The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by greg »

StarBrand wrote:
greg wrote:I'll put in a comment about the newsstand version of this book. Sleeper investment... if it can be found at all.
Mile High doesn't have it listed even as having been in stock at all, so that tells me something. Plus I've never run across a listing of it, which also tells me something since I've been watching that book so closely over the years. It makes sense that there would be one though. Do you have a copy, or have you seen one advertised?
I don't think I knew it existed until last week: https://www.cgccomics.com/boards/topic/ ... ewsstands/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by IMJ »

It's funny how publishers will have these seemingly random comics creep in their that were sold to places like Barnes 'n Noble. You blink and it's like "oh that one made it to newsstand, huh?".

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by greg »

IMJ wrote:It's funny how publishers will have these seemingly random comics creep in their that were sold to places like Barnes 'n Noble. You blink and it's like "oh that one made it to newsstand, huh?".
I'm a big fan of books that have a period of time when they were "nothing special" before they eventually become something. The newsstands as a whole (starting about 1986) have been overlooked for quite a while, particularly major books like Amazing Spider-Man #300 (1988), and the closer you get to 2017, the weirder some of those newsstands get.

Other books that were overlooked for a while were some of the later printings of 1990s big books like Man of Steel #18 (4th printing, 5th printing), since they had no value for at least 10 years before suddenly being a nice value.

There are a few books that are still overlooked, for some reason or other, such as the first regular Elfquest book (Elfquest #2 from 1978 with the $1.00 cover). There are reprints that are $1.25 and $1.50, but the first printings $1.00 cover are overlooked gems for sure... now 40+ years old. People don't realize #2 was first. Elfquest #1 (1979) was a reprint that came out later (also pretty tough as $1.00, rather than $1.25 or $1.50 later printings).

I'm also a huge fan of Mystery Men (the movie), which is a minor cult favorite, but I think it was about 20 years too early. People hadn't gotten their "serious superhero teams" yet (Avengers, Justice League), so it was too early to do a parody of them... I think it would be a much bigger (comedy) hit today. Anyway, the Mystery Men were from a 1987 comic... Flaming Carrot #16. It's usually about $1, if you can find one. Not many printed by Renegade Press. That would be $250 each if the exact same movie was being made/released today.

Anyway, it's a good call when speculation works out with new comics, but there are a lot more losers than winners. Personally, I'm fascinated by the loser comics, years later, that suddenly get discovered and jump up to serious value. Those are the needles in the haystack.

Congrats to anyone who stocked up on Ultimate Fallout #4 when it was new, regular or the limited variant, and we know a few people definitely did right from the start. $25 variant books that become $1,000 have increased 40 times. $4 regular books that become $100 books have increased 25 times.

But if anyone stocked up on newsstands... they may have the biggest win when it all settles. I could see the newsstand becoming multiples of the regular edition. When a $4 book becomes a $400 book, after being nothing special for years... well, that's really something.

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by IMJ »

greg wrote:
IMJ wrote:It's funny how publishers will have these seemingly random comics creep in their that were sold to places like Barnes 'n Noble. You blink and it's like "oh that one made it to newsstand, huh?".
I'm a big fan of books that have a period of time when they were "nothing special" before they eventually become something. The newsstands as a whole (starting about 1986) have been overlooked for quite a while, particularly major books like Amazing Spider-Man #300 (1988), and the closer you get to 2017, the weirder some of those newsstands get.

Other books that were overlooked for a while were some of the later printings of 1990s big books like Man of Steel #18 (4th printing, 5th printing), since they had no value for at least 10 years before suddenly being a nice value.

There are a few books that are still overlooked, for some reason or other, such as the first regular Elfquest book (Elfquest #2 from 1978 with the $1.00 cover). There are reprints that are $1.25 and $1.50, but the first printings $1.00 cover are overlooked gems for sure... now 40+ years old. People don't realize #2 was first. Elfquest #1 (1979) was a reprint that came out later (also pretty tough as $1.00, rather than $1.25 or $1.50 later printings).

I'm also a huge fan of Mystery Men (the movie), which is a minor cult favorite, but I think it was about 20 years too early. People hadn't gotten their "serious superhero teams" yet (Avengers, Justice League), so it was too early to do a parody of them... I think it would be a much bigger (comedy) hit today. Anyway, the Mystery Men were from a 1987 comic... Flaming Carrot #16. It's usually about $1, if you can find one. Not many printed by Renegade Press. That would be $250 each if the exact same movie was being made/released today.

Anyway, it's a good call when speculation works out with new comics, but there are a lot more losers than winners. Personally, I'm fascinated by the loser comics, years later, that suddenly get discovered and jump up to serious value. Those are the needles in the haystack.

Congrats to anyone who stocked up on Ultimate Fallout #4 when it was new, regular or the limited variant, and we know a few people definitely did right from the start. $25 variant books that become $1,000 have increased 40 times. $4 regular books that become $100 books have increased 25 times.

But if anyone stocked up on newsstands... they may have the biggest win when it all settles. I could see the newsstand becoming multiples of the regular edition. When a $4 book becomes a $400 book, after being nothing special for years... well, that's really something.
I know exactly what you mean. I've spent a lot of time building my Iron Man run in both direct and newsstand editions, punctuated by MJ variants when I find them acceptably priced and in decent enough shape.

And I actually annotate "ns" on my collection inventory to designate a newsstand that I have in my longboxes. I also try to acknowlege the "flip" in my record keeping, so going back far enough I don't designate "Newsstand" and instead point out "DM". But then on my inventories around the time of the flip you'll see my records stop designating "DM" and start designating "NS".

I really believe that when the market comes back to "authentic comics" over "engineered variants" that newsstand hunting is going to blow up.

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by greg »

IMJ wrote:I really believe that when the market comes back to "authentic comics" over "engineered variants" that newsstand hunting is going to blow up.
It will be interesting to see where the market settles on newsstands.
We'll have pretty good data (eventually) on the ratios in the back issue market, so will a newsstand that is about 10% vs. 90% direct edition be about twice as valuable, or three times, or nine times... or maybe even a minor premium like 25%... we just don't know yet. That's kinda what makes it fun.

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by nycjadie »

I have some anecdotal evidence on collecting my Uncanny run. Early days, newsstands far outweighed direct versions. Really hard to find some of those early Claremont/Byrne books in direct high grade. Later that fllipped, and directs were far, far more plentiful, and those folks who like high grades steered clear of newsstand books. It’s therefore more difficult to get high grade newsstands. Then much later,newsstands became very difficult to find at all. It makes it fun. I collect newsstands for Uncanny, Valiant, and Star Wars.

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by greg »

nycjadie wrote:I have some anecdotal evidence on collecting my Uncanny run. Early days, newsstands far outweighed direct versions. Really hard to find some of those early Claremont/Byrne books in direct high grade. Later that fllipped, and directs were far, far more plentiful, and those folks who like high grades steered clear of newsstand books. It’s therefore more difficult to get high grade newsstands. Then much later,newsstands became very difficult to find at all. It makes it fun. I collect newsstands for Uncanny, Valiant, and Star Wars.
When does the "flip" happen for the Uncanny run? I had been thinking it's 50/50 around 1984 to 1986ish, and probably completely flipped by 1988.

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by nycjadie »

I’m thinking off the top of my head that 1983 was the last great year for directs, and the flip was late 1990a for very rare newsstands.

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by greg »

nycjadie wrote:I’m thinking off the top of my head that 1983 was the last great year for directs, and the flip was late 1990a for very rare newsstands.
That matches, what year(s) would you say direct/newsstand is 50/50?

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by StarBrand »

Fascinating conversation. It never occurred to me there was ever a time period direct editions are harder to find in high grade than newsstand editions. Why would this be? Comic book store owners (I was one when the direct market began) and their customers had plenty of opportunity to protect as many copies of comics by immediately bagging and boarding them as they wanted to. Are you saying print runs of newsstands we’re so much higher early on in the direct market era that despite the normal wear and tear newsstands endured there were so many more printed than direct editions they are easier to find in high grade?
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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by greg »

There are two factors... Both are "generally understood", but neither is perfectly understood.

Factor 1: The number printed and not destroyed by returns.
Factor 2: The percentage of Factor 1 surviving today in high grade.

As far as Factor 1 goes, this is generally correct:
Image

As far as Factor 2 goes, it is generally believed that Direct Editions survived in high grade more often since comic shops sold nice comics and bags/boards to people who (seriously?) collected comics. Newsstands and grocery stores and convenience stores sold comics in whatever condition to people who evidently didn't care much about condition and might only casually collect them (or toss them out with magazines and newspapers when they were finished reading).

So, it's possible that Direct Edition was 10% of copies printed in 1980 and Newsstand was 90%, but if only 10% as many newsstands survived, then they could be about 50/50 today.

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by StarBrand »

Thanks for that analysis, Greg. Extremely interesting. I hope to get some time to study what’s on the open market and slabbed from the early Direct Market years.
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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by nycjadie »

I think the early diresct versions are harder to find in high grade simply Becca there are fewer of them. Proportionally, the newsstand are just harder to find in high grade I think, but some years there are more or less of them.

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by nycjadie »

greg wrote:
nycjadie wrote:I’m thinking off the top of my head that 1983 was the last great year for directs, and the flip was late 1990a for very rare newsstands.
That matches, what year(s) would you say direct/newsstand is 50/50?
I found 1984 was the year that I found them to be about even, and that tracks with my sales on eBay. I had tons and tons of Unanny, picking out the best direct and newsstand copies. Probably 10 of each of some of the 79s and 80s copies. 1983 and proper I could command quite a premium on direct copies. After that, newsstand in high grade, then after 2000 the newsstand copies commanded a slight premium.

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by Elveen »

StarB I’m gonna give you big props.

You were pounding the Miles drum for a long long time.

It will be interesting to see the market for this book next May (let’s say), but I’ll always associate you with this book.

I hope you did REAL WELL the last little bit on the sale front.

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by StarBrand »

Thanks Big E! At least I got something right. Lol
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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by greg »

18 months later... there's this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHzuHo80U2M

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by Talarius »

Re: Miles Morales video game,
Great trailer! At first glance, he looks several years older than his Spider-verse teen version. Could make for some interesting story-telling opportunities. I don’t follow the Spider-Man books these days; how old is Miles in the current books, roughly?
greg wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 3:11:25 pm
I'm also a huge fan of Mystery Men (the movie), which is a minor cult favorite, but I think it was about 20 years too early. People hadn't gotten their "serious superhero teams" yet (Avengers, Justice League), so it was too early to do a parody of them... I think it would be a much bigger (comedy) hit today. Anyway, the Mystery Men were from a 1987 comic... Flaming Carrot #16. It's usually about $1, if you can find one. Not many printed by Renegade Press. That would be $250 each if the exact same movie was being made/released today.
I’ve got a copy of Flaming Carrot #16. I haven’t followed comic book values in a long time, but I was always disappointed by the lack of interest in that book, even after the movie came out.

Also: Elfquest #2 was the first issue!?? That’s super-weird! Headed to Wikipedia with my fingers crossed the story of that snafu is explained.
UPDATE: aaaand I’m back. Very interesting story. I wonder if their original publisher had done a better job/not folded if they would have had the same career trajectory.

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by greg »

Talarius wrote:
Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:19:07 pm
Also: Elfquest #2 was the first issue!?? That’s super-weird! Headed to Wikipedia with my fingers crossed the story of that snafu is explained.
UPDATE: aaaand I’m back. Very interesting story. I wonder if their original publisher had done a better job/not folded if they would have had the same career trajectory.
For those who don't care to do the research... Elfquest started in Fantasy Quarterly #1 (from Independent Publishers Syndicate).
Image

The story continued in Elfquest #2 (the $1.00 cover is the 1st printing from WaRP Graphics). (WaRP is Wendy and Richard Pini)

Later, most likely after people kept asking "where is Elfquest #1?" they reprinted the story from Fantasy Quarterly #1 as Elfquest #1 from WaRP Graphics (also a $1.00 cover for the first printing).

So, the first book with the title "Elfquest" was Elfquest #2. :thumb:

Lots of copies of Elfquest #1 and #2 are available on Ebay, etc., but it's pretty clear the $1.00 first printings are scarce and usually well-worn condition.

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by depluto »

:banana:

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by depluto »

I think I might move a few of these, finally. Probably a good idea to get them graded. I grabbed a few from storage (4 first prints, 1 each of the seconds) and they all look pretty close to perfect.

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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by Trenton Sy »

Starbrand for the big big win here - glad I was in early and bought more when he was talking up the potential - the prices are insane right now - I think this is the millennials version of Wolverine and will keep cooking for the long haul


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Re: The Market on Ultimate Fallout 4

Post by nycjadie »

A 9.8 is now in the $1100 category! Bananas!

I paid $197 in 2016 for mine. Happy with that upswing!

Thank you Starbrand!


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