X-O 1 1:500 Print Run Speculation

[kjjohanson]

NM/MT became VF/NM:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/X-O-Manowar-1-C ... SwhQhY0aTu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[agent_graves]

I seen one today displayed behind the counter at a lcs that just opened up their second store. It looked pretty damn good to me as far as condition, and they only asking for $400

If they let me make two payments, I might jump on it...

[OhioValiantNut]

I seen one today displayed behind the counter at a lcs that just opened up their second store. It looked pretty damn good to me as far as condition, and they only asking for $400

If they let me make two payments, I might jump on it...

I might just do the same thing!

[agent_graves]

I seen one today displayed behind the counter at a lcs that just opened up their second store. It looked pretty damn good to me as far as condition, and they only asking for $400

If they let me make two payments, I might jump on it...

I might just do the same thing!

[mkb28]

I saw a slabbed 9.8 1:500 at Planet ComiCon in Kansas City, MO. The Seller was asking $1,500.00.

[greg]

There were 10 new CGC slabs added to the census this week.

Current totals:
CGC 9.8 = 11 (10 universal, 1 signature)
CGC 9.6 = 4
CGC 9.4 = 1
TOTAL = 16

Last week there were 6 total slabs.

[apacseller]

I'll just chime in, as these numbers will make it look like the 9.8s are a little stacked. I submitted two of them and the ones I submitted had never been touched without gloves (since printing), were barely handled at all, no visible flaws, and were super well packaged on the way to CGC. I still think these are a hard 9.8 and just wanted to say that the two I submitted were choice copies.

[FormerReader]

There were 10 new CGC slabs added to the census this week.

Current totals:
CGC 9.8 = 11 (10 universal, 1 signature)
CGC 9.6 = 4
CGC 9.4 = 1
TOTAL = 16

Last week there were 6 total slabs.

Shocking.

I'm on the side that believes this book will be more common in 9.8 than has been suggested.

[nycjadie]

I sent one in that was received this week. Verified only. I'm expecting a 9.8, but you never know.

I will note that a 9.8 sold on eBay yesterday at auction for $860, which is slightly less than I anticipated. I threw in the $850 bid, figuring if it would be a relatively good buy for a confirmed 9.8. I was wrong. That appears to be the perceived value, as of today (or less if you consider that only 2 people were willing to pay that much, including myself, and another person who now has one).

[michael]

I sent one in that was received this week. Verified only. I'm expecting a 9.8, but you never know.

I will note that a 9.8 sold on eBay yesterday at auction for $860, which is slightly less than I anticipated. I threw in the $850 bid, figuring if it would be a relatively good buy for a confirmed 9.8. I was wrong. That appears to be the perceived value, as of today (or less if you consider that only 2 people were willing to pay that much, including myself, and another person who now has one).

yah, I saw that one. I was surprised it dropped almost 60% from the $1500 a few weeks ago. I was expecting closer to $1200. Maybe it's an outliner.

[corey]

I thought between 900 -1100 since u can buy 2 copies on there right now for 1150 and 1200 for the SS 9.8

[Serpentor]

This book gives the appearance of being too plentiful. Either there is an initial mass dumping of books following release and the supply will disappear into collections soon, or this is going to drop in value. All IMO, of course

[greg]

This book gives the appearance of being too plentiful. Either there is an initial mass dumping of books following release and the supply will disappear into collections soon, or this is going to drop in value. All IMO, of course

This is actually pretty common for collectibles as they are released.

Let's be stereotypical for the sake of the argument.

Who owns these collectibles?

Pros = Retailers who want to sell high, but ultimately need to recover their costs
Moneybags = Gotta-have-it-now collectors who need one and view non-ownership as worse than overpaying
Whinypants = Wait-it-out collectors who need one but view overpaying as worse than non-ownership
Luckyducks = Collectors who obtain one significantly cheaper than the Moneybags
Nannybooboos = Already have one and might only buy another if they can pay less than before

So, when relatively expensive collectibles are first released, only Pros and Moneybags are involved for a while.
Pros sell to Moneybags and that lowers the numbers of Pros and Moneybags in the market.
Pros move on and Moneybags become Nannybooboos.

There might be a couple Luckyducks at first, but only because they're lucky by definition.
Whinypants are everywhere, usually still mad about the pre-order prices.

Everything that has happened so far was always going to happen. There are no surprises at first.

When there are more Pros than Moneybags, the price drops. That's where we are right now on X-O #1 1:500 Brushed Metal.

When the Pros miss finding Moneybags, they lower the price hoping to tempt the Whinypants.
As the price starts falling, some of the Whinypants hope to become Luckyducks if they wait longer.
Other Whinypants go ahead and buy so they can become Nannybooboos.

Here's where it gets fun. What happens next is hard to predict ahead of time...

When there are no more Pros, then the remaining Whinypants are stuck without one, and possibly there are even Moneybags without one. The price will rise.
As time goes by, Whinypants can also become Moneybags through frustration. At any time, new collectors can arrive and also be Moneybags or Whinypants. The price can rise higher.

However, if there are always Pros and the Moneybags are gone and all that's left are Whinypants, then many of those Whinypants are safe to try to wait longer and become Luckyducks... and the price can just keep falling.

It is actually very unusual for the price to be stable for the whole time. That would imply a perfect number were made and it would imply that Pros, Moneybags, and Whinypants all agreed on the same price. Seems unlikely.

No matter what happens, though, I think we can all agree we hate Luckyducks (unless we are one).

[DirtbagSailor]

This is actually pretty common for collectibles as they are released.

Let's be stereotypical for the sake of the argument.

Who owns these collectibles?

Pros = Retailers who want to sell high, but ultimately need to recover their costs
Moneybags = Gotta-have-it-now collectors who need one and view non-ownership as worse than overpaying
Whinypants = Wait-it-out collectors who need one but view overpaying as worse than non-ownership
Luckyducks = Collectors who obtain one significantly cheaper than the Moneybags
Nannybooboos = Already have one and might only buy another if they can pay less than before

So, when relatively expensive collectibles are first released, only Pros and Moneybags are involved for a while.
Pros sell to Moneybags and that lowers the numbers of Pros and Moneybags in the market.
Pros move on and Moneybags become Nannybooboos.

There might be a couple Luckyducks at first, but only because they're lucky by definition.
Whinypants are everywhere, usually still mad about the pre-order prices.

Everything that has happened so far was always going to happen. There are no surprises at first.

When there are more Pros than Moneybags, the price drops. That's where we are right now on X-O #1 1:500 Brushed Metal.

When the Pros miss finding Moneybags, they lower the price hoping to tempt the Whinypants.
As the price starts falling, some of the Whinypants hope to become Luckyducks if they wait longer.
Other Whinypants go ahead and buy so they can become Nannybooboos.

Here's where it gets fun. What happens next is hard to predict ahead of time...

When there are no more Pros, then the remaining Whinypants are stuck without one, and possibly there are even Moneybags without one. The price will rise.
As time goes by, Whinypants can also become Moneybags through frustration. At any time, new collectors can arrive and also be Moneybags or Whinypants. The price can rise higher.

However, if there are always Pros and the Moneybags are gone and all that's left are Whinypants, then many of those Whinypants are safe to try to wait longer and become Luckyducks... and the price can just keep falling.

It is actually very unusual for the price to be stable for the whole time. That would imply a perfect number were made and it would imply that Pros, Moneybags, and Whinypants all agreed on the same price. Seems unlikely.

No matter what happens, though, I think we can all agree we hate Luckyducks (unless we are one).

This post is awesome!

[Serpentor]

This book gives the appearance of being too plentiful. Either there is an initial mass dumping of books following release and the supply will disappear into collections soon, or this is going to drop in value. All IMO, of course

This is actually pretty common for collectibles as they are released.

Let's be stereotypical for the sake of the argument.

Who owns these collectibles?

Pros = Retailers who want to sell high, but ultimately need to recover their costs
Moneybags = Gotta-have-it-now collectors who need one and view non-ownership as worse than overpaying
Whinypants = Wait-it-out collectors who need one but view overpaying as worse than non-ownership
Luckyducks = Collectors who obtain one significantly cheaper than the Moneybags
Nannybooboos = Already have one and might only buy another if they can pay less than before

So, when relatively expensive collectibles are first released, only Pros and Moneybags are involved for a while.
Pros sell to Moneybags and that lowers the numbers of Pros and Moneybags in the market.
Pros move on and Moneybags become Nannybooboos.

There might be a couple Luckyducks at first, but only because they're lucky by definition.
Whinypants are everywhere, usually still mad about the pre-order prices.

Everything that has happened so far was always going to happen. There are no surprises at first.

When there are more Pros than Moneybags, the price drops. That's where we are right now on X-O #1 1:500 Brushed Metal.

When the Pros miss finding Moneybags, they lower the price hoping to tempt the Whinypants.
As the price starts falling, some of the Whinypants hope to become Luckyducks if they wait longer.
Other Whinypants go ahead and buy so they can become Nannybooboos.

Here's where it gets fun. What happens next is hard to predict ahead of time...

When there are no more Pros, then the remaining Whinypants are stuck without one, and possibly there are even Moneybags without one. The price will rise.
As time goes by, Whinypants can also become Moneybags through frustration. At any time, new collectors can arrive and also be Moneybags or Whinypants. The price can rise higher.

However, if there are always Pros and the Moneybags are gone and all that's left are Whinypants, then many of those Whinypants are safe to try to wait longer and become Luckyducks... and the price can just keep falling.

It is actually very unusual for the price to be stable for the whole time. That would imply a perfect number were made and it would imply that Pros, Moneybags, and Whinypants all agreed on the same price. Seems unlikely.

No matter what happens, though, I think we can all agree we hate Luckyducks (unless we are one).

Your understanding of human behavior and economics is most impressive

[greg]

My personal preference is to be a silent Whinypants, waiting so long that I accidentally become a Luckyduck decades later, and then Nannybooboo my way to hoards.
Once in a while I pretend I'm a Moneybags when I get a tax refund or something.

It's very hard for me to imagine being a Pro, since that requires selling and selling is physically painful to me... so much so that I create websites to permanently mourn my losses.

http://www.valiantcollection.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[nycjadie]

Oh, man. So true. You could see this with the recent X-O gold which were selling at $200+. Pros were abound, and moneybags were buying. The supply of moneybags ran out, but the pros needed to move, so whinypants like me jumped in to get one at $50. Then there were a few luckyducks at $45ish. I was a nannybooboo, as I wanted one raw and one 9.8, so I bought a second (luckyduck purchase).

[agent_graves]

This is actually pretty common for collectibles as they are released.

Let's be stereotypical for the sake of the argument.

Who owns these collectibles?

Pros = Retailers who want to sell high, but ultimately need to recover their costs
Moneybags = Gotta-have-it-now collectors who need one and view non-ownership as worse than overpaying
Whinypants = Wait-it-out collectors who need one but view overpaying as worse than non-ownership
Luckyducks = Collectors who obtain one significantly cheaper than the Moneybags
Nannybooboos = Already have one and might only buy another if they can pay less than before

So, when relatively expensive collectibles are first released, only Pros and Moneybags are involved for a while.
Pros sell to Moneybags and that lowers the numbers of Pros and Moneybags in the market.
Pros move on and Moneybags become Nannybooboos.

There might be a couple Luckyducks at first, but only because they're lucky by definition.
Whinypants are everywhere, usually still mad about the pre-order prices.

Everything that has happened so far was always going to happen. There are no surprises at first.

When there are more Pros than Moneybags, the price drops. That's where we are right now on X-O #1 1:500 Brushed Metal.

When the Pros miss finding Moneybags, they lower the price hoping to tempt the Whinypants.
As the price starts falling, some of the Whinypants hope to become Luckyducks if they wait longer.
Other Whinypants go ahead and buy so they can become Nannybooboos.

Here's where it gets fun. What happens next is hard to predict ahead of time...

When there are no more Pros, then the remaining Whinypants are stuck without one, and possibly there are even Moneybags without one. The price will rise.
As time goes by, Whinypants can also become Moneybags through frustration. At any time, new collectors can arrive and also be Moneybags or Whinypants. The price can rise higher.

However, if there are always Pros and the Moneybags are gone and all that's left are Whinypants, then many of those Whinypants are safe to try to wait longer and become Luckyducks... and the price can just keep falling.

It is actually very unusual for the price to be stable for the whole time. That would imply a perfect number were made and it would imply that Pros, Moneybags, and Whinypants all agreed on the same price. Seems unlikely.

No matter what happens, though, I think we can all agree we hate Luckyducks (unless we are one).

This post is awesome!

+1

[nonplayer]

I am a whineypants but have decided to not play this one.
Great conversation guys.

[jmatt]

I was a Luckyduck that sold the book to a Moneybags. But I'm not a Pro or a NannyBooBoo.

I guess that makes me an Idiot.

[FormerReader]

I'm definitely a whineypants.

[paradise]

I guess I am a Pro x3

[michael]

I was a Luckyduck that sold the book to a Moneybags. But I'm not a Pro or a NannyBooBoo.

I guess that makes me an Idiot.

This makes you a Mastermind

[kjjohanson]

I am a whinypants who, after inspection of my purchase, decided that if I kept it I was more a Moneybags than a Luckyduck, so I sent it back.

Also, Greg, you need to post this in the Most Valuable Modern Variants thread on the CGC boards.

[greg]

Also, Greg, you need to post this in the Most Valuable Modern Variants thread on the CGC boards.