Top 1000 Rarest Valiant books 2012-May 2020 Maybe...

[magnus20009]

Updated to include which is the rarest incentive ratio cover for each issue - there are perhaps rarer store/convention variants. (Apologies if the "*" annoy some people. That is how I signify in my database if I have the issue in Universal CGC 9.8 - if there is no star beside an issue an your have one in Universal CGC 9.8 we should talk)

I have also added DBS' confirmed actual print runs. He put a ton of work into this and we all should thank him. Note that confirmed print runs does not mean Valiant released that many books.

[Sunlight on Snow]

I THANK YOU BOTH.

[Sunlight on Snow]

What is?

3-10 known copies - Ninjak vs the Valiant Universe #0 (NYCC Unreleased Edition)

EDIT: Ah, okay, they were supposedly destroyed. But not all of them...

http://valiantfans.com/forum/viewtopic. ... 8#p1092698

So about 3 were officially sold on eBay and some insider mentioned 10 may have survived in total?

[magnus20009]

What is?

3-10 known copies - Ninjak vs the Valiant Universe #0 (NYCC Unreleased Edition)

EDIT: Ah, okay, they were supposedly destroyed. But not all of them...

http://valiantfans.com/forum/viewtopic. ... 8#p1092698

So about 3 were officially sold on eBay and some insider mentioned 10 may have survived in total?

I know both NYCJadie and I have CGC 9.8 copies of the book.

[Sunlight on Snow]

What is?

3-10 known copies - Ninjak vs the Valiant Universe #0 (NYCC Unreleased Edition)

EDIT: Ah, okay, they were supposedly destroyed. But not all of them...

http://valiantfans.com/forum/viewtopic. ... 8#p1092698

So about 3 were officially sold on eBay and some insider mentioned 10 may have survived in total?

I know both NYCJadie and I have CGC 9.8 copies of the book.

It it a b/w preview? What does it look like; another photo cover?

[magnus20009]

It is a regular comic. You can see this cover if you scroll down to the end of the first post in DBS thread http://www.valiantfans.com/forum/viewt ... =1&t=53401

Yup it is a photo cover. There were more than one cover for this book.

[Sunlight on Snow]

So it's the Ninjak #0 (not Ninjak Vs. The Valiant Universe #0)

I've been wondering the whole time what that #0 issue would look like???

[TheeBaldMoose]

What is?

3-10 known copies - Ninjak vs the Valiant Universe #0 (NYCC Unreleased Edition)

EDIT: Ah, okay, they were supposedly destroyed. But not all of them...

http://valiantfans.com/forum/viewtopic. ... 8#p1092698

So about 3 were officially sold on eBay and some insider mentioned 10 may have survived in total?

I know both NYCJadie and I have CGC 9.8 copies of the book.

It it a b/w preview? What does it look like; another photo cover?

I'll always be a proponent of this book, one that is missing from this list. The X-O Manowar (2017) Humble Bundle Unsigned version. There are Two Universal and two Signature Series books slabbed through CGC. I know I purchased mine a few years back from the Valiant Comics Fans Buy/Sell page on FB. From the conversations I can remember having, there were 10 that were pulled...

[Juki]

Does anyone have a feel for the print numbers for Bloodshot Reborn 14 Cover I 1:120 Incv Linewide Lemire?

I know that some people have said that some of these Linewide comics seem to have more printed that they should have allowed.

Would there be a lot more of the Bloodshot Reborn 1:120 Linewide than the 1:50 standard variant?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[dino]

Does anyone have a feel for the print numbers for Bloodshot Reborn 14 Cover I 1:120 Incv Linewide Lemire?

I know that some people have said that some of these Linewide comics seem to have more printed that they should have allowed.

Would there be a lot more of the Bloodshot Reborn 1:120 Linewide than the 1:50 standard variant?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

600 copies for the linewide. 500 copies for the 1:50

[corey]

Does anyone have a feel for the print numbers for Bloodshot Reborn 14 Cover I 1:120 Incv Linewide Lemire?

I know that some people have said that some of these Linewide comics seem to have more printed that they should have allowed.

Would there be a lot more of the Bloodshot Reborn 1:120 Linewide than the 1:50 standard variant?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

600 copies for the linewide. 500 copies for the 1:50

Nice

[Juki]

Thanks Dino.... I , for one, am eagerly awaiting the launch of Bad Idea. The art that has been revealed looks tremendous... I bet the writing will be great as well.
Congrats, and good luck! I hope it turns into a tv/movie farm!

As far as the Linewides go... people seem to assume that there are a lot of Harbinger #8 1:120s and even more Bloodshot Reborn #10 1:100s. I just don’t see a lot of these in the marketplace.

But, nobody talks about Bloodshot Reborn #14 1:120. Which I think is cool because of the first appearance of the “Bloodshot Squad.” Not to mention the throwback chromium cover featuring Bloodsquirt.

[DirtbagSailor]

600 copies for the linewide. 500 copies for the 1:50

Added to the “CONFIRMED List” and thank you!

[magnus20009]

600 copies for the linewide. 500 copies for the 1:50

Dino this is fascinating information. Using Bloodshot 14 as an example it would be wonderful if a few more pieces of data could be sought to understand how variants worked at Valiant.

Based on the really crude and imperfect comichron method far fewer copies of the 1:50 are predicted than than the linewide variant but the print run was only 100 less. It has always been assumed that this calculation method under-estimated copies printed but perhaps for linewide books this is the opposite.

By Comichron data:
179 copies of Bloodshot Reborn # 14 1:50 Rarest
448 copies of Bloodshot Reborn # 14 1:20
895 Bloodshot Reborn # 14 1:10
637 copies of Bloodshot Reborn # 14 1:120 LW
7674 copies of all other covers (ie A, B, C, D)

June 2016 Sales of Valiant books as measured by Comichron
4001 Ad 2 13,506
Divinity II 3 10,318
Bloodshot Reborn 14 9,833
X-O Manowar 47 9,485
4001 Ad Bloodshot 1 8,214
Rai 14 6,790
A&A 4 6,448
Ninjak 16 6,419
Wrath of the Eternal Warrior 8 5,987

What would be really interesting to know is if a book like Bloodshot 14 1:50 had 500 copies printed what would be normal for the amount of the print run that would be distributed to retailers based on orders, kept back by VEI for damages, kept back for promos giveaways and what if anything would be destroyed.

Also if the 1:50 cover had 500 copies printed what would be the runs for the 1:20 and 1:10 covers? Is it conceivable that one of the A,B,C or D cover could be as rare as the 1:10 book.

Really looking forward to the Bad Idea books.

[dino]

Thanks Dino.... I , for one, am eagerly awaiting the launch of Bad Idea. The art that has been revealed looks tremendous... I bet the writing will be great as well.
Congrats, and good luck! I hope it turns into a tv/movie farm!

As far as the Linewides go... people seem to assume that there are a lot of Harbinger #8 1:120s and even more Bloodshot Reborn #10 1:100s. I just don’t see a lot of these in the marketplace.

But, nobody talks about Bloodshot Reborn #14 1:120. Which I think is cool because of the first appearance of the “Bloodshot Squad.” Not to mention the throwback chromium cover featuring Bloodsquirt.

Thanks man! Very excited about what we're building at Bad Idea. Such a natural extension of what we were doing at VEI and very likely of the tone of post Harbinger Wars 2 stories we would have told.

I'd have to check the purchase order but my memory is that there were approx. 180 qualifying copies of the Harbinger #8 1:125. This was early enough that I was still making sure we printed 1,000 copies of any variant but I can't remember if I made an exception on this one. I do remember thinking about making an exception. My guess is we printed 500 of these. In addition to the 180 we would have sent comps to creators, given copies to staff and gifted copies to partners.

Checked the purchase order and we printed 500 copies of the Bloodshot Reborn #10 linewide.

Love the bloodshot squad. Had plans for their own book after Salvation.

That Bloodsquirt chromium cover came in without my knowing it was commissioned. Jeff did it for Warren who wanted to make fun of my love of chromium lol. I got the last laugh though when we used it as a cover!

[Juki]

Thanks Dino.... I , for one, am eagerly awaiting the launch of Bad Idea. The art that has been revealed looks tremendous... I bet the writing will be great as well.
Congrats, and good luck! I hope it turns into a tv/movie farm!

As far as the Linewides go... people seem to assume that there are a lot of Harbinger #8 1:120s and even more Bloodshot Reborn #10 1:100s. I just don’t see a lot of these in the marketplace.

But, nobody talks about Bloodshot Reborn #14 1:120. Which I think is cool because of the first appearance of the “Bloodshot Squad.” Not to mention the throwback chromium cover featuring Bloodsquirt.

That Bloodsquirt chromium cover came in without my knowing it was commissioned. Jeff did it for Warren who wanted to make fun of my love of chromium lol. I got the last laugh though when we used it as a cover!

That is funny. Sounds almost like shades of VH1 Solar 10.

[dino]

600 copies for the linewide. 500 copies for the 1:50

Dino this is fascinating information. Using Bloodshot 14 as an example it would be wonderful if a few more pieces of data could be sought to understand how variants worked at Valiant.

Based on the really crude and imperfect comichron method far fewer copies of the 1:50 are predicted than than the linewide variant but the print run was only 100 less. It has always been assumed that this calculation method under-estimated copies printed but perhaps for linewide books this is the opposite.

By Comichron data:
179 copies of Bloodshot Reborn # 14 1:50 Rarest
448 copies of Bloodshot Reborn # 14 1:20
895 Bloodshot Reborn # 14 1:10
637 copies of Bloodshot Reborn # 14 1:120 LW
7674 copies of all other covers (ie A, B, C, D)

June 2016 Sales of Valiant books as measured by Comichron
4001 Ad 2 13,506
Divinity II 3 10,318
Bloodshot Reborn 14 9,833
X-O Manowar 47 9,485
4001 Ad Bloodshot 1 8,214
Rai 14 6,790
A&A 4 6,448
Ninjak 16 6,419
Wrath of the Eternal Warrior 8 5,987

What would be really interesting to know is if a book like Bloodshot 14 1:50 had 500 copies printed what would be normal for the amount of the print run that would be distributed to retailers based on orders, kept back by VEI for damages, kept back for promos giveaways and what if anything would be destroyed.

Also if the 1:50 cover had 500 copies printed what would be the runs for the 1:20 and 1:10 covers? Is it conceivable that one of the A,B,C or D cover could be as rare as the 1:10 book.

Really looking forward to the Bad Idea books.

Love Comicchron! They provide a great service but they are indeed imperfect. They are backing into their numbers from an index. Which makes the numbers inaccurate across the board. I recall the Faith mini series numbers that were reported were less than half the numbers we had received as orders. Even more problematic is that the inaccuracy is not consistent so the chart doesn't help make comparisons either.

When using reported numbers to estimate ratio variants you have to factor in that orders aren't spread across stores equally. If there are 10 stores ordering 1,000 total copies of a book that has a 1:100 variant it's very possible (and frustratingly likely lol) that 9 stores will order 99 copies and 1 store will order 109 copies which means just one variant was earned.

While copies ordered (or earned) is the primary factor there are many other factors that determine a print run and those factors change with each situation. In this specific case of the Bloodshot Reborn 14 1:50 cover, orders at the time of printing qualified for just over 200 copies. Diamond requested 350 copies anticipating orders increasing in the days to follow, re-orders, damages etc. We printed 500 anticipating even more orders than Diamond, additional damages, comps, gifts etc. The excess was housed secretly near the offices for about a year after which time they were securely destroyed.

Print run on the 1:20 was 750 and 500 on the 1:10 (qualifying orders at the time of printing were 20% higher than the 1:50. This percentage is usually larger but here the book was doing very well, the Bloodshot Island storyline had strong anticipation from retailers, the concept for the 1:50 cover was garnering attention and many retailers were ordering enough to qualify. The print runs for the shelf covers on this issue were all significantly higher than the variants. I suppose it's mathematically possible for a shelf cover to be rarer than a variant but that never happened at VEI.

Hope this helps!

Super excited for everyone to see what we're building at Bad Idea! Thanks for support and for spreading the word!!

[magnus20009]

When using reported numbers to estimate ratio variants you have to factor in that orders aren't spread across stores equally. If there are 10 stores ordering 1,000 total copies of a book that has a 1:100 variant it's very possible (and frustratingly likely lol) that 9 stores will order 99 copies and 1 store will order 109 copies which means just one variant was earned.

While copies ordered (or earned) is the primary factor there are many other factors that determine a print run and those factors change with each situation. In this specific case of the Bloodshot Reborn 14 1:50 cover, orders at the time of printing qualified for just over 200 copies. Diamond requested 350 copies anticipating orders increasing in the days to follow, re-orders, damages etc. We printed 500 anticipating even more orders than Diamond, additional damages, comps, gifts etc. The excess was housed secretly near the offices for about a year after which time they were securely destroyed.

Print run on the 1:20 was 750 and 500 on the 1:10 (qualifying orders at the time of printing were 20% higher than the 1:50. This percentage is usually larger but here the book was doing very well, the Bloodshot Island storyline had strong anticipation from retailers, the concept for the 1:50 cover was garnering attention and many retailers were ordering enough to qualify. The print runs for the shelf covers on this issue were all significantly higher than the variants. I suppose it's mathematically possible for a shelf cover to be rarer than a variant but that never happened at VEI.

Hope this helps!

Super excited for everyone to see what we're building at Bad Idea! Thanks for support and for spreading the word!!

This is really really helpful. Completely realise that the Comichron data is estimates and has errors but it is the best data easily available. Also realise that stores do not all order all the copies in the amounts that would maximise the number of variants earned.

A few follow-up questions if you are willing.

1) If the 1:50 had 500 copies printed, the 1:20 had 750 copies printed why does the 1:10 only have 500 copies printed? If a store ordered 100 copies wouldn’t they get 2 of the 1:50, 5 of the 1:20 and 10 of the 1:10?

2) You mentioned the 1:50 cover just over 200 copies were earned based on orders prior to printing but 500 copies were printed roughly what percentage of the run would be destroyed after giving books to Diamond, additional damages, comps, gifts etc? (Also what does Diamond do with the extra books they receive that are not earned or needed as damages?)

3) How off are Comichron sales figures? If just over 200 of the 1:50 were earned at printing time but Comichron had 9,833 for all Bloodshot 14 covers sold based on their estimates they are obviously under-estimating sales.

The information you have been providing is super helpful. As you may have noticed from the boards I am trying to chase all the incentive covers down.

Really looking forward to Bad Idea and getting to read some new stories.

[dino]

When using reported numbers to estimate ratio variants you have to factor in that orders aren't spread across stores equally. If there are 10 stores ordering 1,000 total copies of a book that has a 1:100 variant it's very possible (and frustratingly likely lol) that 9 stores will order 99 copies and 1 store will order 109 copies which means just one variant was earned.

While copies ordered (or earned) is the primary factor there are many other factors that determine a print run and those factors change with each situation. In this specific case of the Bloodshot Reborn 14 1:50 cover, orders at the time of printing qualified for just over 200 copies. Diamond requested 350 copies anticipating orders increasing in the days to follow, re-orders, damages etc. We printed 500 anticipating even more orders than Diamond, additional damages, comps, gifts etc. The excess was housed secretly near the offices for about a year after which time they were securely destroyed.

Print run on the 1:20 was 750 and 500 on the 1:10 (qualifying orders at the time of printing were 20% higher than the 1:50. This percentage is usually larger but here the book was doing very well, the Bloodshot Island storyline had strong anticipation from retailers, the concept for the 1:50 cover was garnering attention and many retailers were ordering enough to qualify. The print runs for the shelf covers on this issue were all significantly higher than the variants. I suppose it's mathematically possible for a shelf cover to be rarer than a variant but that never happened at VEI.

Hope this helps!

Super excited for everyone to see what we're building at Bad Idea! Thanks for support and for spreading the word!!

This is really really helpful. Completely realise that the Comichron data is estimates and has errors but it is the best data easily available. Also realise that stores do not all order all the copies in the amounts that would maximise the number of variants earned.

A few follow-up questions if you are willing.

1) If the 1:50 had 500 copies printed, the 1:20 had 750 copies printed why does the 1:10 only have 500 copies printed? If a store ordered 100 copies wouldn’t they get 2 of the 1:50, 5 of the 1:20 and 10 of the 1:10?

2) You mentioned the 1:50 cover just over 200 copies were earned based on orders prior to printing but 500 copies were printed roughly what percentage of the run would be destroyed after giving books to Diamond, additional damages, comps, gifts etc? (Also what does Diamond do with the extra books they receive that are not earned or needed as damages?)

3) How off are Comichron sales figures? If just over 200 of the 1:50 were earned at printing time but Comichron had 9,833 for all Bloodshot 14 covers sold based on their estimates they are obviously under-estimating sales.

The information you have been providing is super helpful. As you may have noticed from the boards I am trying to chase all the incentive covers down.

Really looking forward to Bad Idea and getting to read some new stories.

1. Typo on my end! 500 for the 1:20 (same as 1:50) and 750 for the 1:10

2. Depends on the book. Increased orders, re-orders, damage quantities etc all play a big part. Diamond sends them back to us. Atom! tracked that like a hawk.

3. Sometimes off just a few percent, sometimes off by a multiple. It varies greatly.

[Juki]

With the VEI destruction of extra copies of variants after a year or so ...I wonder about the rarity of books that are still in existence (# of copies not destroyed) of key books that really went under the radar at the time. For example, Harbinger #3 1:20 (1st Livewire) and Shadowman 1:50 and 1:20s (1st Punk Mambo).

Harbinger #3 1:20 was a very early book. Although we don’t know the number printed... it was an early book when, routinely, a minimum of 1000 copies were printed. It is known that the 1:20 variant issue before it, Harbinger #2 1:20, had 2000 issues printed. So, I speculate that Harbinger #3 1:20 had between 1000-2000 issues printed.

We know that Shadowman #13 1:50 had 400 printed (Shadowman #13 1:20 print run is unknown).

Since comic book shops didn’t know that these were key books at the time... they likely didn’t INTENTIONALLY meet the demand for many incentive variants. In other words... they thought these were just “common books” in the run.

Harbinger #2 1:20 First Darpan .................(2000 issues printed)
Harbinger #3 1:20 First Livewire................(unknown.... likely 1000+)
Shadowman #13 1:20 First Punk Mambo.......(unknown)
Shadowman #13 1:50 First Punk Mambo.......(400 issues printed)

So, my thought on the above comics is “How many still exist?” Is it possible that many of the 400 print run of Shadowman #13 1:50 Davis were destroyed because many comic shops did not meet incentive demand (for example, ordering 40 copies instead of the 50 copies to earn a variant)?

I would guess that there are way more copies still in existence (after destroying extras at VEI) of Harbinger #2 1:20 (first Darpan) than Harbinger #3 1:20 (first Livewire) since comic shops knew about Darpan’s coming first appearance ( likely intentionally meeting incentives).There was no hype for Harbinger issue #3 having a 1st appearance to alert shops to meet incentives (Livewire was totally re-invented in this issue).

Shadowman #13 was really underrated ... so who knows how many of the “extra unearned” 400 printed issues were destroyed. Is it possible that VEI destroyed 100 or more? I doubt it... but then again... I give them kudos for, and find it surprising that VEI destroyed any variant “extras” at all.

Even though Harbinger #3 1:20 probably had 1000+ printed.... Is it possible that VEI destroyed so many copies that Harbinger #3 1:20 is as rare as Shadowman #13 1:50? It would seem unlikely... but you don’t see any Harbinger #3 1:20s for sale at all. Where are they all at?

Any thoughts?

[magnus20009]

1. Typo on my end! 500 for the 1:20 (same as 1:50) and 750 for the 1:10

2. Depends on the book. Increased orders, re-orders, damage quantities etc all play a big part. Diamond sends them back to us. Atom! tracked that like a hawk.

3. Sometimes off just a few percent, sometimes off by a multiple. It varies greatly.

As always thanks for the information. Number 2 is what interests me the most. It really was good of VEI to be keeping this part of the incentive system honest. So many other publishers do not.

With the VEI destruction of extra copies of variants after a year or so ...I wonder about the rarity of books that are still in existence (# of copies not destroyed) of key books that really went under the radar at the time. For example, Harbinger #3 1:20 (1st Livewire) and Shadowman 1:50 and 1:20s (1st Punk Mambo).

Even though Harbinger #3 1:20 probably had 1000+ printed.... Is it possible that VEI destroyed so many copies that Harbinger #3 1:20 is as rare as Shadowman #13 1:50? It would seem unlikely... but you don’t see any Harbinger #3 1:20s for sale at all. Where are they all at?

Any thoughts?

Using the Comichron imperfect sales numbers the sales for the two books were:

Harbinger 3 15,482
Shadowman 13 9,403

So presumably far more Harbinger 3 1:20 were earned than Shadowman 13 1:50. Using the rough calculation in the first post in this thread

176 Shadowman (2012) # 13 1:50 Rarest x
440 Shadowman (2012) # 13 1:20
738 Harbinger # 3 1:20 Rarest x

Another piece of data to look at is given they are two of the more expensive valiant books is to see how many have been submitted to CGC as generally speaking more expensive books are submitted more frequently.

85th most graded VEI book - Harbinger 3 1:20 has had 25 copies graded by CGC (15 9.8, 8 9.6 and 2 9.4)
143rd most graded VEI Shadowman 13 1:50 has had 15 universal copies graded by CGC (11 9.8 and 4 9.6)
224th most graded VEI The Shadowman 13 1:20 has had 10 universal copies graded by CGC (4 9.8, 4 9.6, 1 9.4 and 1 9.2)

I am surprised how few copies of Harbinger 3 1:20 have been graded given that Livewire has been one of the bigger characters in VEI and the book in 9.8 sells for a decent amount.

The only sales on Greg’s list since 2012 when the book was released are:
9.8 - Variant Cover $375 Nov 21, 2018
9.8 - Variant Edition $500 Oct 7, 2018
9.8 - Variant Edition $470 Jul 8, 2018
9.8 - Variant Edition $400 Apr 26, 2018

I had been looking for this book in 9.8 for quite a while and can now report one more sale as I finally got my copy on July 24, 2020 – yes two weeks ago for $410

By comparison, the Shadowman 13 1:50 has come up for sale more frequently and has sold for

9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $625 Feb 6, 2020
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $550 Dec 5, 2019
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $690 May 3, 2018
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $521 Apr 15, 2018
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $600 Mar 4, 2018
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $715 Jan 29, 2018
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $685 Nov 20, 2017
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $685 Aug 14, 2017
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $516 May 15, 2017
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $516 Nov 29, 2015

Of books all the VEI book have more than 1 or 2 sales in CGC 9.8 I believe that Shadowman 13 1:50 is the most expensive Valiant book to buy in CGC 9.8 other than the X-O Manowar (2017) #1 1:500.

So why are more Harbinger 3 1:20 books not changing hands? Do less exist than we think? Are collectors hording them in their own collection never to see the light of day? Is it a hard book to get in high grade so few people have copies raw/graded that are worth selling (would command a decent price)?

I am just happy to finally have one in my collection. It was the last “big” VEI book I was looking for and it took quite some time to find one for sale.

[Juki]

1. Typo on my end! 500 for the 1:20 (same as 1:50) and 750 for the 1:10

2. Depends on the book. Increased orders, re-orders, damage quantities etc all play a big part. Diamond sends them back to us. Atom! tracked that like a hawk.

3. Sometimes off just a few percent, sometimes off by a multiple. It varies greatly.

As always thanks for the information. Number 2 is what interests me the most. It really was good of VEI to be keeping this part of the incentive system honest. So many other publishers do not.

With the VEI destruction of extra copies of variants after a year or so ...I wonder about the rarity of books that are still in existence (# of copies not destroyed) of key books that really went under the radar at the time. For example, Harbinger #3 1:20 (1st Livewire) and Shadowman 1:50 and 1:20s (1st Punk Mambo).

Even though Harbinger #3 1:20 probably had 1000+ printed.... Is it possible that VEI destroyed so many copies that Harbinger #3 1:20 is as rare as Shadowman #13 1:50? It would seem unlikely... but you don’t see any Harbinger #3 1:20s for sale at all. Where are they all at?

Any thoughts?

Using the Comichron imperfect sales numbers the sales for the two books were:

Harbinger 3 15,482
Shadowman 13 9,403

So presumably far more Harbinger 3 1:20 were earned than Shadowman 13 1:50. Using the rough calculation in the first post in this thread

176 Shadowman (2012) # 13 1:50 Rarest x
440 Shadowman (2012) # 13 1:20
738 Harbinger # 3 1:20 Rarest x

Another piece of data to look at is given they are two of the more expensive valiant books is to see how many have been submitted to CGC as generally speaking more expensive books are submitted more frequently.

85th most graded VEI book - Harbinger 3 1:20 has had 25 copies graded by CGC (15 9.8, 8 9.6 and 2 9.4)
143rd most graded VEI Shadowman 13 1:50 has had 15 universal copies graded by CGC (11 9.8 and 4 9.6)
224th most graded VEI The Shadowman 13 1:20 has had 10 universal copies graded by CGC (4 9.8, 4 9.6, 1 9.4 and 1 9.2)

I am surprised how few copies of Harbinger 3 1:20 have been graded given that Livewire has been one of the bigger characters in VEI and the book in 9.8 sells for a decent amount.

The only sales on Greg’s list since 2012 when the book was released are:
9.8 - Variant Cover $375 Nov 21, 2018
9.8 - Variant Edition $500 Oct 7, 2018
9.8 - Variant Edition $470 Jul 8, 2018
9.8 - Variant Edition $400 Apr 26, 2018

I had been looking for this book in 9.8 for quite a while and can now report one more sale as I finally got my copy on July 24, 2020 – yes two weeks ago for $410

By comparison, the Shadowman 13 1:50 has come up for sale more frequently and has sold for

9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $625 Feb 6, 2020
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $550 Dec 5, 2019
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $690 May 3, 2018
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $521 Apr 15, 2018
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $600 Mar 4, 2018
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $715 Jan 29, 2018
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $685 Nov 20, 2017
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $685 Aug 14, 2017
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $516 May 15, 2017
9.8 - Davis Variant Cover $516 Nov 29, 2015

Of books all the VEI book have more than 1 or 2 sales in CGC 9.8 I believe that Shadowman 13 1:50 is the most expensive Valiant book to buy in CGC 9.8 other than the X-O Manowar (2017) #1 1:500.

So why are more Harbinger 3 1:20 books not changing hands? Do less exist than we think? Are collectors hording them in their own collection never to see the light of day? Is it a hard book to get in high grade so few people have copies raw/graded that are worth selling (would command a decent price)?

I am just happy to finally have one in my collection. It was the last “big” VEI book I was looking for and it took quite some time to find one for sale.

magnus20009, Congrats on scoring the 9.8 Harbinger #3 1:20! That comic is not easily found.

Out of curiosity... how do your Comichron numbers for Harbinger #2 1:20 compare to Harbinger #3 1:20?

[magnus20009]

magnus20009, Congrats on scoring the 9.8 Harbinger #3 1:20! That comic is not easily found.

Out of curiosity... how do your Comichron numbers for Harbinger #2 1:20 compare to Harbinger #3 1:20?

Chomichron estimated sales for each issue
Harbinger 2 17,239
Harbinger 3 15,482

Estimated copies of the 1:20s based on the calculation in post one

821 Harbinger # 2 1:20
738 Harbinger # 3 1:20

[Juki]

magnus20009, Congrats on scoring the 9.8 Harbinger #3 1:20! That comic is not easily found.

Out of curiosity... how do your Comichron numbers for Harbinger #2 1:20 compare to Harbinger #3 1:20?

Chomichron estimated sales for each issue
Harbinger 2 17,239
Harbinger 3 15,482

Estimated copies of the 1:20s based on the calculation in post one

821 Harbinger # 2 1:20
738 Harbinger # 3 1:20

Ok, based on the above numbers I am thinking that probably 2000 were printed for Harbinger #3 1:20. So, the real question is how many were destroyed? .... and that we may never know.

You would think that this comic would change hands a lot more if there are 1000-2000 out in the wild. But, that just doesn’t happen.

[magnus20009]

magnus20009, Congrats on scoring the 9.8 Harbinger #3 1:20! That comic is not easily found.

Out of curiosity... how do your Comichron numbers for Harbinger #2 1:20 compare to Harbinger #3 1:20?

Chomichron estimated sales for each issue
Harbinger 2 17,239
Harbinger 3 15,482

Estimated copies of the 1:20s based on the calculation in post one

821 Harbinger # 2 1:20
738 Harbinger # 3 1:20

Ok, based on the above numbers I am thinking that probably 2000 were printed for Harbinger #3 1:20. So, the real question is how many were destroyed? .... and that we may never know.

You would think that this comic would change hands a lot more if there are 1000-2000 out in the wild. But, that just doesn’t happen.

If there were 1,000 to 2,000 in the wild there would be more copies of it then many of the B and C covers of books in the past couple years where sales figures are below 4,000.

I do not think there are close to that many Harbinger 2 and 2 1:20s in the wild. Any modern comic with 1,000 to 2,000 copies is not hard to find. I suspect in many cases the numbers "earned" in the Comichron formula actually over estimate the copies in the wild as retailers do not order in whole incentive lot numbers.

They way I think about it is for books that have fewer "earned" copies by the Comichron method, i.e. Shadowman (2012) # 13 1:50 the formula predicts 176 copies (although likely less than this were "earned by retailers as most retailers would not have ordered in 50 copy lots) the number in the wild is likely a bit higher than this. But for books like Harbinger 3 1:20 it is the opposite

Shadowman 13 1:50
Print run - destroyed - damages + comps + earned copies > 176 predicted

but for books that have much larger predicted copies I actually think less copies are around than in the wild. i.e Harbinger 3 1:20

Harbinger 3 1:20
Print run - destroyed - damages + comps + earned copies < 738

I could be off base but I assume comps to artists and partners is likely a fairly constant number. So for books with a smaller number of "earned" books this comp number is larger than the over-estimation caused in the Comichron formula assuming all retailers order in perfect lot size to maximize variants. For books with a higher number of "earned" books I assume the comp number is smaller than the over-estimation caused in the Comichron formula assuming all retailers order in perfect lot size to maximize variants.

Just making number up now for illustrative purposes to show my thinking - these are not number I have any insight into for this example. If the total number of comps to artists and partners is 50 books, damages are 25% of books “earned” and the real number of books “earned” since retailers do not all order in whole lot number to maximize ratios it 75% of the Comichron formula calculated number

Ie. Shadowman 13
Actual "earned" 132 = (176 predicted x 75%)
Comps 50
Damages 33 = (176 x 75% x 25%)
Printed 400
Destroyed 185 = (remainder of 400 -132 -50 -33)
Copies in the wild = Actual Earned + Comps = 182 > 176 predicted

Ie. Harbinger 3
Actual "earned" 554 = (738 predicted x 75%)
Comps 50
Damages 139 = (738 x 75% x 25%)
Printed 1000
Destroyed 257 = (remainder of 1000 -554 -50 -139)
Copies in the wild = Actual Earned + Comps = 604 < 738 predicted

I hope this makes sense.