timely and DC's Golden Age books, and a great deal of DC and Marvel's Silver Age books...the holy grails of EC...Crime Patrol #15, etc....barely sell in the low thousands of dollars even in top grade, where books like Amazing Fantasy #15 sell for many multiples of these books, where once the opposite was true.

It's possible that as the diehard fans of EC continue to die off, with no one to replace them, that ECs will be no more valuable and desired than common Marvel or DC Silver.

This phenom was addressed in the O'Street Guide, but it's been witnessed in older collectibles like coins and whatnot....when older collectors die off, the fans of certain niche markets die off as well, and those niche markets suffer.

The same may be said of Valiant, though those days are decades off at this point.

I've said it a thousand times before, and I'll say it again....unless these characters are published again, Pre-Unity and other Valiant will never achieve it's true potential as back issues.

I 100% agree with Zeph's post.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

I am strictly talking about valiant keys and not commons.By 2010 most of these early pre-unity keys will be about 18 years old.

The prices for graded 9.8 keys will definitley be on the rise whether they republish the characters or not.The quality of writing and stories with the low print runs to me assure a upsurge in price.

Says who? There's nothing to support this, and, in fact, evidence that suggests quite the opposite currently. Don't believe me? What's a 9.8 CEAR sell for now? $1500?

How about a 9.8 Harb #1?

Mag 0 was about 8900 on the print run with only 20 or less 9.8's.That's a ridiculously low 9.8 %......

It's FARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR too soon to make anything of the CGC census reports, except for only the most submitted books (ie, Hulk #181.) This is ESPECIALLY true of niche market books like Valiant. Heck, it took a good ten YEARS for PCGS and NGC to have a REAL idea of population in grade.

Demand does drive a market but so does rarity.

No, it doesn't. Rarity is only a factor when demand is present. Otherwise, rarity means nothing.

[depluto]

Even EC is showing its age, etc., etc.

Dude, that's why I always read your posts. Either you're preaching to the choir or you really know your *SQUEE* (probably both), but that's a great post.

[jcdenton]

....when older collectors die off, the fans of certain niche markets die off as well, and those niche markets suffer.

The same may be said of Valiant, though those days are decades off at this point.

Damn! Good thing Dino is only 20 years old.

[224gideon]

Zwh- I think demand and rarity both can drive markets not separatley but togther.

For instance tmnt#1....What drives that particular book into the stratosphere?Yes it is a book in demand but more for the rarity than for the actual content.I read and collected those books when i was a kid and they were cool to read but the explosive value had come from the low print run and the fact it was already a fairly established title.

Demand is important for long term growth but i think your overstating that importance.To me the valiant keys are similar to the early issues of tmnt.
The exception is those books are over 20 years old and getting harder to find in investment grades every year.

Also i never stated that the valiant keys would double or triple in price.Butin 5 years a 20% price bump should be realistic.

Also how many people are collecting valiants right now for the content?What about the investment potential.Zeph i think your under estimating the potential.Just because valiant books are seeing the price drop a little doesn't mean that is a long-term trend.Every market has it's ups and downs.

After the high of 04 for prices in graded keys(valiants)naturally the price will cool off only to build a base again and eventually rise up again.Take oil for instance.After every high the price hasdropped and then gone back up.Has the demand changed in the oil market when the oil went
down?
NO!!Markets have a life of there own and the highs and lows are important to watch for.

That is a consistent aspect in any market where there is speculation be it comic books or silver or wheat!

You buy when it's a low and sell when it's a high!!

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Zwh- I think demand and rarity both can drive markets not separatley but togther.

No, you're missing the point. You're equating demand and rarity, as if they WERE equal. They're not.

Without demand, rarity means nothing. Without rarity, demand can exist quite comfortably. YES, rarity may AFFECT demand, but it's not necessary for there to BE demand...witness X-Men #1....this book, with 8 million copies in print, STILL sells for 25 cents or more, an ASTONISHING figure considering books with 1/100th the print run sometimes struggle to sell for 25 cents.

For instance tmnt#1....What drives that particular book into the stratosphere?Yes it is a book in demand but more for the rarity than for the actual content.I read and collected those books when i was a kid and they were cool to read but the explosive value had come from the low print run and the fact it was already a fairly established title.

Um. No. TMNT #1 is popular because the CHARACTERS are popular. There are HUNDREDS and HUNDREDS of books printed at or near the same time as TMNT #1, with comparable, or even lesser, print runs....and they're pretty much worthless.

So, no, TMNT is in demand because of what it represents: the first appearance of a MASSIVELY popular franchise...that it's genuinely rare simply ADDS to the bottom line, but it doesn't determine it.

Demand is important for long term growth but i think your overstating that importance.

It is not possible to "overstate" the importance of the concept of DEMAND in ANY market.

Let me say that again, so that it's clear: it is IMpossible to OVERstate the importance of the concept of DEMAND in ANY market.

Without demand, it doesn't matter if there are only 10, 5, 2, or 1. Without demand, the item is worthless.

Rarity need not be present for markets to function.

Demand MUST be present for markets to function.

Sorry, but this is one of the foundations of economics.

"Demand" = 'the desire to obtain a good or service, combined with the ability to purchase it.'

To me the valiant keys are similar to the early issues of tmnt.
The exception is those books are over 20 years old and getting harder to find in investment grades every year.

Valiant? Over 20 years? Um.

Also i never stated that the valiant keys would double or triple in price.Butin 5 years a 20% price bump should be realistic.

Who said you did....? But, for the record, 20% isn't a bad forecast, and is even a decent interest rate in this economy.

Also how many people are collecting valiants right now for the content?What about the investment potential.Zeph i think your under estimating the potential.Just because valiant books are seeing the price drop a little doesn't mean that is a long-term trend.Every market has it's ups and downs.

Any investor has to intimately understand the market in which they invest, or they are wasting their time and their money. I am underestimating nothing, I am acknowledging HISTORY.

Valiant books aren't 'seeing the price drop a little', they lost 75-95% of their peak value from mid 1993. Since then, they stayed at their bottom levels until the last 2-3 years, then slowly regained some of the amazing ground they lost. Currently, they're playing rollercoaster, graded or not.

And for the record..the Valiant 'market' is far too young to have had upS and downS. 14 years is too soon to really establish 'trends' for Valiant. It's pretty much only had ONE up and ONE down so far.

After the high of 04 for prices in graded keys(valiants)naturally the price will cool off only to build a base again and eventually rise up again.Take oil for instance.After every high the price hasdropped and then gone back up.Has the demand changed in the oil market when the oil went
down?
NO!!Markets have a life of there own and the highs and lows are important to watch for.

No one is disputing this. What IS being disputed is the assertion that 'valiants have nowhere to go but up'....THAT '(insert investment here) has nowhere to go but up' has been the clarion cry of the eventually bankrupted for decades in all markets.

In short, anyone who believes that ANY market 'can only go up' doesn't understand what he/she is doing.

I will, however, take this moment to state that comparing a commodity like oil to back issue comics is ludicrous.

That is a consistent aspect in any market where there is speculation be it comic books or silver or wheat!

You buy when it's a low and sell when it's a high!!

Um.

Ok.

[224gideon]

Equating that comics and oil are the same is not ludicrous simply because they are driven by what?PEOPLE AND THEIR CHOICES!

Demand is not what is driving the oil market it is specualtion a word most valiant fans know about!!That's what sank the ship in the 90's. the price of Valiant comics can sink and not go up....That's always psosible in a market with speculation and demand and rarity.

It wan't the demand in the early 80's that saw gold and silver reach to unparrelled heights than sink like the titanic.

Was that supply and demand in action?nNO!!
Speculation sunk that topped out market just as it did to valiant comics in the early 90's.

These two examples are similar but of course not the same!

I have invested in commodities and made some handsome profits so i think i have a understanding of markets.

Anything that you can chart whether it's comics or gold react the same when the price finds a bottom it starts to build towards a top.

When it reaches a top it will scale down again and then start the process all over again!!

To me demand and rarity are close to being the same although i agree that demand is MORE improtant.

Zeph this has been fun and entertaining to go on with this thread!!

[400yrs]

Equating that comics and oil are the same is not ludicrous simply because they are driven by what?PEOPLE AND THEIR CHOICES!

Uhhhh..... You are equating something that is nearly a necessity to something that is a luxury item. So that IS a horrible comparison.

Demand is not what is driving the oil market it is specualtion a word most valiant fans know about!!That's what sank the ship in the 90's. the price of Valiant comics can sink and not go up....That's always psosible in a market with speculation and demand and rarity.

When it reaches a top it will scale down again and then start the process all over again!!

Which is why the books won't be climbing as you say within the next 3 years.

To me demand and rarity are close to being the same although i agree that demand is MORE improtant.

Check a dictionary. I'm sure you will find that the definitions are indeed different.

[224gideon]

WRONG MR. YEARS!!mARKETS ALL REACT VIRTUALLY THE SAME WHETHER IT'S A LUXURY ITEM OR A COMMODITY!

I will use a differnet exampLe namely the collectible coin market which had record highs for graded coins in the mid eighties bottomed out around the last few years and now are seeing a upsurge again!WHY?Is it rarity or demand?Did the demand go down?these coins were already rare and heavily speculated on hence the bottom dropping out.What has changed fromthe eighties to now for coins to have another upsurge?Economy one. and a underperforming stockmarket two!There was always a demand for these rare coins so what gives?SPECULATION WILL KILL A MARKET!!

For valiants to have a price surge it may take more than 3 years or less....
that's something that is harder to predict!But rest assured if this is the bottom the price can go down further but if we see prices level off then a consistent bottom has been formed now it's time to wait to see what will happen and how it will take to from new highs!

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Equating that comics and oil are the same is not ludicrous simply because they are driven by what?PEOPLE AND THEIR CHOICES!

Um.

Ok, let me go slowly.

Comparing oil to comics is like comparing a car to a can of beans.

Both have metal, so they must be the same thing...right?

That's as far as the analogy goes, however.

One is a commodity upon which the entire engine of commerce and most of civilization has come to be driven by....

...the other is an ephemeral piece of entertainment that may or may not have collector demand in the future.

That 'demand' drives them both, and that they are therefore analagous is like saying gasoline and your dad are the same thing...hey, they both drive the car, right?

Demand is not what is driving the oil market it is specualtion

Yeah, because you know, there's no current demand on oil, right?

Without demand, speculation means nothing. Speculation is simply an anticipation of FUTURE demand.

Duh.

a word most valiant fans know about!!That's what sank the ship in the 90's. the price of Valiant comics can sink and not go up....That's always psosible in a market with speculation and demand and rarity.

It wan't the demand in the early 80's that saw gold and silver reach to unparrelled heights than sink like the titanic.

Um. Ok.

Was that supply and demand in action?nNO!!

Um..yes, it was.

Speculation sunk that topped out market just as it did to valiant comics in the early 90's.

Gold, when it was legalized for private ownership again in 1973, was worth about $50-$60 an ounce. Now, it is worth around the $425 mark. Its highest price ever was $850 an ounce. Using straight dollars, it's at half of its all time high, 25 YEARS ago! It's NEVER even come CLOSE to its all time high, ESPECIALLY when adjusted for inflation. So...at what point do you say 'ok, fine, this particular market has not done well at all from historical highs'...

...and more importantly, realize that Valiant comics could do that same? Or do you think 25 years is 'too short a time' for the investment?

These two examples are similar but of course not the same!

About as similar as the examples *I* gave.

I have invested in commodities and made some handsome profits so i think i have a understanding of markets.

Apparently, you don't. This entire post betrays that. But, until now, no one said you didn't have an understanding of markets.

Anything that you can chart whether it's comics or gold react the same when the price finds a bottom it starts to build towards a top.

Or, of course, it finds a new and improved lower bottom. Remember the market crash of 1929? Funny, by early 1930, the Dow had ALMOST gained back all its losses on that fateful day in October...

...it was the long slow slide into oblivion in 1931-32 that REALLY caused the Great Depression.

When it reaches a top it will scale down again and then start the process all over again!!

What a VASTLY, VASTLY oversimplified...and incorrect...explanation of market cycles.

To me demand and rarity are close to being the same although i agree that demand is MORE improtant.

I'm sorry, 224, but you're simply wrong. Without demand, rarity is meaningless. It doesn't matter if there's only ONE of something, if no one wants it, it is WORTHLESS.

Zeph this has been fun and entertaining to go on with this thread!!

Well, that's nice.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

WRONG MR. YEARS!!mARKETS ALL REACT VIRTUALLY THE SAME WHETHER IT'S A LUXURY ITEM OR A COMMODITY!

Um.

Ok, it's becoming apparent to me that no amount of education will remedy this, so I give.

I will use a differnet exampLe namely the collectible coin market which had record highs for graded coins in the mid eighties bottomed out around the last few years and now are seeing a upsurge again!WHY?Is it rarity or demand?

Demand.

Rarity without demand means nothing.

Did the demand go down?

Yes.

these coins were already rare and heavily speculated on hence the bottom dropping out.

Um. You really don't know much about the graded coin market and its history, do you?

Define 'rare' as it relates to coins. Define 'bottom dropping out' as it relates to rare coins.

What has changed fromthe eighties to now for coins to have another upsurge?

Demand.

Economy one. and a underperforming stockmarket two!There was always a demand for these rare coins so what gives?

Um, no.

Demand lessened because people realized that the COMMON and LOW GRADE uncircs (MS60-63) were all over the place, and the prices they were having to pay from dealers (pre-internet, mind!) was not worth it to them.

And define 'there was always a demand...'

What kind of demand? Static? Or fluctuating?

A major collector of coins dies....demand changes. A lot of new people get interested in coins...demand changes. People lose interest in coins....demand changes.

Again, it goes back to the 'define "rare" as it relates to coins' question.

SPECULATION WILL KILL A MARKET!!

Not if you corner said market. But that's a story for another thread.

For valiants to have a price surge it may take more than 3 years or less....
that's something that is harder to predict!

Well, duh.

But for Valiants to achieve their full potential, the characters must be RECOGNIZABLY PUBLISHED.

But rest assured if this is the bottom the price can go down further but if we see prices level off then a consistent bottom has been formed now it's time to wait to see what will happen and how it will take to from new highs!

My bottom is consistent.....the consistency of marshmallows.

[x-omatic]

Law of Suppy and Demand is very basic.

If suppy is constant, like the print run of a book, the only factor that will effect the price is how many people are competing for the same thing.

Oil prices are driven by demand. It is indexed and demand to suppy is charted. When demand is going up faster than suppy, the price will increase.

[whetteon]

I just wanted to add that oil is a consumable commidity where when you use it, it's gone forever. I think comics are not only non-neccessity but non-consumable (unless zwh is eating his books). These two markets would act very different from each other. A better market to compare comics to would be diamonds, gold and coins. All these things have intrinstic (sp?) value, are non-neccessities and non-consumable. In fact, what does gold do for our society instead of just looking pretty? Any redemable qualities other then jewerly?

[Dr. Phil Seleski]

I just wanted to add that oil is a consumable commidity where when you use it, it's gone forever. I think comics are not only non-neccessity but non-consumable (unless zwh is eating his books). These two markets would act very different from each other. A better market to compare comics to would be diamonds, gold and coins. All these things have intrinstic (sp?) value, are non-neccessities and non-consumable. In fact, what does gold do for our society instead of just looking pretty? Any redemable qualities other then jewerly?

I'm no scientist but I think gold has a lot of practical uses. It makes a very good conductor from what I remember. But if it has no value then I'd be more then happy to accept gold donations. Bricks preferable.