Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

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greg
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Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by greg »

So, I've been downloading the sales information for Valiant comic books from Ebay for about 5 years now.

It has just reached 100,000 sales (not listings, actual completed sold items) for individual Valiant books in 5 years... so far. There are many records where a group of Valiant books were sold... and that's just dangerous to guess individual prices. There are many records where an Ebay auction says Valiant but it's actually not. About 10,000 mention CGC or CBCS or PGX, even if the books haven't been slabbed, so I throw those out. There are now about 90,000 Ebay sales records (sold with final price) since March 2013 which look like individual sales for (raw) Valiant books.

If you can decipher what book they sold and its condition, then you've got something useful. If you have lots of records for the same book, you can do a good job building a price guide.
But, identifying the book by hand, even if you could do them in 10 seconds, would take 250 hours. Those 250 hours times the pay rate of $0 per hour... and well... you get it.

Anyway, on to the data...

First of all, only the title of the Ebay item is included...
So a beautiful record looks something like this:
"X-O Manowar (1992 1st Series) #1 NM+ 9.6", sold 2013-06-13 for $25.30
... and an ugly record is:
"X-O MANOWAR #1 HI GRADE VALIANT", sold 2016-05-07 for $10.10

Now, given that the ugly record is from May 2016, we can rule out all the X-O Manowar 2017 series books... so that means X-O Manowar #1 is probably one of these:
4001 A.D.: X-O Manowar 1 Cover A Cafu
4001 A.D.: X-O Manowar 1 Cover B Jimenez
4001 A.D.: X-O Manowar 1 Cover C 1:10 Incv Char Dsn Kindt
4001 A.D.: X-O Manowar 1 Cover D 1:20 Incv Mega Cover Lee
4001 A.D.: X-O Manowar 1 Second Printing
Book of Death: The Fall of X-O Manowar (2015) 1 Cover A Nord
Book of Death: The Fall of X-O Manowar (2015) 1 Cover B Segovia
Book of Death: The Fall of X-O Manowar (2015) 1 Cover C 1:10 Incv Lee
Book of Death: The Fall of X-O Manowar (2015) 1 Cover D 1:20 Incv Bernard
Iron Man/X-O Manowar (1996) 1
X-O Manowar (1992-1996) 1 First Issue
X-O Manowar (2012 series) 1 Ribic Regular
X-O Manowar (2012 series) 1 Nord Pullbox
X-O Manowar (2012 series) 1 Aja 1:20 Variant
X-O Manowar (2012 series) 1 Djurdjevic 1:50 QR Variant
X-O Manowar (2012 series) 1 Lozzi Second Printing
X-O Manowar (2012 series) 1 Nord Third Printing
X-O Manowar (2012 series) 1 Lozzi Fourth Printing
X-O Manowar (2012 series) 1 Ribic Gold Edition
X-O Manowar (2012 series) 1 One Dollar Debut
X-O Manowar (2012 series) 1 One Dollar Debut Ed New Ptg
X-O Manowar (2012 series) 1 Dollar Debut Ed (New Ptg)
X-O Manowar (2012 series) 1 One Dollar Debut Ed 2015 Ptg Aja
X-O Manowar Annual 2016 1 Cover C 1:10 Incv Level
X-O Manowar Annual 2016 1 Cover D 1:20 Incv Dekal
X-O Manowar Annual 2016 1 Regular Edition
X-O Manowar Annual 2016 1 Cover B Carnero
X-O Manowar 25th Anniversary Special (2015) 1 Cafu 1:20 variant
X-O Manowar 25th Anniversary Special (2015) 1 Regular edition
X-O Manowar 25th Anniversary Special (2015) 1 Comixology Exclusive Variant
X-O Manowar 25th Anniversary Special (2015) 1 FSC Exclusive Variant
X-O Manowar (2012 series) Vol 1 Deluxe Hardcover
X-O Manowar/Iron Man (1996) 1
VALIANT Masters: X-O Manowar Vol. 1 (hardcover)
X-O Manowar Classic Omnibus (2015) 1 Hardcover
X-O Manowar Classic Omnibus (2015) 1 Hardcover DCBS exclusive
X-O Manowar (2012 series) Vol 1 Trade
X-O Manowar Vol 2 (1996-1998) 1
X-O Manowar Vol 2 (1996-1998) 1 FAN EDITION
X-O Manowar Vol 2 (1996-1998) 1 REVIEW
X-O Manowar Vol 2 (1996-1998) 1 VARIANT
X-O Manowar Yearbook (1995) 1


...and given that it's described as "HI GRADE" we're probably talking anywhere from FN/VF (7.0) to Mint (9.9+) in the real world.

It's likely that it's X-O #1 1992 and about a 9.0... given the sale price of $10.10, but it could just as easily be something else in a different grade worth about $10 that you could "shorten" to "X-O MANOWAR #1 HI GRADE". What if it was actually a 3M production page from X-O Manowar #1 that sold in 2016 for $10? I don't need to average that into price guide. If the sale was more recent, then there are all the X-O 2017 #1 books that it might be.

Now, that analysis took a lot more than 10 seconds, we still don't have an answer... and we're probably never going to get one since 2016 sales aren't online anymore.

"Valiant Solar #3" - now that's pretty straightforward, but sellers aren't always paying attention, so they might actually be selling Dark Horse Solar #3, Gold Key Dr. Solar #3, a statue, or some more recent cash grab.

Back on track... what do I do with all this data?

Thus far, I've just done the best I could. The price guide database currently contains 55,572 identified Ebay sales results since March 2013 through August 2017, totalling $1,286,497 (not counting anything that was recorded for CGC graded Valiant books). When I calculate the price guide value, I'm asking the database to average sales in the last 30 days, if none, then sales in the past 60 days, if none, then sales in the past 90 days, ... 150 days, 365 days, and 2 years.

Some books still don't have any record of sales in the past 2 years, but that's not surprising for very cheap books. Who would pay for an Ebay auction for one copy of Harbinger #32 (1992 series) when the cost of shipping is probably greater than the value of the book before it gets shipped? On the other hand, we still don't have any record of sales in the past 2 years for books that just haven't been for sale. The Acclaim books for Turok "No Cover Price" (Empty Souls and Tales of the Lost Land) come to mind. So, what's a fair price guide supposed to do with that?

Then, we have some older sales records way below the price that might happen today (especially if demand is still high and the book hasn't been available)... what we've seen with sudden jumps like Archer & Armstrong The 1% Gold-tinted 1:30 variant... no sales for a long time and prices under $20... then suddenly $237. At any rate, I've been working for several weeks trying to update the data... like I said earlier, there are now 90,000 sales records but the price guide only uses 55,572... and there's a good chance that hundreds of them are for the wrong book (99% accuracy still means 555 errors).

I think I'm writing/ranting in this post because I think I think it helps me to put these thoughts out there. (Feel free to comment below, but don't be upset if your idea of helping is something that I tried four years ago and I immediately reject/ignore it.) I think I'm running out of side comments... uh... anywhozullbees...

Check out what I have found for X-O Manowar #1...

If the Ebay title for a sold item includes:
"X-O Manowar", "#1", and "1992", with or without condition, the average sale price is: $19.80 (that's 197 sales)
"X-O Manowar", "#1", "1992" and "NM", the average sale price is: $21.92 (that's 117 sales)
"X-O Manowar", "#1", "1992" or "Pre-Unity", and no grade/condition the average sale price is: $17.33 (that's 123 sales)
"X-O Manowar", "#1", "1992" or "Pre-Unity", "1st app", and "NM" the average sale price is: $24.19 (that's 28 sales)
"X-O Manowar", "#1", "1992" or "Pre-Unity", "1st app", "Aric", and "NM" the average sale price is: $30.80 (that's 9 sales)

So, using the data above, should we say that X-O Manowar #1 (1992) in NM condition is worth under $20 or $30+?
Ebay buyers might find a nice X-O Manowar #1 (1992) for about $18 and other buyers will pay double that if the seller knows/shows Valiant expertise in their listing title.
...and some other Ebay buyer might see an X-O #1 in a poorly-listed auction and get it for $0.99.

Don't even get me started on Harbinger #1. It has a coupon... or doesn't... or buyer doesn't mention it... or does, but they're actually talking about Harbinger Renegade #1 with coupon... ugh.
If you thought the calculated price guide data recorded for a raw near mint X-O #1 1992 was "wide ranging" from $22 to $31, you should see what happens when you try to calculate raw near mint copies of Harbinger #1 with coupon... Sales records go from $11 to $199, even if they clarify it's 1992.

P.S. There may be some of you who think that "data" is plural (because the singular is 'datum') and that I should say "the data are" instead of "the data is", but I contend that "data" is a collective noun... like rain. There are individual rain drops which are singular so rain must be plural, too, but if you step outside and say, "These rain are cold!" then you deserve the looks you get. The data is the same way. :wink:

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by greg »

Too long; didn't read...

Calculating the prices for Valiant books is complicated even with data downloads from Ebay completed sales because "X-O Manowar #1" could be dozens of different books.







tl;dr

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by DirtbagSailor »

Your passion and efforts are most appreciated Greg. :thumb:

It has inspired me to get off my rear and work on a few projects that have been sitting for too long.

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by greg »

DirtbagSailor wrote:Your passion and efforts are most appreciated Greg. :thumb:
I appreciate the compliment, but you'll notice I'm six months behind. Sadly, this isn't the only six-months later thing I've been working on. I think I have books that still need to be shipped. :oops:

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by drmirage »

Well done sir! In Greg we trust. :D

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by TheeBaldMoose »

greg wrote:
DirtbagSailor wrote:Your passion and efforts are most appreciated Greg. :thumb:
I appreciate the compliment, but you'll notice I'm six months behind. Sadly, this isn't the only six-months later thing I've been working on. I think I have books that still need to be shipped. :oops:
Still, the passion, hard work, and dedication need to be mentioned. You do a great deal to keep this site up and running, as well as give us tools (price guide). My hat's off to you :thumb:
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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by Ricomortis »

Thank You Greg!

Everything you do has helped me reach goals on my Valiant collecting!

You have helped spread "the VALIANT word", helped unite thousands of Valiant fans, and helped those said fans in their collecting needs.

I am 100% sure that this site is responsible for the continued success of the "old" Valiant demand and popularity. Other collectors are very aware of us and the money that we spend on back issues, variants, and slabs.

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by Jrosen »

Is the guide stored on this site? Or am I just blind and can't find it.

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by greg »

Jrosen wrote:Is the guide stored on this site? Or am I just blind and can't find it.
http://www.valiantfan.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; :)

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by IMJ »

Very cool intel gathering here....

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by grendeljd »

You do a great job building & updating that price guide database, man. Thats a massive amount of data to sift through, sort & distill on a regular basis. No one can fault you for not having frequent updates completed! Last August was the last time you officially updated it according to the page - I look forward to perusing it whenever you do get to it. :thumb: :thumb:
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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by greg »

Well, no major changes to the way prices are calculated yet, but I have updated the guide with more recent data. I'm still working on recalculating. :thumb:
http://www.valiantfan.com/guide" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by greg »

A seller describes their (raw, not-in-a-slab) book in an Ebay auction as "VF/NM" and it sells for $20. Should the price guide "NM Price" be something like $25? $30?

Currently, the price guide multiplies the price ($20) times 10, then divides by the seller's grade (in this case, VF/NM is 9.0).
Then to account for shipping costs not included in the sale price, we multiply by 1.05 and add $1.
(That 1.05 plus $1 is a fun discussion on its own... maybe later.)

Doing the math, a raw book that's described as "VF/NM" (9.0) selling for $20 would calculate a NM price guide value of $24.33, rounded to $24.
If the raw book was described as "NM+" (9.6) selling for $20, the NM guide calculation would result in $23.
If the raw book doesn't have a condition described, the assumption is that it's not a great copy worth mentioning the condition, so we just estimate Very Fine (8.0).
An ungraded raw book (no condition estimate from the seller) which sells for $20 would calculate a NM guide value of $27.

If each of these three sales occurred for the same title and issue, we would average them ($24, $23, and $27) and get a NM guide value of $25, based on three sales at $20 (before shipping) at three different raw grades from (about) 8.0 to 9.6.

Should the NM price in the guide be $25? ... or should the price guide just assume that raw sales are whatever-grade-they-are and the price guide should be $20, since we have three sales at $20?
It would be much easier (and accurate) to say $20 with the justification of three recorded raw sales at $20 each, before shipping.

However, if every copy sold was described as "Very Good" (4.0) then $20 sales would calculate the NM price around $54, based on the "low grade" sales around $20.
But if every copy sold was "Very Good" (4.0), then how often does a NM copy come along?

I'm already debating with myself about the price guide calculations due to unrelated flexibility for how long it has been since a copy sold.
If there's a book that sold for $50 two years ago, the fact that it sold for $50 means the book is likely in demand, and the fact that it hasn't sold in two years means that demand may have grown.
But, what should the price guide estimate for the next copy if $50 was two years ago? $80? $150? What if three copies came up for sale at once? Maybe $50 is too high.

Now, throw the variants into the mix...
Suppose a 1:50 variant for a book last sold in 2016 for $50 stays valued at $50, but a recent sale of the 1:20 variant for the same book was $65.
Seems like the 1:50 variant should go up based on the 1:20 sale, even though a 1:50 hasn't come to market in years... and if the 1:50 guide price should go up... how much?

Let's get a little more crazy and suggest that the CGC prices are actually some kind of a reflection of the ungraded prices.
While a CGC 9.8 might be the most demanded for modern comics, it's likely that CGC 9.6 is much closer to the raw price (if you take off the cost of slabbing).
It's true that most raw copies are NOT worthy of CGC 9.6, but there's a bias built into CGC that only "slab-worthy" copies of books are usually sent to CGC.
As a result, CGC buyers focus on CGC 9.8, when the CGC 9.6 books are usually much better copies than the raw books being sold as "NM+".
CGC 9.8 prices can be crazy, since they have all the demand and they're "above and beyond" the average raw NM copy, but there is something interesting about CGC 9.6.
If a CGC 9.6 books sells for $100, and we don't have any recent sales of raw copies for that book, could we set the price guide estimate for a raw NM price?
I think that the $30 paid for CGC grading should be subtracted from the $100, leaving us with $70.
I also think that a guaranteed 9.6 is a better (raw) book than the average "NM raw copy" which hasn't been sent to CGC (probably because it isn't "slab-worthy").
So, take that $70 for the guaranteed 9.6 ($100 minus grading fees) and divide by 1.5, that is, a guaranteed 9.6 is about 150% of a "raw NM" that isn't (yet) "slab-worthy".
Seems like $47 would be a fair NM raw guide price for a book that sells for $100 in CGC 9.6... since $47 plus $30 would be $77, and there's no guarantee that the $47 book would be 9.6.
So, even without any raw sales recorded, could we use the CGC 9.6 sale price ($100) to help us get to the NM raw guide price ($47)?

Thoughts?

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by greg »

tl;dr

A guide is just a guide.

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by greg »

I just recalculated guide prices using as much available data as possible. Hopefully, nothing changed significantly (or it would mean the guide has been way off).

If you want to take a look...
http://www.valiantfan.com/guide" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by kjjohanson »

I found an error in the guide (looks like two variants combined into one listing):

http://www.valiantfan.com/issue/show/x30_25" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I believe the image here is the "preorder" variant; shops that pre-ordered the book in advance could order as many as they wanted. I think the Sandoval art is the 1:25. Not sure which is worth the value listed. (The advanced preorder cover would have probably been available for cover price, but then, how many shops actually preordered them?)
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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by greg »

kjjohanson wrote:I found an error in the guide (looks like two variants combined into one listing):

http://www.valiantfan.com/issue/show/x30_25" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I believe the image here is the "preorder" variant; shops that pre-ordered the book in advance could order as many as they wanted. I think the Sandoval art is the 1:25. Not sure which is worth the value listed. (The advanced preorder cover would have probably been available for cover price, but then, how many shops actually preordered them?)
Thanks, I will see if I can figure that one out.

Here's a fun one that I haven't fixed yet...
X-O Manowar (2017) #1 has a ComicsPro variant and a ComicsPro variant.

One (Massafera) sells for about ten times the other one.

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by Speedy »

Absolutely amazing!!!

Its nice to have a guide out there ...

Continue the good work ... much appreciative.

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by The Dirt Gang »

greg wrote: "These rain are cold!" then you deserve the looks you get.

:lol:

Thanks for the breakdown. Really interesting. Keep up the great work! It is appreciated.
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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by jmatt »

This is a great resource, many thanks. :thumb:

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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by kjjohanson »

I find the entry for Unity #1 Midtown Exclusive interesting. People are paid $25 dollars for it when it's still available from Midtown at their normal exclusive price ($10)?
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Re: Valiant Price Guide - commentary...

Post by greg »

If it looks wrong in my price guide, it probably is. Check the sales history in detail, or check Ebay to get more info. The automated sales calculator can be thrown off by unusual sales like original art pages or "5 copies of X" for one price.


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