How long til VEI gets 5% market share?

[ManofTheAtom]

Well, MOTA, you hoped that this thread would get a lot of replies and it certainly has. Unfortunately, just about none of them have been on topic.

As a little frame of reference, this is about what VEI would need to do, assuming similar market conditions when they launch, to reach 5%:

In October 2006, approximately 6.1 million units were sold in the Diamond Top 300 (Source: www.cbgxtra.com), 5% of that is 305,000. So VEI would need about 21 titles selling 15K each to reach that. They have a long road ahead of them.

Back on topic: Realistically, I'd say never. 2% is a more realistic goal. I just picked up an old Wizard from 1993 when VALIANT was near its height. They clocked in at a whopping 6% of the comic market. Not exactly staggering. I can't see DNV getting to 5% market share in comics. That would take too many different titles being put out each month and selling a helluva lot of those books.

Could VEI reach 5% if they published 42 titles that sell 7,500 copies?

They could do 21 ongoing series with two issues a month, lol

[BrianT]

Back on topic: Realistically, I'd say never. 2% is a more realistic goal. I just picked up an old Wizard from 1993 when VALIANT was near its height. They clocked in at a whopping 6% of the comic market. Not exactly staggering. I can't see DNV getting to 5% market share in comics. That would take too many different titles being put out each month and selling a helluva lot of those books.

You're right that it's not realistic. I'm kinda looking at it at a best case scenario type deal. Although there is a big difference between the market now and then: books aren't doing multi-million copy print runs. I think Spider-man #1, after all printings were counted, did something like 7 million copies, that's more than the entire month of October 2006 from one book. Daredevil was selling in the 90Ks and was considered for cancellation, that's a Top 10 book these days. Granted, it is much harder to make any kind of quick (or gradual) impact in the industry today.

And while 21 titles selling 15K each sounds impossible, it looks a little easier when you consider it takes 7 books at 40K to hit 5%. Still a tremendous feat (especially considering no non-Big Two book currently sells 40K or more), but it's a little easier on the eyes.

[ManofTheAtom]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

[Thomas Crown]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

They can't do 5,000 copies that won't make them anything. I called up the Qubecor and Previews to find out printing costs and distribution numbers and they loose about 600.00 per run at 5000 copies. If they can move about 10,000 of each issue then you are looking at a profit margin of $4500 an issue.

[ManofTheAtom]

5,000 tends to be a realistic number nowadays.

It's what the Mile High Comics guy suggested Shooter aim for with Daring and it's as much as Future Comics' best-selling title, Deathmask, sold.

VEI may need a minimum of 10,000 copies to make a profit, but they won't publish that much in their first year. The first year they're going to loose money, like any business, so they should have a realistic goal of how much they might sell, which could very well be no more than 5,000 copies, a number that's bound to increase or decrease.

[Thomas Crown]

5,000 tends to be a realistic number nowadays.

It's what the Mile High Comics guy suggested Shooter aim for with Daring and it's as much as Future Comics' best-selling title, Deathmask, sold.

VEI may need a minimum of 10,000 copies to make a profit, but they won't publish that much in their first year. The first year they're going to loose money, like any business, so they should have a realistic goal of how much they might sell, which could very well be no more than 5,000 copies, a number that's bound to increase or decrease.

You are defiantly right on that one "The first year they're going to loose money, like any business".

I actually think the boys at Valiant need to be a little more Innovative to beat the other players in the game. I also think that they can do it but they need to really brainstorm and do something ground breaking in the industry. Bob Layton had the right idea with cutting out previews and mailing out straight to the stores, but the big thing in my mind is they need to make a real effort to get Shooter back.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Back on topic: Realistically, I'd say never. 2% is a more realistic goal. I just picked up an old Wizard from 1993 when VALIANT was near its height. They clocked in at a whopping 6% of the comic market. Not exactly staggering. I can't see DNV getting to 5% market share in comics. That would take too many different titles being put out each month and selling a helluva lot of those books.

You're right that it's not realistic. I'm kinda looking at it at a best case scenario type deal. Although there is a big difference between the market now and then: books aren't doing multi-million copy print runs. I think Spider-man #1, after all printings were counted, did something like 7 million copies,

Spiderman #1 had an initial print-run of 1.7 million copies, and an additional second printing of 300,000, pushing it a bit over 2 million.



The only book to hit that mark was X-Men #1, which had over 8 million copies printed with all variations.

that's more than the entire month of October 2006 from one book. Daredevil was selling in the 90Ks and was considered for cancellation, that's a Top 10 book these days. Granted, it is much harder to make any kind of quick (or gradual) impact in the industry today.

And while 21 titles selling 15K each sounds impossible, it looks a little easier when you consider it takes 7 books at 40K to hit 5%. Still a tremendous feat (especially considering no non-Big Two book currently sells 40K or more), but it's a little easier on the eyes.

[ManofTheAtom]

One thing they could do is give away the first issue of a comic on a CD for free as a promotion at arcades, Internet cafe's, comic book stores, and places that potential buyers might frequent.

[BrianT]

Spiderman #1 had an initial print-run of 1.7 million copies, and an additional second printing of 300,000, pushing it a bit over 2 million.



The only book to hit that mark was X-Men #1, which had over 8 million copies printed with all variations.

Ah thanks. I knew something was up there and that Spider-man #1 was over a million.

[BrianT]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

#1 You have to factor in that Future partially self distributed, so its Diamond sales do not make up all of their orders.

#2 If VEI doesn't have a better initial launch than 5K, forget it. There's no reason they should only pull 5K. Nostaglia and current name creators should give it no less than 10K and I would even venture to say more. that's why I posted 21 titles at 15K because I think 15K is achievable. I would compare a Valiant return more to properties like Red Sonja, Battlestar Gallactica and Army of Darkness, than Future. Future was all new concepts from creators past their prime. And they had poor marketing. I, at least, never heard of them until I saw Metallix #1 on the stands.

[Brother J]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

#1 You have to factor in that Future partially self distributed, so its Diamond sales do not make up all of their orders.

#2 If VEI doesn't have a better initial launch than 5K, forget it. There's no reason they should only pull 5K. Nostaglia and current name creators should give it no less than 10K and I would even venture to say more. that's why I posted 21 titles at 15K because I think 15K is achievable. I would compare a VALIANT return more to properties like Red Sonja, Battlestar Gallactica and Army of Darkness, than Future. Future was all new concepts from creators past their prime. And they had poor marketing. I, at least, never heard of them until I saw Metallix #1 on the stands.

If Zoom Suit #1 can sell 20,000 copies, then I don't see why a new VALIANT couldn't do as well with some good marketing (even if the members of this board buy half of them! )

[ManofTheAtom]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

#1 You have to factor in that Future partially self distributed, so its Diamond sales do not make up all of their orders.

#2 If VEI doesn't have a better initial launch than 5K, forget it. There's no reason they should only pull 5K. Nostaglia and current name creators should give it no less than 10K and I would even venture to say more. that's why I posted 21 titles at 15K because I think 15K is achievable. I would compare a VALIANT return more to properties like Red Sonja, Battlestar Gallactica and Army of Darkness, than Future. Future was all new concepts from creators past their prime. And they had poor marketing. I, at least, never heard of them until I saw Metallix #1 on the stands.

Keep in mind that the most titles that VALIANT published at one time was 18. 21 is three more titles that VALIANT ever saw at its prime in a much healthier market.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

#1 You have to factor in that Future partially self distributed, so its Diamond sales do not make up all of their orders.

#2 If VEI doesn't have a better initial launch than 5K, forget it. There's no reason they should only pull 5K. Nostaglia and current name creators should give it no less than 10K and I would even venture to say more. that's why I posted 21 titles at 15K because I think 15K is achievable. I would compare a VALIANT return more to properties like Red Sonja, Battlestar Gallactica and Army of Darkness, than Future. Future was all new concepts from creators past their prime. And they had poor marketing. I, at least, never heard of them until I saw Metallix #1 on the stands.

If Zoom Suit #1 can sell 20,000 copies, then I don't see why a new VALIANT couldn't do as well with some good marketing (even if the members of this board buy half of them! )

He jokes, but it's a good idea....many projects have succeeded through the rabidity of the hardcore fan base (that's us), and gone on to achieve great success.

[UnknownTales]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

I agree with mike. Between 5-7 thousand per month. Their first title, maybe X-0, will have a splash effect, and will probably sell around 20k. It will then drop 50% to 10k for the second issue and settle to 7k for the remainder of its limited run. Their best option is a series of mini's so there are several #1's per year. That will help boost the overall sales of the niche product.

[UnknownTales]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

They can't do 5,000 copies that won't make them anything. I called up the Qubecor and Previews to find out printing costs and distribution numbers and they loose about 600.00 per run at 5000 copies. If they can move about 10,000 of each issue then you are looking at a profit margin of $4500 an issue.

Where are you getting your profit margins? You have no idea what the artists are being paid per page and who's been contracted. Did you figure in start-up costs, the purchase price of the properties, and the lawyer fees from the trademark suit?

Even if you don't figure in the start-up stuff. You need to know the price per page for each contributor to figure out the 600.00 loss per month.

[Escaflown4]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

I agree with mike. Between 5-7 thousand per month. Their first title, maybe X-0, will have a splash effect, and will probably sell around 20k. It will then drop 50% to 10k for the second issue and settle to 7k for the remainder of its limited run. Their best option is a series of mini's so there are several #1's per year. That will help boost the overall sales of the niche product.

If VEI can produce good stories like those on par with the Pre-Unity era, then there's really no need to produce the titles in mini's. People will flock to it as the word spread and VEI can just continue the titles as monthly. Maybe what VEI really needs is to buddy up with Wizard and let them hype the crap out of it. "Has anyone notice that the new Valiants are shooting up in value?"

[myron]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

I agree with mike. Between 5-7 thousand per month. Their first title, maybe X-0, will have a splash effect, and will probably sell around 20k. It will then drop 50% to 10k for the second issue and settle to 7k for the remainder of its limited run. Their best option is a series of mini's so there are several #1's per year. That will help boost the overall sales of the niche product.

If VEI can produce good stories like those on par with the Pre-Unity era, then there's really no need to produce the titles in mini's. People will flock to it as the word spread and VEI can just continue the titles as monthly. Maybe what VEI really needs is to buddy up with Wizard and let them hype the crap out of it. "Has anyone notice that the new Valiants are shooting up in value?"

...nice to see you posting again Escaflown...


trying to extrapolate something like this??? You guys are nuts...if wishes and buts were candies and nuts, everyday would be hanukkah  

[Escaflown4]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

I agree with mike. Between 5-7 thousand per month. Their first title, maybe X-0, will have a splash effect, and will probably sell around 20k. It will then drop 50% to 10k for the second issue and settle to 7k for the remainder of its limited run. Their best option is a series of mini's so there are several #1's per year. That will help boost the overall sales of the niche product.

If VEI can produce good stories like those on par with the Pre-Unity era, then there's really no need to produce the titles in mini's. People will flock to it as the word spread and VEI can just continue the titles as monthly. Maybe what VEI really needs is to buddy up with Wizard and let them hype the crap out of it. "Has anyone notice that the new Valiants are shooting up in value?"

...nice to see you posting again Escaflown...


trying to extrapolate something like this??? You guys are nuts...if wishes and buts were candies and nuts, everyday would be hanukkah  

Hehe yeah, I went thru some major changes and adjustments after I got laid off earlier this year. Already started to adjust to my new job and things are settling down, so I decided to hit up the boards to see what I missed. Glad to see you guys remember me.

[Second_Death]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

#1 You have to factor in that Future partially self distributed, so its Diamond sales do not make up all of their orders.

#2 If VEI doesn't have a better initial launch than 5K, forget it. There's no reason they should only pull 5K. Nostaglia and current name creators should give it no less than 10K and I would even venture to say more. that's why I posted 21 titles at 15K because I think 15K is achievable. I would compare a VALIANT return more to properties like Red Sonja, Battlestar Gallactica and Army of Darkness, than Future. Future was all new concepts from creators past their prime. And they had poor marketing. I, at least, never heard of them until I saw Metallix #1 on the stands.

If Zoom Suit #1 can sell 20,000 copies, then I don't see why a new VALIANT couldn't do as well with some good marketing (even if the members of this board buy half of them! )

He jokes, but it's a good idea....many projects have succeeded through the rabidity of the hardcore fan base (that's us), and gone on to achieve great success.

Very good points. With most of the hardcore fans buying multiple copies, theres no reason to believe that VE couldn't initially sustain a consistent print run of 10,000+ as long as the quality doesn't dissappoint. With good marketing and positive word-of-mouth support, even higher print runs are possible.

[slym2none]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

I agree with mike. Between 5-7 thousand per month. Their first title, maybe X-0, will have a splash effect, and will probably sell around 20k. It will then drop 50% to 10k for the second issue and settle to 7k for the remainder of its limited run. Their best option is a series of mini's so there are several #1's per year. That will help boost the overall sales of the niche product.

If VEI can produce good stories like those on par with the Pre-Unity era, then there's really no need to produce the titles in mini's. People will flock to it as the word spread and VEI can just continue the titles as monthly. Maybe what VEI really needs is to buddy up with Wizard and let them hype the crap out of it. "Has anyone notice that the new Valiants are shooting up in value?"

...nice to see you posting again Escaflown...


trying to extrapolate something like this??? You guys are nuts...if wishes and buts were candies and nuts, everyday would be hanukkah

Hehe yeah, I went thru some major changes and adjustments after I got laid off earlier this year. Already started to adjust to my new job and things are settling down, so I decided to hit up the boards to see what I missed. Glad to see you guys remember me.

Well, I won't forget shaking your hand in NYC this spring at the Big Apple show...





-slym

[BrianT]

Keep in mind that the most titles that VALIANT published at one time was 18. 21 is three more titles that VALIANT ever saw at its prime in a much healthier market.

If none of their books sell better than 15K, then they'll never reach 5%. I personally think a book like X-O can do 25-30K right out the gate. The others may take several months to build.

[Escaflown4]

I think a more realistic sales number is 5,000 copies per title. That's around what Future Comics' best selling title did.

I agree with mike. Between 5-7 thousand per month. Their first title, maybe X-0, will have a splash effect, and will probably sell around 20k. It will then drop 50% to 10k for the second issue and settle to 7k for the remainder of its limited run. Their best option is a series of mini's so there are several #1's per year. That will help boost the overall sales of the niche product.

If VEI can produce good stories like those on par with the Pre-Unity era, then there's really no need to produce the titles in mini's. People will flock to it as the word spread and VEI can just continue the titles as monthly. Maybe what VEI really needs is to buddy up with Wizard and let them hype the crap out of it. "Has anyone notice that the new Valiants are shooting up in value?"

...nice to see you posting again Escaflown...


trying to extrapolate something like this??? You guys are nuts...if wishes and buts were candies and nuts, everyday would be hanukkah

Hehe yeah, I went thru some major changes and adjustments after I got laid off earlier this year. Already started to adjust to my new job and things are settling down, so I decided to hit up the boards to see what I missed. Glad to see you guys remember me.

Well, I won't forget shaking your hand in NYC this spring at the Big Apple show...





-slym

Yup I haven't forgotten about you guys. It was great meeting you all. Unfortunately I have relocated down to VA. I'm not sure if I will get the chance to frequent the Big Apple cons like I used to.

[ManofTheAtom]

If none of their books sell better than 15K, then they'll never reach 5%. I personally think a book like X-O can do 25-30K right out the gate. The others may take several months to build.

168 Quantum & Woody 17 $2.50 Acclaim 10,900
184 Turok 4 $2.50 Acclaim 8,600
187 X-O Manowar 21 $2.50 Acclaim 8,300
207 Eternal Warriors Immortal Enemy $3.95 Acclaim 6,600
217 Magnus Robot Fighter 18 $2.50 Acclaim 6,000
218 Shadowman 20 $2.50 Acclaim 5,800
221 Troublemakers 19 $2.50 Acclaim 5,500
222 Bloodshot 16 $2.50 Acclaim 5,500
236 Concrete Jungle Legend of the Black Lion 3 $2.50 Acclaim 4,900 (it didn't come out)

What if VEI sold exactly in the same range as those numbers with the same exact number of titles? What % of the market would they reach?

How much would they reach if they sold double those numbers or double the number of titles?

[BrianT]

Maybe what VEI really needs is to buddy up with Wizard and let them hype the crap out of it. "Has anyone notice that the new Valiants are shooting up in value?"

If they have the money, they should definitely place ads in Wizard. Back in the day Wizard used to hype Valiant up big time, unfortunately, Wizard's been going through a tear lately firing long time employees, so hopefully, by the time VEI comes out, there's still some folks at Wizard that remember Valiant, so they can get some free coverage as well.

That said, I think the magazine that Valiant should really partner up with is Comics Buyers Guide. That mag is tailored to the same audience that VEi should be targeting. Long time fans and collectors.

[BrianT]

168 Quantum & Woody 17 $2.50 Acclaim 10,900
184 Turok 4 $2.50 Acclaim 8,600
187 X-O Manowar 21 $2.50 Acclaim 8,300
207 Eternal Warriors Immortal Enemy $3.95 Acclaim 6,600
217 Magnus Robot Fighter 18 $2.50 Acclaim 6,000
218 Shadowman 20 $2.50 Acclaim 5,800
221 Troublemakers 19 $2.50 Acclaim 5,500
222 Bloodshot 16 $2.50 Acclaim 5,500
236 Concrete Jungle Legend of the Black Lion 3 $2.50 Acclaim 4,900 (it didn't come out)

What if VEI sold exactly in the same range as those numbers with the same exact number of titles? What % of the market would they reach?

How much would they reach if they sold double those numbers or double the number of titles?

What you don't have a calculator?

Using Oct 2006's number of 6.1 million copies and including Concrete Jungle, they would have 1% of the market.